2022 Super Bowl Odds: Why Experts Are Betting Rams vs. Bengals Underdog To Cover Spread and Total To Go Under
Getty Images. Pictured: Rams DT Aaron Donald, QB Matthew Stafford; Bengals QB Joe Burrow, RB Joe Mixon
- Super Bowl odds are moving in the final hours before Rams vs. Bengals kicks off from SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles.
- The spread has shifted from Rams -4 to Rams -4.5, though the over/under continues to hold at 48.5 points.
- Find out why we have a near-perfect consensus on the spread, plus a small contingent of experts on the under.
2022 Super Bowl Odds
|Time||6:30 p.m. ET|
|Latest odds via our consensus 2022 Super Bowl odds page.|
It's been a long two weeks since the Rams and Bengals punched their tickets to the 2022 Super Bowl, but the Big Game is finally here.
Super Bowl LVI odds have stayed within a one-point range since opening on Championship Sunday, with the spread settling in the 4- to 4.5-point range after opening Rams -3.5, while the over/under has held around 48.5 after initially falling from 49.5 points (compare real-time Super Bowl odds here).
With ample time to break down the biggest matchup of the NFL season, our experts have arrived at a near-perfect consensus on how to bet the spread and over/under, so let's not waste any more time — find their picks and predictions below.
Super Bowl Spread Predictions
|7 experts||1 expert|
Bengals To Cover Spread
Sean Koerner: Joe Burrow took an unexpectedly massive Year 2 leap for the Bengals. In fact, since Week 14, Burrow has been the best quarterback in the NFL.
Here is where he ranks in three key metrics since then, per Sports Info Solutions:
Joe Burrow Since Week 14:
- Adjusted Net Yards Per Attempt: First
- Quarterback Rating: Second
- Expected Points Added (EPA) Per Play: First
Not only has he been playing at a high level over his past seven games (he sat out Week 18), but head coach Zac Taylor's play-calling has has become much more pass-heavy.
Here is how the Bengals ranked in terms of early-down pass rate in neutral situations:
- Weeks 1-13: 19th
- Since Weeks 14: Fourth
The Rams are the more complete team on both sides of the ball and could benefit from playing in their home stadium. However, I'm projecting them as just three-point favorites against the Bengals.
The fact that we get arguably the hottest quarterback in football at a number he can still cover even if the Rams win by three points — the most likely outcome — I'll take the Bengals.
Rams To Cover Spread
Read Brandon Anderson's full case for betting the Rams to cover the spread in detail here.
Super Bowl Over/Under Predictions
|0 experts||2 experts|
Super Bowl Under Picks
As I detailed in my breakdown of key matchups here, I expect both defenses to sit back in coverage, conceding runs and short passes to the opposing offenses.
The total opened at 49.5, but was bet down to 48.5 with 80% of the money coming in on the under despite 63% of bets coming in on the over as of writing (find the latest public betting data here). The Super Bowl attracts fish like no other game, so I wouldn’t be surprised if the total creeps back up to its initial open by kickoff as more than 60% of the public continues to smash the over.
If the total gets back up to 49.5, the under is a play, as you would win even with a 26-23 score. Regardless of what happens with the full-game over/under, though, I love the first-quarter under 9.5 — as does my colleague Raheem Palmer.
Due to a combination of nerves and generally conservative play-calling, offenses tend to get off to slow starts in the Super Bowl. Since 1999, 64% of Super Bowl first quarters have failed to crack double digits.
These two teams perfectly fit the profile of slow starters, as the Bengals averaged 4.3 points while the Rams averaged 4.0 for a combined average of 8.3 in first quarters this season. Plus, the first quarter under went 14-6 in Rams games and 13-6-1 in Bengals games for a combined record of 27-12-1 (69% hit rate).