2022 Super Bowl Props: Rams vs. Bengals Bets, Feat. 1H Under, Timeouts, Field Goal Prop Bets, Sacks, Predictions
Getty Images. Pictured: Rams head coach Sean McVay, Rams DT Aaron Donald and Bengals K Evan McPherson
Looking for the top game prop bets to make for the 2022 Super Bowl?
Our experts break down the odds for some of the more wild props we'll see on Super Bowl Sunday — ranging from field goals to sacks to who calls the first timeout — plus their favorite bets and predictions.
Whether you're a new member aboard the Evan McPherson hype train, a long-time Aaron Donald fan ready for him to put up big plays or just someone looking to dazzle your friends when they found out you hit on these wild wagers, you won't want to miss the 19 prop bets our experts outline below.
2022 Super Bowl Props
Super Bowl Game Props
Winner of Coin Toss to Defer -500
Chris Raybon: The Bengals won the coin toss 11 times this season; they deferred all 11 times. The Rams won 10 coin tosses; they deferred all 10 times. All of the Rams’ opponents deferred, and the Jets were the only team not to defer against the Bengals.
This is (basically) free money.
Bet to: -1900
First Play of the Game: Pass
Chris Raybon: The Rams have passed on 40% of their first plays, but the Bengals have done so a whopping 90% of the time. Average the two, and you get 60%. Even if you bake in some regression because of Super Bowl nerves, it’s hard to argue this shouldn’t at least be 50/50.
This is a better way to get some positive expected value than betting the coin toss.
Bet to: +100
No Score In the First 6 Minutes
Chris Raybon: Both the Rams and Bengals scored in the first six minutes of games 20% of the time this season. The Bengals allowed a score in the first six minutes 25% of the time, while the Rams allowed a score in the first six minutes 14% of the time.
Average everything out, and the odds of each team not scoring in the first six minutes are roughly 80%, meaning the odds of neither scoring should be no lower than 60% — and that’s before factoring in that offenses tend to get off to slow starts in the Super Bowl.
Bet to: -150
Which Team Will Call the First Timeout? Rams
Sean Koerner: Typically I ignore these types of props as you're essentially betting on a coin toss, but this prop offers a sneaky edge as the Rams should be closer to -150 to call the first timeout.
The NFL's Michael Lopez conducted an in-depth study on how coaches use their timeouts. And according to Lopez's findings, Sean McVay leads all head coaches with 2.9 unnecessary timeouts per game. If you've ever watched a Rams game, this makes sense, as McVay is very liberal in how he uses his timeouts.
I would also assume (in theory) that the first timeout called in every game is "unnecessary," so I did some digging to see if the Rams were the first team to call a timeout over the past few games. I was blown away to find out that they have called the first timeout in nine(!) straight games.
Considering McVay's use of "unnecessary" timeouts and the recent trend of the Rams being the first team to call a timeout in their games, I'm willing to back a prop I typically ignore.
Bet to: -130
Highest-Scoring Half: Second
Raheem Palmer: This is a prop I play almost every Super Bowl based on the nature of the modern NFL. Even NFL games that start off slow and are lower-scoring tend to take on a life of their own, and when one team gets behind and finds themselves in a negative game script, they needing to throw their way back into the game.
The Super Bowl is notorious for this.
First quarters tend to be lower-scoring as teams don’t want to throw the game away and opt for a more conservative approach. We can expect that from Zac Taylor and Sean McVay, who will have no problems relying on Joe Mixon and Cam Akers early on.
In the last 24 Super Bowls, the first quarter has been the highest-scoring quarter in just one. With the first 12 minutes of the Super Bowl typically being lower-scoring, we’re essentially just fading a second-quarter scoring outburst in order to win this best.
Bet to: -145
1H Under 24.5
Brandon Anderson: We could eventually see fireworks in Super LVI with as much offensive firepower as both sides have, but I expect a slow start for these teams.
The Bengals had the fourth-worst first-quarter offense by Football Outsiders' DVOA, and the Rams' defense is the best the Bengals have faced all season, ranking second in first-half DVOA. The Bengals have stayed very run-heavy on early downs to a fault, which could put them in a negative game script early and often against a terrific Rams run defense. Both offensive lines are a bit shaky, and quarterbacks with less time aren’t as successful, which could translate to a lower-scoring start while they adjust.
Add in how conservatively both coaches have been all postseason, and I expect a slow start.
Bet to: 23.5
More First Downs: Rams
Raheem Palmer: The Bengals should struggle with protection and have been out-gained in every game of this postseason. I expect the Rams to move the ball down the field just like the Raiders, Titans and Chiefs. And without many big plays, the Rams should hit this prop.
