Cowboys-Eagles SNF Betting Preview: Should Philly Be Such a Big Favorite?

Cowboys-Eagles SNF Betting Preview: Should Philly Be Such a Big Favorite? article feature image
Credit:

USA Today Sports. Pictured: Dak Prescott, Carson Wentz

Betting odds: Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles

  • Spread: Eagles -7
  • Over/Under: 43
  • Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: NBC

>> All odds as of Friday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets


Betting market: The Eagles were available at -6.5 on Tuesday and part of Wednesday before books had enough and moved the line up -7.

More than 80% of bets and dollars are on Philly as of writing (see live data here), but now that Dallas is +7, I expect both numbers to drop a bit. Whether the Cowboys get enough action to move back to +6.5 remains to be seen. Mark Gallant

Weather report: Temperatures will dip into the mid-30s by kickoff, but don’t read too much into that. The wind will be only 4 mph, so the weather shouldn’t impact the game too much. Gallant

Trends to know: The Cowboys are 2-14-1 against the spread on a short weeks — with six or fewer days to prepare — under Jason Garrett, according to our Bet Labs data. They’ve failed to cover 12 straight in this situation, including one push.

Dallas is 0-4 ATS against a division opponent in this spot, failing to cover by an average of 11.1 points. John Ewing

Most of that damage has come in the second half of games. Dallas is 4-13 against the second-half spread on short rest under Garrett, failing to cover by 7.1 points per game.

On the other side, Doug Pederson’s Eagles are 6-1 straight-up and ATS (+4.8 units) when facing teams coming off a short week, covering by 8.7 points per game.

He’s been the most profitable NFL coach when facing an opponent on short rest since becoming head coach of the Eagles in 2016.Evan Abrams

Biggest mismatch: Eagles’ pass rush vs. Cowboys’ offensive line

Dak Prescott could be in trouble considering the Cowboys’ offensive line ranks 31st in Football Outsiders’ adjusted sack rate.

Prescott will draw an Eagles defense that leads the league in quarterback hits and knockdowns, and ranks fifth in hurries, per Sports Info Solutions.Justin Bailey

Dak-Prescott-Fletcher-Cox
Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Dak Prescott, Fletcher Cox

Which team is healthier? Eagles

The Eagles won’t get Darren Sproles back after he re-aggravated his hamstring injury during Wednesday’s practice. Corey Clement (illness) along with cornerbacks Sidney Jones (hamstring) and Jalen Mills (foot) also aren’t guaranteed to suit up.

Meanwhile, the Cowboys aren’t expected to have difference-making linebacker Sean Lee (hamstring) for 4-6 weeks, while defensive linemen Randy Gregory (knee) and David Irving (ankle) could miss another game.

The offense isn’t expected to have left guard Connor Williams (knee) or wide receiver Tavon Austin (groin), although tight end Geoff Swaim (knee) appears close to a return.

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz

DFS edge: It remains to be seen how much Golden Tate could eat into Zach Ertz’s target share, but it’s hard to ignore Ertz’s 10.5 targets per game so far.

The Cowboys are also allowing 7.2 targets per game to opposing tight ends, and Ertz projects the best among all skill positions on both sides of this matchup, other than Elliott.

Ertz is $6,300 on DraftKings with a solid +2.37 Projected Plus/Minus. Bailey

Bet to watch: Under 43

Philly ranks 21st in points per game (22.3) with Dallas (19.3) even worse off at 26th. According to Football Outsiders’ DVOA, these two teams struggle to move the ball through the air, with the Eagles’ passing efficiency ranking only 20th in the NFL and the Cowboys at 28th.

But what really makes the under interesting is how slowly both offenses run plays. Per Football Outsiders’ pace stats, Philly ranks 26th in seconds per play while Dallas is even slower, ranking 28th.

I expect a slow game with few explosive offensive plays, which bodes well for the under. PJ Walsh

I’m also on the under. This game checks nearly every box when it comes to forecasting a low-scoring matchup.

  • Big plays: Both defenses rank in the top-half of the league in preventing pass plays of 20-plus yards, while both offenses find themselves in the bottom-half  in terms of creating big plays through the air.
  • Pressure: Dak Prescott has the week’s worst matchup in combined pressure rate between a team’s offensive line and the opposition’s defensive line, while Carson Wentz comes in with the fifth-worst rate.
  • Pace: The matchup is the week’s third-slowest game in combined situation neutral pace.
  • Rushing ability: Both backfields have  bottom-four matchups in combined adjusted line yards per rush.
  • Turnovers:The Cowboys-Eagles matchup is tied with Saints-Bengals for the week’s lowest combined turnover rate.
  • Passing efficiency: Only Bills-Jets and Jaguars-Colts have a lower combined net yards per pass attempt sum. Ian Hartitz


Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.

How would you rate this article?