The 5 Best Week 6 NFL Prop Bets & Picks
Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: George Kittle
- There are five Week 6 NFL prop bets offering value for Sunday's main slate of games.
- We outline picks for George Kittle's receiving yards, Deshaun Watson's rushing yards and more below.
NFL player prop bets offer tremendous value on the board every week. They receive less action and money than the traditional bets, so savvy bettors can gain a big edge by reacting to news quicker than the books.
The betting lines for prop bets are often less efficient than NFL sides and totals, opening up attractive opportunities.
One of the best resources to help determine which prop bets to wager on is our FantasyLabs Player Props tool.
We leverage the listed prop bets against our player projections from Sean Koerner, the No. 1 in-season fantasy football ranker in three of the past four seasons.
Each prop bet receives a Bet Quality grade between 1 and 10, with 10 being the biggest edge.
Week 6 NFL Prop Bets & Picks
Here are four props with a Bet Quality of at least 8 for Sunday’s main slate. This season, props with a grade of 8 or higher are 388-260-5 (59.5% win rate) — and my bets in this Sunday column have gone 16-9 so far.
Let’s analyze a player prop in each of the following games:
- Redskins at Dolphins: 1 p.m. ET
- Eagles at Vikings: 1 p.m. ET
- Texans at Chiefs: 1 p.m. ET
- Saints at Jaguars: 1 p.m. ET
- 49ers at Rams: 4:05 p.m. ET
Dolphins QB Josh Rosen
- Opponent: Redskins (1 p.m. ET)
- The Pick: Over 0.5 Passing Touchdowns (-250)
- Bet Quality: 10/10
The Dolphins’ signal-caller is set up to have his best day as a professional. After suffering through a brutal rookie season with Arizona, Rosen claimed the starting job from Ryan Fitzpatrick earlier this season. Earlier this week, Miami head coach Brian Flores declared the quarterback position settled, giving Rosen a chance to prove he is the quarterback of the future.
Coming off their bye week, the Dolphins have an ideal matchup against a Washington team that ranks 29th overall in defensive DVOA. The Redskins have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and a league-worst 13 touchdown passes.
Miami brings a decent stable of playmakers, including wideouts DeVante Parker and Preston Williams.
Rosen should also be able to use the pass-catching prowess of running back Kenyan Drake, who ranks inside the top 20 at the position in targets and receptions. Washington has allowed opposing running backs to total 31 receptions and 248 receiving yards over five games this season.
With both defenses rating at the bottom of the league, Rosen will have ample opportunity to post one passing touchdown.
Vikings TE Irv Smith
- Opponent: Eagles (1 p.m. ET)
- The Pick: Over 12.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
- Bet Quality: 10/10
Even in a stubbornly run-first Minnesota offense, Smith figures to get a few opportunities against the Eagles’ pass-funnel defense. Philly ranks fourth-best run DVOA defense, but its secondary is weak overall is the defense has been league-average against opposing tight ends, allowing 227 receiving yards and two touchdowns
Per PlayerProfiler, Smith, a 2019 second-round pick, had increased his snap share for three consecutive weeks leading into last week’s game at New York.
Smith is a much more athletic and dangerous receiving target than teammate Kyle Rudolph. The rookie has 4.63 40-yard dash speed at 6-2, 242, and he’s flashed the ability to rip off decent gains (he had a 14-yard catch nullified by a penalty against the Giants). Rudolph, meanwhile, is being used primarily as a blocker, with only two-plus targets in one less game this season. Against .
We project Smith at 15.5 receiving yards — 20% above his implied total (13 yards).
Texans QB Deshaun Watson
- Opponent: Chiefs (1 p.m. ET)
- The Pick: Under 25.5 rushing yards (-106)
Bet Quality: 8/10
The Texans quarterback is always a threat to run, but this 25.5 rushing yards prop seems too high on the road at Arrowhead Stadium.
While Watson ranks sixth among quarterbacks with 24.4 rushing yards per game, that is skewed by two 40-plus-yard performances in Weeks 1 and 5.
Kansas City has allowed the ninth-most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks, but that is also greatly affected by Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson totaling 46 yards in Week 3. Outside of that game, the Chiefs are allowing just 12.5 quarterback rushing yards per game.
Houston is likely to use running backs Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson to attack Kansas City’s 30th worst run defense DVOA. It is always favorable to control the ball playing on the road against quarterback Patrick Mahomes.
This 8-rated prop is returning favorable juice at -106. I would bet this down to -120.
Saints TE Jared Cook
- Opponent: Jaguars (1 p.m. ET)
- The Pick: Under 33.5 receiving yards (-114)
Bet Quality: 8/10
After his best career season in 2018, tight end Jared Cook has underperformed expectations all season. In five games this season, Cook has only totaled 12 receptions.
The Saints go on the road to face a Jacksonville team that has been tough on opposing tight ends. The Jaguars have only allowed 3.6 receptions per game to opposing tight ends.
With New Orleans quarterback Teddy Bridgewater averaging only 3.4 air yards per attempts (PlayerProfiler), Cook will need to generate yards after the catch to go over this prop number.
However, he only ranks 37th among all tight ends with 35 total yards after the catch.
With the return of cornerback Jalen Ramsey, the Jacksonville pass defense will again be at full strength. While Cook has exceeded this prop twice this season, this is an unlikely spot against a stingy Jacksonville defense.
We project Cook at 30.7 receiving yards, 12% below his implied total of 34.6.
49ers TE George Kittle
- Opponent: Rams (4:05 p.m. ET)
- The Pick: Under 75.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
- Bet Quality: 9/10
Fantasy owners celebrated Kittle’s first touchdown of the season in San Francisco’s 31-3 destruction of Cleveland on Monday Night Football. His 20.8 PPR points ranked him as the top fantasy tight end in Week 6.
However, it was also Kittle’s first game eclipsing 60 receiving yards this season, and it still did not exceed this week’s over/under of 75.5 receiving yards.
On Friday, Kittle popped up on the injury report as questionable.
San Francisco is the most run-heavy team in the league (57% of plays), and quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo only ranks 26th at the position with 113 passing attempts.
The 49ers will be without both starting tackles (Mike McGlinchey and Joe Staley), which could result in more blocking assignments for Kittle.
With a run-heavy offense, limited receiving production this season, a Friday injury, and a divisional road game, this is a good spot to fade a big Kittle performance.
Our FantasyLabs props tool projects Kittle at 64.7 receiving yards, 12% below his implied total.