Bet to: -160
Any Player To Rush For 100+ Yards? No
Sean Koerner: This Super Bowl features two very good passing attacks that have struggled to rush the ball lately.
My simulations give Joe Mixon and Cam Akers around only a 12% chance each of going for more than 100 yards. Mixon has topped 100 yards in three games this season — all three of those performances came in games where the Bengals either won by 20+ points or faced a bottom-five run defense. The Rams' defense also ranks fifth in DVOA against the run.
Neither QB has a chance of hitting 100 rush yards, and the only way backups Samaje Perine or Sony Michel have a shot at this would be if Mixon or Akers go down, and it's very unlikely anyone would be able to clear 100 yards in less than a full game.
I’m giving this around a 78% chance of hitting and a fair line should be closer to -350.
Bet to: -275
Shortest Field Goal Made Over 27.5 Yards
Sean Koerner: Obviously if either kicker gets a field goal inside 27 yards, this prop is toast. That’s why we would want to find the chances of either kicker seeing an attempt inside 27 yards!
Combined, 12.5% of Evan McPherson's and Matt Gay’s attempts have been inside of 27 yards this season. Looking at the field-goals made market (under 3.5 is -140 at time of writing), it’s safe to say the most likely number of field goals made is three.
My simulations are giving this approximately a 60% chance of hitting. Double check with your specific book rules, but if no field goal is made, this prop will be voided.
Bet to: -130
Both Teams to Kick 2+ FGs
Brandon Anderson: These offenses have too much firepower to be held down for long, so I’m not exactly expecting a 13-3 final score like the last Rams Super Bowl. Still, these defenses are playing well while the offenses are moving the ball but often settling for field goals, so I’m looking to play a number of field-goal props — especially with how conservatively Sean McVay and Zac Taylor are coaching this postseason.
Rams kicker Matt Gay has made multiple field goals in 14-of-19 (74%) games this season with nine field goal attempts in the playoffs at three per game. He should have a good shot of hitting at least two.
As for Bengals kicker Evan McPherson, two field goals is a half-a-game for him right now. He’s gone 4-for-4 in all three playoff matchups and has made multiple in seven straight games, averaging 3.1 makes during that stretch.
At +250, the books are implying only a 29% chance of both teams hitting multiple field goals. If each team has a 50/50 shot of multiple field goals, then we’re at 25% to win this bet. Considering I would put the odds for each team closer to 75% than 50%, these plus-odds lean heavily in our favor. Let’s kick some field goals!
Bet to: +200
Total FG Yards Over 120.5
Brandon Anderson: You’ve already read why I love the kickers in this game, with plenty of offense but just enough defense to stall and force field goal attempts. That means we have to like this cumulative field goal yardage.
At 120.5 yards, we’re not going to get there with only two field goals, so we need at least three. But will three do the trick? If one of them is a 50-yard field goal, then we need the other two to be only 35 yards each — and remember, that includes the 17 yards from the line of scrimmage and the end zone, so those two kicks could be in the red zone.
McPherson in particular has a big leg and the Bengals have shown a willingness to kick from anywhere. He’s had five field goals of 40+ yards in the playoffs, including three from 50 or beyond. I like our chances of hitting this prop with just three field goals if we see one from deep. And since I believe we have an excellent shot at four or more, at just 30 yards per kick, I have to like this over.
Bet to: -135
Bengals Super Bowl Props
Bengals First Drive Outcome: Punt
Raheem Palmer: Zac Taylor has the tendency to look to establish the run early with Joe Mixon, something that won’t be very successful against a Rams defense that's fourth in defensive rushing DVOA.
The Bengals pass the ball on just 52% of early downs, 20th in the NFL. Given the issues with the offensive line, you have to expect Taylor to opt to run the ball early. And with the Bengals ranking 28th in Rushing Expected Points Added (EPA) per play and 21st in rushing success rate, I’m expecting an early three-and-out to start the game.
Bet to: -148
Bengals First Drive Outcome: Punt
Brandon Anderson: The Bengals faced the easiest slate of defenses of any team in the regular season, per Football Outsiders. They had only three games against teams that finished in the top 11 in defensive DVOA — and they lost all three of them and scored 10 fewer points per game in those.
The Rams defense is fantastic and rates as the toughest test this Bengals offense will have faced all season, which likely means it’ll take some time to adjust. We know the Bengals offensive line will have its hands full against this outstanding Rams pass rush, and LA’s defense is especially good in the first half, ranking second in DVOA on the season.
The Bengals are an adjustment team, but that means it usually takes them a bit to get going. Sure enough, their offense ranked just 29th in DVOA.
