2022 Super Bowl Prop Bets: The Ultimate Guide To Betting Rams-Bengals Props Feat. Our Experts’ Top 16 Picks
Getty Images. Pictured: Bengals’ Joe Burrow and Joe Mixon (left), Rams’ Cooper Kupp and Matthew Stafford (right)
Looking for Super Bowl prop bet results? We tracked various touchdown and other player props here, plus novelty results here. You’ll also find grades for our prop sheet here.
The Super Bowl is the biggest prop betting event of the year — and our experts are taking full advantage for Rams vs. Bengals.
The NFL season finale should be a star-studded affair on and off the field at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles, but which player props can you count on amidst the commotion?
Find our NFL betting experts’ top 16 Super Bowl prop bets and predictions below, featuring picks for Joe Burrow, Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Joe Mixon and even Bengals punter Kevin Huber.
2022 Super Bowl Prop Bets
Super Bowl Passing Props
Joe Burrow Over 0.5 INTs
Stuckey: Let’s first take a look at Burrow’s raw numbers for this season.
Including the postseason, Burrow has thrown 16 interceptions in 19 games this year for an average of 0.84 per game, and he has been picked off at least once in 11 of those 19 games (58%).
He also faced a fairly easy schedule of opposing pass defenses. For example, eight of his 19 games came against the seven teams that finished with single-digit interceptions in the regular season if you count both meetings with the Ravens and Raiders.
Now, Burrow will have to face a Rams defense that finished tied for third with 19 interceptions in the regular season, averaging more than one per game and coming down with at least one in 12-of-17 contests. Los Angeles also has four interceptions this postseason, including at least one in each playoff game.
The Rams’ defense also profiles as one that can give Burrow some trouble. They play a high frequency of zone — which Burrow struggles a bit more with, especially two-high safety looks — and should be able to generate plenty of pressure, even without blitzing.
Burrow isn’t shy about trying to fit balls into tight windows, as he ranked second in that category during the regular season. Yes, he’s played in many big games already in his young career — especially when you include his time at LSU — and thrived with 31 touchdowns to just two interceptions in nine “win-or-else” games.
However, this will still mark his first time playing on the biggest stage in sports. And it’s not like he was flawless in the AFC Championship Game with one second-half interception and another that a Chiefs defender dropped.
Bet to: -140
Super Bowl Rushing Props
Joe Burrow Under 12.5 Rush Yards
Sean Koerner: We know that Burrow can scramble when needed, but he hasn’t rushed much this year coming off his ACL tear last season. The Year 2 quarterback has a median of 6.0 rushing yards a game this season and has only cleared this number in three of 19 games (an 84% hit rate for the under).
The Rams play a ton of zone, making it tougher for a quarterback to scramble and making me like this under even more.
I have Burrow going under this 65% of the time.
Bet to: 11.5
Matthew Stafford Under 5.5 Rush Yards
Chris Raybon: Both of these things can be true:
- Matthew Stafford has 22, 6 and 8 yards in three playoff games, and…
- A prop of 5.5 is way too high.
While Stafford has enjoyed some productive rushing stat lines over the past three games, consider two more facts:
- Stafford has been held to two or fewer rushing yards in 13-of-20 games (65%)
- Stafford’s median rushing yardage total this season is 0.5
It’s not like the Rams transitioned to a read-option offense with the 34-year-old Stafford; there’s nothing to suggest this streak is anything other than random variance.
There’s also nothing to suggest the Bengals are a great matchup for quarterbacks running the football. The Bengals held opposing quarterbacks to the 10th-lowest rushing yardage total during the regular season (252), and more than half of those yards came from two quarterbacks: Lamar Jackson and Justin Fields.
Bet to: 4.5
Matthew Stafford Under 5.5 Rush Yards
Stuckey: This under has value due to recency bias in the market after Stafford has gone over his rushing total prop in all three playoff games.
While Stafford has indeed rushed the ball 15 times for 36 times in the playoffs with single-game totals of 8, 6 and 22 yards, that’s a very minuscule sample size for a fairly immobile 34-year-old quarterback who simply doesn’t get around as well as he used to.
