Redskins-Eagles MNF Betting Preview: Can Colt McCoy Hang With Philly in Prime Time?
USA Today Sports. Pictured: Colt McCoy, Fletcher Cox
Betting odds: Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles
- Spread: Eagles -6
- Over/Under: 45
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- TV channel: ESPN
>> All odds as of Sunday evening. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets
Betting market: Even though Colt McCoy was tossing picks left and right on Thanksgiving Day, we’ve seen some sharp action come in on the Redskins.
The Eagles are getting 55% of bets as of writing (see live data here), but the Redskins are getting 56% of the money and have moved off the key number of +7 to +6 since opening.
Sharp action has also hit the over, as the total has gone from 44 to 45 behind 80% of dollars and a steam move. — Mark Gallant
Weather report: Early forecasts are calling for wind speeds higher than 10 mph in Philly, which typically bodes well for the under.
Divisional games have gone under almost 60% of the time with double-digit winds and nearly 70% of the time when the game has been played in December. — Gallant
Trends to know: The Redskins are 7-4 against the spread while the Eagles are 3-8 ATS. Since 2003, it’s been profitable to bet bad ATS teams against good ATS teams from Week 6 on.
Philly is a match for this system on Monday night. — John Ewing
Biggest mismatch: Eagles’ Pass Rush vs. Redskins’ Offensive Line
The Redskins are starting two backups on the offensive front with Brandon Scherff (pec) and Shawn Lauvao (knee) on IR, which means McCoy could see consistent pressure against Pro Football Focus’ No. 1 graded defense in rushing the passer.
Fletcher Cox, Brandon Graham, Michael Bennett and Chris Long are the defensive linemen at the forefront of this attack, combining for 189 pressures and 22 sacks, per PFF. — Justin Bailey
Which team is healthier? Eagles
The Eagles are expected to welcome back Darren Sproles (hamstring) for the first time since Week 1, while starting running back Josh Adams (hip) is also expected to suit up.
The defense is still dealing with a number of injuries: Starting linebacker Jordan Hicks (calf) will join cornerbacks Avonte Maddox (leg) and Jalen Mills (foot) on the sideline, though Bennett (foot) is tentatively expected to play.
There’s more uncertainty on the Redskins defense as Zach Brown (knee), cornerback Quinton Dunbar (leg) and defensive tackle Matt Ioannidis (shin) are officially questionable.
The offense will welcome back running back Chris Thompson (ribs) and potentially wide receiver Jamison Crowder (ankle), but Adrian Peterson (shoulder) tight end Jordan Reed (back), right tackle Morgan Moses (knee) and slot receiver Trey Quinn (ankle) aren’t 100%, even if they’re ultimately able to play. — Ian Hartitz
DFS edge: Zach Ertz hasn’t seen his role change since the Eagles acquired Golden Tate, and the tight end is still seeing 26.5% of Philly’s target share.
Ertz boasts arguably the highest touchdown upside on the team with 50% of its market share of targets inside the red zone over that same span, and a team-high 33.5% red-zone target share for the season.
He’s tied with Travis Kelce for the highest median projection among tight ends this week. — Bailey
Bet to watch: Redskins +12/Over 39 Tease
Both of these offenses have distinct advantages that should help this game get into the 40s, despite Washington playing with a backup QB.
Getting Thompson back is huge for McCoy, who will have an elite safety valve if his weapons on the outside aren’t getting consistent separation against Philly’s weak secondary.
The Eagles really struggle against pass-catching RBs, ranking 25th per Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric.
Philly seems to have found something with Adams, who’s averaging 5.1 yards per carry in his past three games. He should have plenty of room to run vs. Washington’s 26th-ranked DVOA defense.
I get why the market has Philly favored in this game — playing at home in prime time vs. a backup QB is about as good as it gets — but this tidbit is being overlooked: The Eagles have just eight total takeaways this season.
That’s tied for 31st in the NFL.
I don’t care who’s playing quarterback, it’s hard to cover a big spread if you’re not creating havoc on defense. — Scott T. Miller
Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.