Last season, the first round of the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff was a snoozer.
All four matchups went the way of the favorite. The average margin of victory for Notre Dame, Ohio State, Penn State, and Texas was 19 points.
A pair of massive spreads in the Tulane-Ole Miss rematch and the 12-5 matchup in Eugene isn’t inspiring confidence that we will avoid a repeat of the 2024 blowout parade.
With that in mind, I’m putting together a four-leg parlay, selecting one prop or exotic from each matchup to keep things interesting, even if there is a blowout (or two).
And there’s a Rollover Strategy tagged onto the end of this article if you’re looking for a big payout.
Read on for our college football parlays and three exotic bets for the first round of the College Football Playoff.
Alabama vs Oklahoma Parlay
The wind is going to be howling in Norman on Friday night.
Sustained winds in the 15 to 20 MPH range are expected, with gusts up to 35 MPH.
That’s bad news for these quarterbacks when they try to push the ball downfield.
Let’s start with Ty Simpson, who was battered by the Oklahoma defense in their first meeting.
Despite the Tide generating 406 total yards of offense, Simpson was forced into three turnover-worthy plays, which was a season-high. He was pressured on 11 dropbacks and sacked four times.
If Simpson is consistently in known passing situations, he’s going to have no choice but to put the ball in tight windows while staring down a powerful pass rush.
R Mason Thomas returns for Oklahoma as well, only upping the ante in terms of the pressure Simpson will see from the Sooner front.
After a nearly flawless first two months (one interception), Simpson has been pressing as of late, and those poor decisions and throws have translated to four interceptions in his past four games.
On the other side of this matchup, John Mateer has simply not been the same quarterback he was before the injury.
His legs give this offense a chance to move the football and finish off drives in the paint when they get inside the ten. But when it comes to spinning it, he just doesn’t have it lately.
Mateer is a liability through the air when he’s not firing off passes in the quick game. Ben Arbuckle’s dink-and-dunk scheme keeps most of its action within a pickleball court (8.3 aDOT, 76th nationally).
When Mateer has pushed the ball beyond ten yards downfield, his efficiency has really fallen off. His throws that have flown between 10 and 20 air yards downfield connect at just a 50.7% clip, with nearly as many interceptions (four) as touchdowns (five).
Deep shots have been even worse for Mateer, with a completion percentage of 31.4% on his tosses 20-plus yards downfield.
And critically, he’s given defenses plenty of chances to take the ball away since he sustained his hand injury. Since his return from surgery, he has had three big-time throws to 13 turnover-worthy plays.
The combination of the wind, these defenses, and the pressure of playoff football should lead to at least one pick per passer.
Picks: Each Starting QB To Throw An Interception (+116, Hard Rock)
Miami vs Texas A&M Player Prop
The Shaun Alexander Freshman of the Year Award finalist has quietly become the Hurricanes’ offensive engine over the past month.
Malachi Toney has found paydirt in each of his past three games, totaling four in total against North Carolina State, Virginia Tech, and Pitt.
Shannon Dawson, Miami’s offensive coordinator, found so many different ways to get Toney the football, and it’s paying off. Toney has received 31 total targets in his past two games alone, plus eight additional carries.
It’s also easy to see that it’s only a matter of time before he takes a punt to the house, and Texas A&M has a leaky punt coverage team. The Aggies have allowed 10.7 yards per punt return (102nd nationally).
I also like how he’s been used in Miami’s toughest tests this season.
When Mario Cristobal’s ‘Canes have faced their best competition, Toney has been the focal point. Three games against ranked opponents for the Canes have resulted in four Toney touchdowns.
There could be some wind whipping around at field level on Saturday morning, but that won’t stop Dawson from getting Toney the rock.
He’s a Percy Harvin throwback kind of player, which means they’ll move him all over the field, making it very difficult for the Aggies to double him effectively. You’ll see pre-snap motion, bubble/tunnel screens, and Toney line up as the Canes’ Wildcat quarterback.
By the end of this game, he should have 12 to 15 targets, three to four carries, and a few punt returns.
When you consider that kind of usage, -120 is a deal.
Picks: Malachi Toney Anytime TD (-120, DraftKings)
Tulane vs Ole Miss Alternate Spread
Tulane got smashed in its first meeting with the Rebels for two reasons.
The wave couldn’t throw it, and they couldn’t get a stop to save their life.
Jake Retzlaff got benched in that game, and Ole Miss called off the dogs after building up a 45-3 lead midway through the fourth quarter.
I don’t put much stock in team morale, or even try to measure it that often, because sometimes overly emotional teams can press too hard or run out of steam once the adrenaline wears off.
But in this case, I have to consider the narrative surrounding this game.
Lane Kiffin left them in the lurch, tried to take the entire coaching staff with him, and then lied to the media about all the players wanting him to stay on for the CFP run.
This team wants to prove that they’re more than Lane Kiffin, and retaining Pete Golding and offensive coordinator Charlie Weis Jr. for this run gives them the kind of coaching stability to repeat their performance from earlier this season against Tulane.
Add in a wild scene at Vaught Hemingway Stadium in Oxford, and a blowout win for the Land Sharks has to be on a potential betting menu.
Aside from the narratives and the emotion, I’d like to point out that Tulane has some issues to consider, especially on offense.