Just take a look at his regular-season statistics.
In 17 regular-season games, he amassed a total of 43 rushing yards on 32 attempts or an average of just under two carries per game for 2.5 yards. Even more telling, he would’ve went under 5.5 rushing yards in 13 of those 17 games and had a median rushing output of less than a yard per game.
Even if you include the postseason, he went under 5.5 rushing yards in 65% of his games this season.
He will also face a Bengals defense that I expect to play a lot more zone and blitz even less than usual, which will make scrambles even more difficult. Plus, the Bengals ranked in the top 10 in rushing yards allowed by opposing quarterbacks during the regular season,
Opposing quarterbacks did go over this number in 11 of the Bengals’ 20 games, including the playoffs, but many of those came against some of the NFL’s more mobile quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes (twice), Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields and Trevor Lawrence.
Lastly, keep in mind that the Rams are favored, so you could also get some late kneel downs at the end of the game if they have possession and a lead with a chance to run the clock out. It will only take one broken scramble to ruin this prop, but there’s too much value to pass up here.
Bet to: 5 (-120)
Ja’Marr Chase to Have More Rush Yards Than Cooper Kupp
Sean Koerner: The Bengals have been giving Chase rush attempts in each of their three playoff games and are always trying to find ways to get the ball in his hands. Cooper Kupp has an easy enough time getting targets that the Rams don’t really give him rush attempts, making this line appealing.
Kupp only has two rush attempts with more than two yards all season, whereas Chase has seven — with four of those coming in the playoffs.
I have this at a 70% chance of hitting.
Bet to: -180
Joe Mixon First Rush Attempt Under 3.5 Yards
Sean Koerner: I always love these props for the Super Bowl.
Most running backs average 4+ rushing yards per attempt, but that’s skewed by longer runs, and the median is closer to three or 3.5 yards. For this prop, I have Mixon going under 3.5 yards on his first rush attempt 60% of the time.
His first attempt won’t fool the Rams’ defense, which is ranked fifth in Football Outsiders’ DVOA. Or it might even be a second- or third-and-short situation where he just needs yard. There are a lot of paths to winning this one.
Bet to: -135
Joe Mixon to Have More Rush Yards Than Cam Akers
Chris Raybon: With Darrell Henderson set to return, head coach Sean McVay hinted at plans to use a three-back rotation. It’s not surprising that McVay would stop short of committing to a full-on featured workload for Akers, who has carried 59 times for 154 yards since returning from an Achilles’ tear he suffered in July.
That gives Akers three ways he could fall short of expectations:
- Henderson and Sony Michel could mix in.
- There’s no guarantee that the game script unfolds exactly as the four-point spread suggests, but the Rams playing from ahead is baked into the line.
- Akers could continue being inefficient, as his stat lines in three playoff games are 17 attempts for 55 yards, 24 for 48 and 13 for 48.
Joe Mixon doesn’t share the first concern, as he has carried 52 times this postseason while his backups have combined for three carries. And while Mixon is in danger of a trailing game script, in my Super Bowl preview I talk about how the Bengals will need to run the ball on early downs against a Rams defense that loves to play light boxes, doing so at a 56% clip.
This tendency of the Rams also makes No. 3 less of a concern, as the Bengals are below-average against normal and stacked boxes, but top 10 in yards per carry (4.5) and success rate (45.5%) against light boxes (per SiS).
Bet to: -120
Super Bowl Receiving Props
Cooper Kupp Longest Rec Over 28.5 Yards
Sean Koerner: I was a little surprised to find value on a Cooper Kupp over. I would guess that sportsbooks are taking the majority of money bet on his props on the overs (as expected), but there’s still quite a bit of value on this one.
First, I’m projecting Kupp for closer to 8.0 receptions while books appear to be closer to 8.3-8.4 receptions. And based on my simulations, Kupp’s median for “longest reception” is closer to 33.5 yards.
