2022 Super Bowl Odds, Picks, Predictions: Why Bengals To Cover vs. Rams Is Expert’s Spread Bet For Sunday

2022 Super Bowl Odds, Picks, Predictions: Why Bengals To Cover vs. Rams Is Expert’s Spread Bet For Sunday article feature image

Jim McIsaac/Getty Images. Pictured: Bengals QB Joe Burrow

  • How should you bet Rams vs. Bengals based on the latest 2022 Super Bowl odds?
  • Our Director of Predictive Analytics compared his model to the odds in order to make his spread pick.

2022 Super Bowl Odds

Rams Odds-4.5
Bengals Odds+4.5
Over/Under48.5 (-110/-110)
Time6:30 p.m. ET
Updated odds via our real-time Super Bowl odds page.

The Rams and Bengals had two very different paths to Super Bowl LVI.

A year ago, the Rams decided to ship Jared Goff, a third-round pick and two first-round picks (2022 and 2023) to the Lions in exchange for Matthew Stafford. It was clear the Rams were in "win now" mode, then they doubled down during the regular season by trading for Von Miller and Odell Beckham Jr.

It hasn't always been pretty, but Stafford has led the Rams to their second Super Bowl appearance under head coach Sean McVay.

As for the Bengals, they were 150-1 to win the Super Bowl heading into the season (bet $100 to win $15,000). Their steep odds made sense considering the AFC North was loaded with Super Bowl-caliber rosters in the Ravens, Browns and Steelers. However, Joe Burrow took a massive Year 2 leap, and former LSU teammate and 2021 first-round pick Ja'Marr Chase helped take Burrow's game to the next level.

In fact, since Week 14, Burrow has been the best quarterback in the league. Here is where he ranked in three key metrics, per Sports Info Solutions:

Joe Burrow Since Week 14

  • ANY/A: First
  • QB Rating: Second
  • EPA/play: First

Not only has Burrow been playing at a high level since Week 14, but Bengals head coach Zac Taylor has become much more pass heavy when it comes to his play-calling.

Here is how the Bengals ranked in terms of early-down pass rate in neutral situations:

  • Weeks 1-13: 19th
  • Weeks 14-present: Fourth

Super Bowl Spread Prediction

The Rams are the more complete team on both sides of the ball and could benefit from playing in their home stadium. However, I'm projecting them as just three-point favorites here.

The fact that we get arguably the hottest quarterback in football at a number where we will win if the Rams win by three (the most likely outcome), I'll take the Bengals +4 — but no further (compare real-time Super Bowl odds here).

Pick: Bengals +4

Betting the Bengals To Cover Super Bowl Spreads Is A Family Tradition

The last time the Bengals were in the Super Bowl was the 1988 NFL season — right around that time my father started bringing me to the Super Bowl party his friend Rocky would host every year.

These parties certainly weren't G-rated. They would be screaming at the TV, sweating whatever bets they had going that day. They even started doing a prop contest for the Big Game (yes, this may be why I have been obsessed with player props since I was a kid).

These parties fueled my passion for sports betting and the Super Bowl itself at a very young age.

Pictured: Sean Koerner at Rocky's house in 1989

My father had the Bengals +7 in Super Bowl XXIII. And despite losing 20-16, they covered the spread.

The apple didn't fall far from the tree, because 33 years later, I will also be taking the points with the Bengals.

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