Add it all up, and I expect a punt on the first Bengals drive for a young, inexperienced team that may need a few minutes to find its footing.
Bet to: -130
Bengals First Scoring Play: FG
Raheem Palmer: A lot of these props are correlated, so if you’re hitting one, you’re likely to hit the other. The Bengals are a combined 3-of-11 in the red zone this postseason, so it’s more likely than not their first score will be a field goal.
With the Bengals opting for a run-heavy attack early, in addition to their pass protection issues, you have to imagine they’ll have a drive stall out. That should mean a field goal before they punch it in for six.
Bet to: +160
Bengals 1H FGs Over 0.5
Raheem Palmer: Did you know the Bengals are a combined 3-of-11 in the red zone this postseason? They’ve had eight drives stall out inside the opponents' 20-yard line. Fortunately for the Bengals, Evan McPherson has been lights-out as a kicker.
When you consider that Super Bowls tend to start off slower than typical games, we should be due for the Bengals to have a drive that stalls out. The Bengals have six field goals in the first half this postseason.
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.
Bet to: -160
Bengals Over 1.5 FGs, Over 2.5 FGs
Brandon Anderson: Can I interest you in one more kicker prop? I’m all in on Evan McPherson, to the point that I’ve sprinkled a little on Money Mac to win Super Bowl MVP at 150-1 odds.
The rookie kicker has been absolute nails for the Bengals all playoffs — all year really. McPherson is a perfect 12-for-12 in the postseason, with four makes in each of the three games. He’s made multiple field goals in seven straight games as this Bengals offense has hit its stride late and Joe Burrow has exploded.
The Bengals will face a steep test in this Rams defense, but I trust the Bengals to at least get into field goal range a few times, and McPherson has a huge leg to hit from just about anywhere on the right-half of the field. Honestly, I can’t believe we’re getting plus-odds to make two field goals, so I have to love that one. But if you’ve been following our NBA work on the Buckets podcast, you know about escalator props by now — much like we sprinkle a portion of our bet on the moneyline when we bet underdogs to cover, we also sprinkle alternate overs on props at times. If McPherson hits our over 1.5, he needs only one more FG to go over 2.5.
At +350, that implies just a 22% chance of three makes, and he’s had four in three straight! Heck, you can even bet on four or more FGs at +1000 at DraftKings if you want a real longshot play.
Bet to: -125 / +275
Bengals To Score More Points In 2H + OT
Samantha Previte: With the game being played at SoFi Stadium, the Bengals will be at a relative disadvantage, which could mean they start out a bit slower than the Rams. This would also follow a trend that we’ve seen in the postseason and all year long.
This bet would have hit in each of the last two games for the Bengals, most notably the AFC Championship, in which the Bengals made a stunning comeback and scored 17 points in the second half plus overtime.
During the regular season, the Bengals averaged just 2.88 points on the road in the first quarter and 6.75 points on the road in the second quarter.
On the road, their third quarter average was 7.38 and fourth quarter average was 9.24 — one of the best away averages in the NFL (only the Steelers, Chargers and Saints had a higher away fourth-quarter average). This illustrates a trend suggesting that the team starts slow and progressively scores more points while on the road.
Bet to: -150
Rams Super Bowl Props
Rams Total Sacks Over 3.5
Samantha Previte: The Bengals offensive line was an absolute dumpster fire once again this season. They allowed the third-most sacks per game (3.4) and allowed a whopping nine sacks just a few weeks ago to the Titans in the Divisional Round.
On the other side of the ball, the Rams have been pretty stout in terms of pass rush and ranked seventh in sacks per game (2.8). Aaron Donald, Leonard Floyd and Von Miller are all healthy for this game, which could be an issue for Joe Burrow.
Bet to: +100
Rams Half Time / Full Game +120
Brandon Anderson: I like the Rams in this game, for a number of reasons I’ve outlined here. They have the better offense, defense and special teams, plus a huge coaching and experience edge at this level. That doesn’t guarantee a victory, but it does give them a great chance of getting off to a strong start.
The Rams have the league’s No. 2 first-half defense by DVOA while the Bengals are a slow-starting team that makes adjustments and often needs to win late and close. I’m picking the Rams in this game, but if you don’t want to drink the moneyline juice and worry about them covering, this is a creative way to play for a Rams win.
Sean McVay is 45-1 in the NFL with a halftime lead, with the lone loss coming in that Week 18 game against the 49ers. If you like the Rams, you should like them early. And if they get the early lead, they almost always hold on.
All the better to get this as a soft moneyline play but at plus-juice.
Bet to: +100
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