Here are my projected chances of him going over or under various yards in this range:
Kupp isn’t necessarily a deep threat (8.4 aDot), but he is phenomenal after the catch (6.2 YAC/R). His massive volume also gives him multiple shots to clear this number, which he’s done in 15-of-20 (75%) games this season with a median of 36.
Bet to: 30.5
Cooper Kupp Longest Rec Over 28.5 Yards
Stuckey: I’m following Sean’s lead on this one.
First off, Kupp is pretty much going to get his regardless of the opponent. There’s a reason he broke Michael Irvin’s record for most games in a season (13) with at least 100 receiving yards, including the postseason — with one more game to go. And I don’t see much the Bengals can do to prevent Kupp from putting up his usual gaudy numbers.
Interestingly enough, Kupp would have cashed this prop in 15-of-20 games this season. He could get this on a deep ball or via yards after the catch, which he can do as well as any receiver in the NFL.
He will be facing a Bengals defense that ranked 25th in explosive pass percentage during the regular season, despite facing a fairly easy schedule of opposing quarterbacks. They even got to face the following five backups for either all or part of a game:
- Bears: Andy Dalton/Justin Fields
- Broncos: Teddy Bridgewater/Drew Lock
- Browns: Case Keenum
- Ravens: Josh Johnson
- Jets: Mike White
Kupp, who had 145 receptions during the regular season, has added 25 more in three playoff games. Of those 170 total catches, 21 went for at least 29 yards, which means he averaged more than one such reception per game over the course of the season, including the playoffs.
Bet to: 30
Cooper Kupp Most Rec Yards +120
Samantha Previte: I thought about taking the over on Kupp’s receiving yards, but I see this as an interesting workaround to that with better odds.
Kupp’s receiving yards over/under is 103.5 (-115/-115), which is by far the highest of the field; the next closest is Ja’Marr Chase at 79.5 (-115/-115). That number seems astronomical, but Kupp would have actually eclipsed it in 13-of-20 (65%) games played this season. In fact, Kupp had only one game during the regular season with fewer than 92 receiving yards.
This is all to say that if you think Kupp is going to hit the over, there’s a good chance he’s going to have the most receiving yards in the game. It’s certainly not a stretch given he tallied just shy of 2,000 receiving yards in the regular season (more than 300 additional yards than the No. 2 leader Justin Jefferson).
Kupp had a relatively quiet game in the Divisional Round, but bounced back in a huge way against Tampa and San Francisco and has tallied 325 receiving yards across the last two games.
Bet to: +110
Joe Mixon Over 25.5 Rec Yards
Raheem Palmer: With the Rams’ dominant pass rush putting pressure on Joe Burrow, we could see Mixon catch a few passes out of the backfield as he’ll be needed as a security blanket.
The Rams are just 12th in yards per reception to opposing running backs at 5.6 yards per catch. In addition, they give up the fifth-most yardage on screen plays at 7.1 yards per reception. So while Mixon may struggle to get going through the ground, there will be opportunities for him to make plays as Burrow looks to get the ball out quickly.
Bet to: 27.5
Joe Mixon Over 25.5 Rec Yards
Stuckey: This number is too low based on Mixon’s season-long statistics.
Over the course of 16 regular-season games (he sat out the finale), the former Oklahoma product had 42 receptions (on 48 targets) for 314 yards. That comes out to a game average of only 2.6 catches (on three targets) for 19.6 yards — almost six yards lower than where this prop is set.
However, if you dig a little deeper, you’ll notice the Bengals have involved Mixon in the passing game much more toward the end of the season.
Over his past five games, he’s averaged 43.2 receptions yards and cleared 25.5 reception yards in each, including all three playoff games. This makes sense since the Bengals have gone much more pass-heavy on early downs since Week 14 of the regular season.
I also like this prop for a number of other reasons:
- Mixon should get most of the snaps at running back. This is the Super Bowl.
- The Bengals are underdogs, so the more likely game state is they are playing from behind.
- Los Angeles plays a lot of zone and should be able to get plenty of pressure, so I expect ample check downs and designed screens for Mixon. For what it’s worth, the Rams ranked 24th in DVOA defending running backs in the passing game.
