Monday Morning Moneyback: NFL Week 6
Underdogs finished 10-2 ATS yesterday. Eight of those 10 dogs won outright, including the Dolphins and Giants, who won straight up as 13-point underdogs. We haven’t seen a 13-point underdog win outright in the NFL in five years, and it happened twice yesterday.
Road teams fared well ATS in week six at an 8-4 clip, and total bettors saw an equal split (6-6) between overs and unders.
Overall, we experienced a fairly exciting day of football with an average margin of victory of 7.75 points. Seven of the 12 games were decided by a touchdown or less, one of which ended in overtime.
We no longer have any undefeated ATS teams in the NFL, since the Chiefs failed to cover. Additionally, the Cardinals covered for the first time this season.
The Seahawks, Cowboys, Bengals and Bills all had byes this week; only the Texans and Lions have byes next week.
Key Injuries on Sunday:
Bucs QB Jameis Winston – Shoulder (?)
Cardinals CB Patrick Peterson – Quad (?)
Dolphins C Mike Pouncey – Concussion (?)
Jaguars RB Leonard Fournette – Ankle (?)
Lions WR Golden Tate – Shoulder (?)
Lions T Greg Robinson – Ankle (?)
Ravens TE Maxx Williams – Ankle (?)
Ravens WR Breshad Perriman – Concussion (?)
Redskins CB Bashaud Breeland – Knee (?)
Redskins DE Jonathan Allen – Foot (?)
Packers QB Aaron Rodgers – Collarbone (OUT)
Packers T Bryan Bulaga – Concussion (?)
Packers T David Bakhtiari – Hamstring (?)
Packers CB Quinten Rollins – Ankle (?)
Steelers T Marcus Gilbert – Hamstring (?)
Texans LB Dylan Cole – Hamstring (?)
Vikings LB Anthony Barr – Concussion (?)
Vikings WR Michael Floyd – Calf (?)
Dolphins (+13.5) at Falcons
- Talk about a stunner. The Dolphins erased a 17-0 halftime lead to defeat the Falcons in Atlanta by a final score of 20-17. Under 45.5 backers did have to sweat out the possibility of the Falcons tying the game at 20 to force overtime, but a Matt Ryan interception eventually ended those worries.
- Jay Ajayi carried the offense for Miami, rushing for 130 yards on 26 carries. Jay Cutler continues to live and die by the checkdown. He threw the ball 33 times for 151 yards and was fortunate to have his second interception nullified by a roughing the passer penalty.
- This was a really bad loss for Atlanta, especially considering they were coming off of a bye week after a home loss to the Bills. Maybe they were already looking ahead to their Super Bowl rematch with the Patriots next Sunday night?
- Despite failing to reach more than 20 points in any game this year, the Dolphins are 3-2 primarily due to their defense, which now ranks in the top five of almost every category outside of passing yards allowed.
— Chat Sports (@ChatSports) October 15, 2017
Packers at Vikings (+3)
- The Vikings defeated the Packers by a final score of 23-10 on Sunday; the under 46 was never really in doubt once Aaron Rodgers went down. The Vikings, who led 14-10 at the half, outscored the Packers 9-0 in the second half; Green Bay didn’t score in three of the four quarters.
- The headline from this game was obviously Aaron Rodgers going down with a broken collarbone in the first half; it appears he could miss the entire season. The Lions are now the only team in the NFC North to still have their Week 1 starting quarterback.
- The Packers announced they have confidence in Brett Hundley as the starter going forward. Hundley showed some flashes, but finished the day 18-of-33 for 157 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions.
- Jerick McKinnon was the story on offense for the Vikings. He totaled 99 yards on 21 touches and scored two touchdowns. Case Keenum started under center again, as questions linger on Sam Bradford’s status. The good news for Vikings fans is that Teddy Bridgewater might return in the next week or two.
— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) October 15, 2017
Lions at Saints (-6)
- In one of the wildest games of the day, the Saints defeated the Lions by a final score of 52-38. This game featured 20 penalties, eight turnovers and five defensive or special teams touchdowns. Pat yourself on the back if you bet the over 50.5, easily one of the best calls of the day.
- New Orleans actually led this game 45-10 midway through the third quarter before Detroit mounted a furious comeback. The Lions actually had the ball down 45-38 with five minutes remaining, but a Cam Jordan pick six put the game out of reach.
