Redskins-Giants Betting Preview: Are the Rebuilding Giants Worth a Bet?
USA Today Sports. Pictured: Adrian Peterson, Saquon Barkley
Betting odds: Washington Redskins at New York Giants
- Spread: PK
- Over/Under: 42.5
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- TV channel: FOX
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Betting market: Since falling to 1-6 on the season, the Giants appear to be in full fire-sale mode, trading cornerback Eli Apple and defensive tackle Damon “Snacks” Harrison this week.
Eighty-three percent of tickets and dollars wagered have come in on the ‘Skins (see live betting data here), and don’t expect that to change as recreational bettors are going to want no part of the rebuilding (tanking) Giants. — PJ Walsh
Trends to know: The Giants are currently receiving just 17% of spread tickets at home against the Redskins.
In Eli Manning’s career, he has only closed with fewer than a quarter of spread tickets at home twice — as a rookie in 2004 against Steelers and Eagles.
The Giants lost both games. — Evan Abrams
Don’t expect the Giants to completely fade away in this spot. Over the past decade, Manning has made eight home starts against a divisional opponent that was better than .500 both straight up and against the spread according to our Bet Labs data.
The Giants are only 3-5 SU and 5-3 ATS, but in none of those games did New York lose by more than one possession. — Abrams
Did you know? The Giants — currently sitting as a PK — have been listed as a home underdog in nine consecutive Eli Manning starts, the longest such streak of Manning’s career (they are 2-7 SU and 3-6 ATS).
Manning has been listed as an underdog in 14 consecutive games, the longest active streak in the NFL. — Abrams
Biggest mismatch: Odell Beckham Jr. vs. Redskins Secondary
Redskins cornerback Quinton Dunbar (shin) suffered an injury in practice last week and missed Week 7. He has reportedly suffered nerve damage and can’t run without pain. Head coach Jay Gruden is unsure of what to expect from Dunbar moving forward. If he’s able to play in Week 8, he’ll almost certainly be limited, but he seems unlikely to suit up.
Filling in for Dunbar at right corner will probably be backup Greg Stroman, who got the start in Week 7. Stroman is a seventh-round rookie who has played just 58 coverage snaps. He’s been targeted nine times, allowing a 6-122-2 receiving line in his limited action.
With his 43.3 Pro Football Focus coverage grade, Stroman will be one of the lowest-graded defensive backs playing regular snaps this week.
Beckham should have a field day against Stroman, especially since Redskins free safety Montae Nicholson has allowed a 75% catch rate as a defender and has a PFF coverage grade (45.5) almost as bad as Stroman’s.
Beckham is top five in the league with his 30% market share of targets and 40% share of air yards: Even if the Redskins provide their rookie with safety help, OBJ should be able to dominate Stroman’s side of the field. — Matthew Freedman
Which team is healthier? Giants
After placing linebacker Ray-Ray Armstrong on injured reserve, the Giants released him earlier this week. Linebacker Alec Ogletree (hamstring) might not be able to suit up Sunday.
The offense is dealing with injuries to right guard Patrick Omameh (knee) and receiver Russell Shepard (neck), but it is otherwise fairly healthy.
The Redskins skill position group could once again be depleted, as receiver Jamison Crowder (ankle), running back Chris Thompson (ribs) and receiver Paul Richardson (shoulder/knee) all aren’t guaranteed to suit up Sunday.
Washington’s secondary depth could be tested if cornerbacks Fabian Moreau (ankle) and Dunbar (shin) are ultimately unable to play.
DFS edge: The Redskins haven’t asked Josh Norman to shadow over the past season and a half, so viewers unfortunately won’t get to see constant interactions between him and Beckham.
The Manning experience will continue to hurt Beckham’s ceiling, but his weekly floor is still high thanks to his status as one of just four players with at least 80 targets this season.
Holding Beckham to fewer than 100 yards or out of the end zone is considered a victory, but OBJ has largely won his on-field battle with Norman, posting 6-76-1, 7-121-0 and 5-44-0 (despite playing only 67% of snaps) lines in three career matchups.
Metrics that matter: The Giants’ projected decrease in Run Stop Percentage
The Giants trading Harrison to the Lions is not good news for a defense that was already a below-average 22nd in DVOA vs. the run.
Harrison was tied for third among interior lineman in Run Stop Percentage (14.3%), a Pro Football Focus metric that measures the rate of snaps where a defender makes a tackle that constitutes as a loss for the offense.
Also, Armstrong had by far the Giants’ best Run Stop Percentage among linebackers (10.3%).
Outside of defensive end Kerry Wynn, who is first among edge defenders with a 17.3% Run Stop Percentage, the Giants’ front doesn’t have any plus run defenders to speak of.
The Redskins’ run game has been solid this season, clocking in at 13th in DVOA.
With running backs Adrian Peterson (ankle/shoulder) and Thompson likely to play, wide receivers Crowder and Richardson iffy, and a banged-up defense of their own, the Redskins will likely want to lean on the run vs. New York’s depleted run-stopping unit. — Chris Raybon
Bet to watch: Redskins PK
The Giants have gone into full tank mode with the trades of Apple and Harrison.
Harrison has been one of the best run stoppers in the NFL for years, and I think these two losses will cripple an already-mediocre defense.
The Redskins are finally getting healthy and they’re just the better team. I can’t believe the Giants are still starting Manning.
I would consider looking at Redskins alternative totals, as well. — Peter Jennings
Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.