Packers-Rams Betting Preview: Will Aaron Rodgers Cover as Massive Underdog?

Oct 28, 2018 12:45 PM EDT

USA Today Sports. Pictured: Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Donald

Betting odds: Green Bay Packers at Los Angeles Rams

  • Spread: Rams -9.5
  • Over/Under: 56.5
  • Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: FOX

>> All odds as of Friday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets

Betting market: Aaron Rodgers has never been this big of an underdog, and most bettors think oddsmakers have given him too many points. Sixty-eight percent of bets accounting for 91% of dollars have landed on the Packers, as of writing (see live data here), causing this line to fall slightly from +10 to +9.5.

And while bettors are also taking a liking to the over, oddsmakers are holding their ground. Most books are maintaining their opening number despite 73% of bettors expecting a shootout. Danny Donahue

Trends to know: Teams that opened as double-digit favorites against an opponent with a winning record have gone 12-14-2 against the spread since 2003. Rodgers is also 5-18 straight up and 10-13 ATS as a road underdog in the regular season. John Ewing

Rodgers is up against one of the fiercest opponents of his career in the 2018 Rams and their offensive firepower.

He’s faced an undefeated opponent five times in October or later, and is 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS, with his only SU win coming against the Texans in 2012. On top of that, the Rams are averaging 33.6 points per game this season — the highest average for a team Rodgers has faced in October or later.

The Rams are also defeating their opponents by 15.3 points per game. Rodgers has faced an opponent with an average point differential of +14 or more only twice, going 2-0 SU and ATS. Both games were in 2012. Evan Abrams

model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game
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