- The Saints’ defense, which might be the surprise unit in the NFL so far this year, totaled 16 deflected passes, five sacks, three interceptions, seven tackles for loss and even scored three touchdowns.
- Believe it or not, the Saints are over .500 for the first time since 2013.
- Mark Ingram was the star of the show for the Saints’ offense, accumulating 150 total yards and two scores on 30 touches.
Patriots at Jets (+9)
- The Patriots erased a 14-0 deficit to defeat the Jets by a final score of 24-17, taking over sole possession of first place in the AFC East. Under 48.5 bettors eventually got to the window, but not without a constant sweat throughout.
- The game turned on a controversial fourth quarter Austin Seferian-Jenkins fumble into the endzone that was overturned from a touchdown to a touchback after review. The Jets, who trailed by 10 at the time, would eventually add a field goal to justly sneak in the backdoor. The Jets actually outgained the Patriots 408-375 mainly thanks to Josh McCown, who threw for 354 yards on 31-47 passing.
- The Patriots are the first defense in NFL history to allow six consecutive quarterbacks to throw for 300-plus yards. The secondary certainly has holes, but it doesn’t help that they continue to struggle generating any type of pass rush.
- Tom Brady became the NFL’s all-time regular season wins leader at 187, passing both Brett Favre and Peyton Manning.
— Josh Jordan (@NumbersMuncher) October 15, 2017
49ers (+10.5) at Redskins
- The Redskins barely held on for a 26-24 win over the 49ers on Sunday. Over 46 bettors cashed their tickets thanks to two touchdowns in the final 3:30. The 49ers actually had the ball late with a chance to drive for a game-winning field goal, but an enormous offensive pass interference call ultimately saved the Redskins.
- Kirk Cousins had a fairly efficient day, spreading the ball out to nine different receivers on 25-of-37 passing for 330 yards. Chris Thompson continued to produce explosive plays, totaling 130 yards on just 20 touches.
- The 49ers are the first team in NFL history to lose five consecutive games by three points or less.
- C.J. Beathard, who the 49ers named as their new starter going forward, took over for an ineffective Brian Hoyer. Beathard finished 19-of-36 for 245 yards and helped the 49ers erase a 17-0 deficit.
— VT Football (@VT_Football) October 16, 2017
Bears (+5.5) at Ravens
- The Bears survived an epic collapse to eventually beat the Ravens in Baltimore by a final score of 27-24 in overtime. It was a tough beat for under 39.5 backers, who must have felt fairly safe after a scoreless first quarter and a 10-3 halftime lead for the Bears. The Bears returned an interception for a touchdown in the second half, and the Ravens had two special team touchdowns in the second half (kick return and punt return).
- Mitch Trubisky (8-of-16, 113 yards) became the first rookie QB to win in Baltimore since Jake Plummer in 1997; John Harbaugh was previously 9-0 against rookie quarterbacks in Charm City. However, the Bears did not rely on their rookie quarterback to secure this road win, as they ran the ball 54 times for 231 yards. Jordan Howard, the feature back on Sunday, rushed for 167 yards on 36 carries.
- Chicago should request a move to the AFC North, since their only two wins this year have come against the Steelers and Ravens; they are 0-4 against the NFC.
- The Ravens’ offense continues to struggle, especially up front. Baltimore finished with only 16 first downs as a result of a 20 percent (3-15) third down conversion rate. Joe Flacco threw two interceptions, but both occurred after wide receiver drops.
— Chicago Bears (@ChicagoBears) October 15, 2017
Browns at Texans (-7.5)
- The Texans rolled the Browns by a final score of 33-17. The Browns outscored the Texans 14-0 in the fourth quarter, producing a pretty misleading final score. Over 46 backers had luck on their side on Sunday; they benefited from two pick sixes and got a last-minute meaningless Browns touchdown drive to push this game over the total.
- Houston scored 34 in four consecutive games for the first time in franchise history. Deshaun Watson, who tied Kurt Warner for the most total touchdowns (16) through a quarterback’s first five starts, appears to be the real deal. RIP Tom Savage.
- There’s not much to write home about with the Browns’ offense. Kevin Hogan, who played the entire game under center, finished with three interceptions and only 140 yards passing on 37 attempts.
- The Browns haven’t won road game in regulation in over 1,000 days.
— Chat Sports (@ChatSports) October 15, 2017
Bucs at Cardinals (+2.5)
- In one of the most misleading final scores of the year, the Cardinals held on to beat the Bucs 38-33. Arizona actually led this game 24-0 at the half and 31-0 early in the third quarter. Over 47 backers were home free just a few minutes into the fourth quarter.
