Zylbert’s NFL Over/Unders: How to Profit off This Philip Rivers Trend in Chargers-Broncos

Betting odds: Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos

• Over/Under: 43
• Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS

Zylbert’s 2018 NFL Over/Under Betting Record: 9-7-2, +1.2 units
Last Week’s Result: Bears-49ers Under 44 (WIN)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

Just like that, the final week of the regular season has arrived, bringing about arguably the toughest slate for bettors of the entire campaign.

The Week 17 card can be the trickiest to handicap, riddled with obstacles and variables that you otherwise would not encounter at any other point of the season.

Fortunately, we shouldn't have to worry about those obstacles or variables when the Chargers and Broncos tangle in an AFC West clash of actual importance for both sides.

We know what's at stake for Los Angeles. As Philip Rivers makes his 208th consecutive start — which will tie him with Peyton Manning for the third-longest such streak in NFL history — the Chargers will still be vying for the AFC's No. 1 seed, though they'll need the Chiefs to lose in addition to a win over Denver for that honor.

There should definitely be an extra sense of urgency as the Chargers try to recover from their lowest-scoring output of the season, too. In last week's loss to Baltimore, they could muster only a touchdown and a field goal, which was the first time this season that they didn't score at least 20 points in a game.

Does this mean the potent Chargers offense is fading at the wrong time? Not if Rivers' extensive track record in bounce-back scenarios is any indication.

The club's Week 16 defeat was just the 29th time the Chargers scored 14 or fewer points in Rivers' 207 career starts. With one coming last week and another in a previous season finale, he's had 27 chances to engineer a rebound after such low-scoring outings.

In those 27 successive starts, Rivers churned out 272.4 yards per game on 66.1% passing to go with a pretty 60-to-21 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He's registered a passer rating of 102.27 en route to plating 26.1 points on average in those games — a number we'll gladly take for an over 41 wager.

You have to like Rivers' tendency over such a lengthy sample size to instantly pick it up after his offense has an off day.

He'll be in an encouraging position to record a similar follow-up performance against a Broncos defense that ranks 22nd in passing yards allowed (251.3). In fact, one of Rivers' two 400-yard efforts this season came against this very opponent — and the Broncos won't have top corner Chris Harris Jr. this time around.

Only six teams have given up more "explosive plays" than Denver (55), according to SharpFootballStats.com.

Lastly, we should appreciate the Bolts being at full health right now. Star players Melvin Gordon and Keenan Allen recently missed some action, but both looked strong in their respective returns a week ago. Austin Ekeler will provide a boost in rejoining Gordon in the backfield after missing the past two games, too.

Despite being eliminated from the playoff picture, this game will also be of significance to the Broncos: It could be the final game for quarterback Case Keenum and/or head coach Vance Joseph in Denver. Obviously, neither want to leave. Keenum even admitted earlier this week, saying "I want to play here the rest of my career." And by all accounts I've read, Joseph is a likable coach who players will compete for.

Therein lies the motivation us over bettors seek: Though the Broncos lost stud rookie Phillip Lindsay (wrist) to injury, running backs Royce Freeman and Devontae Booker are capable of providing useful work in Lindsay's stead. Meanwhile, I anticipate first-year wideouts Courtland Sutton and DaeSean Hamilton to make a difference in our favor.

Remember, we don't need this offense to do too much. So long as Rivers and Co. do their typical thing in this spot, that means we just need the Broncos to be semi-competitive with maybe a pair of touchdowns, which figures to be all we need. There's potential for more, too, given how the Chargers have yielded more than 20 points in each of their past four ballgames.

If you're following me on the app, you were able to get this over at its lowest number days ago (41), in which I also bought a half-point. It's still a bet worth taking even if you have to settle for 42/43.

Play: OVER 41 (-120)