Bet to: 27
Tyler Boyd Over 39.5 Rec Yards
Raheem Palmer: As we saw in the NFC Championship Game against Deebo Samuel, the Rams struggle defending passes in the middle of the field. With Jalen Ramsey on Ja’Marr Chase, Tyler Boyd could be one of Burrow’s security blankets against a Rams team that plays a ton of zone and is weak at linebacker.
With Boyd leading the Bengals in short throws to the middle of the field, I’m expecting him to get his fair share of targets and hit this number rather easily.
Bet to: 40
Super Bowl Total Yardage Props
Samaje Perine Under 15.5 Total Yards
Chris Raybon: Perine took a screen pass 41 yards for the Bengals’ first touchdown in the AFC Championship en route to Super Bowl LVI, which is great. I’m happy for the guy. Me and my Bengals +7.5 ticket thank him. He also caught two of three other targets for two yards. One of them should have probably gone for another touchdown, but he ran his route to the wrong side of the field.
All this to say: Zac Taylor thoroughly exhausted the Perine part of the playbook against the Chiefs.
In Perine’s previous two playoff games combined, he had two touches for six yards — as many touches as third-string back Chris Evans. And going back over his last four games (excluding a meaningless Week 18 game in which he dressed but did not play), Perine had a grand total of six touches for 26 yards.
In his career, Perine is averaging 3.9 yards per carry, 7.1 yards per reception and 4.5 yards per touch, meaning he will likely need three touches to clear this number. That’s happened only once in his last five games.
I’m betting that the AFC Championship was the tendency-breaker and Samaje Perine goes back to being … Samaje Perine.
Bet to: 14.5
Samaje Perine Under 14.5 Total Yards
Stuckey: This prop is obviously related to my Mixon pick, as I expect Mixon will get almost all of the work in the backfield on Sunday. And like my Stafford prop, this number is inflated due to recency bias after Perine had a long (and fortunate) touchdown reception that everyone saw against the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game.
A grown man TD for @samajp32!
Watch on CBS pic.twitter.com/5UY2Q5oRBH
— Cincinnati Bengals (@Bengals) January 30, 2022
Additionally, if you look at his season-long statistics, his prop numbers don’t look too unreasonable — but you have to remember he was getting a fairly heavy workload for about a month-long period while Mixon dealt with an ankle injury.
If you isolate the other 17 games that Perine played, he had 29 carries for 117 yards and 22 receptions for 163 yards. In terms of per-game averages, that translates to 6.9 rushing yards and 9.6 receiving yards. So, you might be saying this number looks fair. But as I said previously, I believe Mixon will get almost all of the work in this game, including almost every single running back carry — barring injury.
If you just look at the past five games, as we did with Mixon, Perine has two total carries for six yards and seven catches for 63 yards. That comes out to an average of 13.8 yards, but almost all of that came on the one screen pass for 41 yards. Remove that one flukey play, and his average total yards drops to 4.4 yards over his past five games.
He also went under this total yardage in the other four games over that span and betting his total yardage as opposed to just either his rushing or receiving yards gives us more leeway if he breaks one play for say 10 yards and doesn’t get any other work.
Assuming my prediction of him getting almost no carries comes to fruition, I’ll take my chances with Perine not breaking another long screen. Hopefully, it’s Mixon who does that this time around.
Bet to: 7.5
Super Bowl Punting Props
Kevin Huber Longest Punt Over 52.5 Yards
Sean Koerner: The Super Bowl is the only game all season we are blessed with punter props, so I always try to take advantage — that’s why I created a simulator just for punter props and have found a pretty big edge on one.
Bengals punter Kevin Huber’s median expectation for “longest punt” should be closer to 55.5 yards. I’m giving him about a 62% chance to clear 52.5 yards. The math checks out, as he has cleared 52.5 yards in 13 of his 20 (65%) games this season.
Here are my projected chances of him going over or under various yards:
As you can see, every yard matters in this market, so it’s critical to lock it in at 52.5 yards or better.
Bet to: 53.5
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