- It was a throwback day for the Cardinals, who relied on their three veterans on offense including newly acquired Adrian Peterson, who rushed for 134 yards and two touchdowns on 26 carries. Carson Palmer had one of his most efficient games of his career, finishing with 282 yards and three touchdowns on 18-22 passing. The ageless Larry Fitzgerald pulled in 10 grabs for 138 yards.
- Ryan Fitzpatrick, not Jameis Winston, actually led the furious Bucs comeback attempt. The former Harvard grad threw for 290 yards and three touchdowns after Winston left the game with an injury in the first half.
Rams (+1) at Jaguars
- Despite being outgained 389-249, the Rams came away with a 27-17 road victory in Jacksonville on Sunday. The Rams led 24-14 at the half, but over 42 backers still had to sweat into the final minutes of the game.
- The Rams’ special teams play was the difference in the game, starting with the opening kickoff, which Pharoh Cooper took 103 yards to the house. Los Angeles also added a touchdown on a punt block and had a 56-yard field goal and a 67-yard punt. Conversely, Jason Myers only connected on one of three field goal attempts; if not for a Rams illegal formation penalty, he actually would have finished 0-3.
- Jared Goff only threw for 124 yards against the NFL’s top pass defense, but Todd Gurley ran the ball 23 times for 116 yards against a Jags defense that continues to struggle against the run.
- Leonard Fournette, who rushed for 130 yards on Sunday, became the second rookie ever to score a touchdown in each of his first six career games. Additionally, Fournette became the first player in NFL history with a 75-plus yard touchdown run on consecutive carries and the first rookie to ever score touchdowns of 75-plus yards in consecutive games. However, make sure you keep your eye on his status against the Colts, as he left with an ankle injury late in the game.
— uSTADIUM (@uSTADIUM) October 15, 2017
Steelers (+4) at Chiefs
- The Steelers traveled to Kansas City and handed the Chiefs their first loss of the season by a final score of 19-13. Pittsburgh dominated the box score, outgaining the Chiefs by almost 200 yards (439-251). The under 46.5 was never really in doubt.
- Kareem Hunt, who only rushed for 21 yards on nine carries, had 89 yards receiving, making him the first player in NFL history with over 100 yards from scrimmage in each of the first six games of a season.
- Le’Veon Bell, who dominated this game from start to finish, has certainly found his legs; the star Steelers back ran the ball 32 times for 179 yards. Ben Roethlisberger ended a streak of seven interceptions without a touchdown on a lucky deflected touchdown pass to Antonio Brown to put the game away late. Brown finished with 155 yards on eight catches.
- The Steelers just seem to have the Chiefs’ number. Since the start of last season, the Chiefs have three losses to the Steelers and three combined losses against the rest of the NFL.
— FanSportsClips (@FanSportsClips) October 15, 2017
Chargers (+3) at Raiders
- Nick Novak kicked a field goal as time expired to give the Chargers a 17-16 win over the Raiders, who dropped their second straight game at home and fourth overall. Props to anyone who hit the under 48, a no doubter from start to finish.
- Derek Carr did play, but it did not help a Raiders offense that continues to struggle; Amari Cooper was nearly invisible once again. All you need to know is Marquette King probably had the best box score day for the Raiders.
— ⚡️LA Chargers ⚡️ (@LAChargersNews) October 15, 2017
Giants (+13.5) at Broncos
- The Giants finished off a bizarre weekend of football by securing their first win of the season with a 23-10 victory in Denver. The Giants led 17-3 at the half and 20-3 at the end of the third quarter. The under 37.5 was never in doubt.
- Janoris Jenkins forces a fumble and returned an interception for a touchdown. Jenkins now leads the NFL in defensive touchdowns since 2012 with seven (tied with Aqib Talib).
- Orleans Darkwa produced one of the more shocking statistical results of the day, running for 117 yards against the best run defense in the NFL. To put that into perspective, Lynch, Gordon, Elliott and McCoy ran for a combined 95 yards on 50 carries against the Broncos defense.
- Denver only ran the ball 18 times for 46 total yards. Trevor Siemian threw the ball 50 times for 376 yards (1 TD/2 INT) in one of the more hollow statistical outputs you will ever see in the NFL. The Broncos might have an issue at kicker; Brandon McManus missed two more field goals on Sunday night.