While the Wave improved in AAC play, it was against a handful of lousy defenses.
The best defense they faced after the Ole Miss game was East Carolina, which finished 54th in SP+ on that side of the ball.
The Green Wave were lucky to pull that one out, squeezing past the Pirates, 26-19. Tulane had to settle for four field goals in that game, three of which came in the red zone.
That was an issue all season long for Sumrall’s bunch. Tulane finished 99th nationally in Red Zone touchdown percentage — you can’t hang with Ole Miss by kicking field goals.
The last piece of this blowout game script is Trinidad Chambliss.
I’m shocked that he’s flown so far under the radar; perhaps his absence from award season is to blame. Had he started all 12 games this season, instead of 10, his stats would have looked like this:
- 29 Total TDs
- 3,600 Passing
- 560 Rushing
Does that get him to New York City? Probably.
He was simply unflappable. And he’s a big-play artist.
His 22 big-time throws only trailed Simpson and Pavia in the SEC, but he wasn’t throwing caution to the wind on a game-by-game basis. His 1.8% turnover-worthy play rate (seven TWPs in ‘25) was the third-lowest among Power Conference quarterbacks.
Weis Jr. protects him by heavily featuring the quick game, zone reads, and a bevy of RPOs built around the idea that no matter what the defense does, there’s a way to make them wrong.
UTSA’s offense shredded Tulane at home, Memphis threw for 368 yards on Tulane (some yardage with a backup QB), and North Texas had 415 yards in total offense; the Mean Green just killed themself with five turnovers.
My point here is that Tulane doesn’t have the horses to slow down Chambliss and Kewan Lacy, who is a yards after contact demon (86 missed tackles, first among Power Four backs).
Picks: Ole Miss -27.5 (+275, bet365)
James Madsion vs Oregon Parlay
Let’s get this out of the way right off the bat: this Oregon team is excellent and should give Texas Tech all they can handle in the CFP Quarterfinals.
But let’s not pretend the Ducks are the 2001 Miami Hurricanes.
Oregon needed overtime to beat Penn State, trailed Iowa in the final minute, and was up five on Washington with eight to go.
Why do I bring these teams up? Because I consider James Madison to be in that class.
The Dukes also have a profitable formula for a dog catching a lot of points.
They have a quality defense that is a borderline top 20 unit nationally when you adjust for opponent.
They play like a pseudo Service Academy in that they run it a ton (11th nationally in rush rate), huddle and rotate personnel slowly (122nd in seconds between plays), and almost always win the time-of-possession battle (third).
And they have a head coach who really performs well when “punching up.”
Dating back to 2021, Chesney led FCS Holy Cross and James Madison out on the field against ranked FCS opponents and Power Four FBS competition six times. His against-the-spread record in those six games comes in at 5-1 with two straight-up wins.
Most people are handicapping this game by pointing to Oregon’s advantages in the trenches. Some think that the Ducks will run over James Madison, but that would be a first this season.
James Madison may have the best run defense to ever compete at the Group of 5 level.
The Dukes allowed less than eight feet per carry (2.48 yards), and just 76.2 yards per game on the ground. They rank second nationally in Rushing Success Rate allowed, second in Defensive Line Yards, and fifth in Stuff Rate. They also generated 378 negative yards (eighth) with sacks and tackles for loss.
Keep in mind, when the Dukes drew Louisville earlier in the year (15th in Rushing Success Rate), the Cardinals mustered just 113 yards on 3.8 yards per carry. That was with the uber-explosive Isaac Brown toting the rock.
I keep harping on the run game because of one key trend.
The Ducks were 8-4 ATS this season. In the eight covers, they ran for 237.5 yards per game on the ground at a 6.1 yards-per-carry clip. In the Ducks’ four ATS losses, those numbers shrank to 180.3 YPG and 5.1 YPC.
James Madison will find a way to muck this game up, which is why I’m taking the points.
As for the Alonza Barnett III touchdown, I have to give credit to Collin Wilson for spotting this one.
This number is way off, given how integral he is to JMU’s run game, specifically in the red zone. He has 14 rushing touchdowns this season, with the lion’s share coming after he shook the rust off in September.
He was returning from a knee injury and needed some reps before he felt 100% confident in his ability to cut on it. Once he did, he found the end zone with regularity.
Among quarterbacks, he finished with the fifth most rushing scores, and since mid-October, he’s crossed the goal line nine times in seven games while averaging 11 carries per game.
Use his mispriced ATD odds (+260) to pay for a point or two to get this spread back above 21 in this same-game parlay.
Picks: James Madison +21.5 & Alonza Barnett III Anytime TD (+356, FanDuel)
Rollover Strategy
Because these plays aren’t parlayable, I have a solution: Rolling Bets.
Because these kickoffs are spread out on Friday and across time slots on Saturday, you can roll winnings into the next play.
Here’s how it would work, starting with one unit and rolling the winnings and initial wager into the next play:
- Initial Bet on Oklahoma-Alabama: 1 unit
- Rollover Bet on Miami-Texas A&M: 2.16 units
- Rollover Bet on Tulane-Ole Miss: 3.96 units
- Rollover Bet on James Madison-Oregon: 10.3 units
Potential Payout: +36.7 units
