Bills vs. Dolphins Odds & Picks: Miami Overvalued?

Bills vs. Dolphins Odds & Picks: Miami Overvalued? article feature image

Steve Mitchell-USA Today Sports. Pictured: Ryan Fitzpatrick.

  • Our experts analyze every betting angle of the Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins, complete with odds and picks.

Bills at Dolphins Odds & Picks

  • Odds: Bills -6.5
  • Over/Under: 40.5
  • Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: CBS

Odds as of Thursday evening and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150). No strings attached. No rollover required.

The Dolphins are the unlikely owners of the AFC East’s longest winning streak (two) and now welcome Buffalo to Hard Rock Stadium for a divisional battle. Will Ryan Fitzpatrick and Co. log their third straight win against Josh Allen and the Bills?

Our experts think that the Dolphins may be getting a little too much love from Vegas this weekend — remember that this was the team that many team thought would go winless.

Bills-Dolphins Injury Report

The Bills added tight end Dawson Knox (knee) to the injury report, but have said he’s expected to play on Sunday. They also added one of their best pass-rushers in Jerry Hughes (groin) to the report, but he still got in a limited practice on Thursday, suggesting he should be OK for Sunday.

It looks like the Dolphins could get safety Reshad Jones (chest) back after he returned to full practice, but they’re still expected to be without cornerback Ken Webster since he still isn’t practicing with his ankle issue. Justin Bailey

Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.

Biggest Mismatch

Bills Pass Defense vs. Dolphins Pass Offense

Fitzpatrick has injected some life into the Dolphins’ listless offensive attack, but they still rank 31st in passing efficiency on the year, per Football Outsiders’ DVOA.

It’s unfortunate that the Dolphins aren’t equipped to take advantage of Buffalo’s 27th-rated run defense, because their pass game will struggle against Sean McDermott’s sound unit against the pass, which is ranked ninth in DVOA and has given up only seven passing touchdowns all season. Chris Raybon

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Bills -7.5
  • Projected Total: 39

The Dolphins are on a two-win streak and their odds of getting the first overall pick in 2020 has taken a bit of a hit as a result. They’re playing over their heads right now and are still very much a bad team on paper — they’re still the lowest ranked team in my power ratings, but have closed the gap considerably to the second-worst team (the Bengals). In fact, there’s a scenario in which the Dolphins could be a favorite.

Miami hosts Cincinnati in Week 16 in a matchup that could have major implications for the 2020 draft. Right now I would have the Dolphins as a 1.5-point home favorites assuming Fitzpatrick starts. If Josh Rosen were to start that matchup, it would move the line to Bengals -1.

While I’m showing about 1.5 points of value on the Bills this week, I’ve tried to avoid betting on Miami games. There ‘s so much volatility in projecting a team like the Dolphins that it makes it tough to bet against them or back them. This is a pass for me. Sean Koerner

Expert Picks

Stuckey: Bills -3 1H/-6 Game Split

Listeners of our podcast know I haven’t been a fan of the Bills lately. I’ve thought they’ve been overvalued in the market in recent weeks after racking up wins against subpar competition. And that sentiment paid off against the Eagles then the Browns.

Well, I’ve done a 180 — I think the Bills actually have value at anything under a touchdown this week.

I’m not sure where this Dolphins love is coming from. This is still one of the worst rosters we’ve seen in the NFL in quite some time. I didn’t drastically change my view of them after wins over the Colts’ third-string QB and the dumpster fire that is the Jets.

If you recall, just a few weeks back, the Bills were 17-point home favorites against Miami. Even if we assume three points for home-field advantage for both teams (I have Miami’s as less), that would imply this line should be about Bills -11. Now, the market has soured on the Bills a little and has seen some effort out of a Dolphins team many thought wouldn’t win a game, so I get adjustments were made. But going under a TD here is too much in my opinion.

Plus, this is actually a great matchup for the Bills, whose pass defense allows only 5.6 yards per pass attempt (third in the NFL) and doesn’t allow anything deep through the air.

Like Chris said earlier, where the Bills are vulnerable is on the ground: They’re allowing 4.5 yards per carry (21st in league). But Miami isn’t capable of exploiting that weakness with a horrendous offensive line and a rushing attack that averages a league-worst 3.1 yards per carry. Just how bad is that mark? In order to find a team that averaged fewer than that, you’d have to go all the way back to the year 2000, when the Chargers averaged a flat 3.0 yards per pop. Terrell Fletcher led the Chargers in rushing that season with 384 yards on the ground for a team that had Ryan Leaf and Jim Harbaugh start games at QB.

Yes, that long ago. And only two teams have finished a season at exactly 3.1 since.

Miami has also lost its two best backs from the start of the season with the trade of Kenyan Drake to the Cardinals and the suspension of Mark Walton.

In the first meeting in Buffalo, the Dolphins did actually put up 21 points and 381 yards in a 10-point loss. But let’s take a look at who did the damage:

  • Leading rusher: Mark Walton
  • Second-leading rusher: Kenyan Drake
  • Leading receiver: Preston Williams

All three will not be available on Sunday.

Buffalo is just so much better in the trenches and significantly more talented on both sides of the ball. That should ultimately be the difference in what sets up as a good matchup for the Bills defense. Allen can do just enough to cover this number, which I like at anything below a touchdown for the full game.

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