Packers-Redskins Betting Preview: Will Rodgers Hold Up as a Road Favorite?

Sep 21, 2018 4:00 AM EDT

Betting odds: Green Bay Packers at Washington Redskins

  • Spread: Packers -3
  • Over/Under: 45.5
  • Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: FOX

>> All odds as of Friday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets


Betting market: This game features some of the bigger bet vs. dollar discrepancies on Sunday’s board.

The Redskins have drawn only 33% of bets, but those account for 63% of dollars wagered at the time of writing (find updated data here). That sharp vs. square action has kept this line at +3.

The under has similarly drawn 38% of bets accounting for 67% of dollars, which has brought this total down from 47.5 to 45.5. — Danny Donahue

Injury watch: Aaron Rodgers (knee) likely won’t practice on Wednesdays and Thursdays for the foreseeable future, but he’s fully expected to suit up Sunday in Landover, Md.

The defense isn’t so lucky, as defensive backs Kevin King (groin), Davon House (biceps) and Josh Jones (ankle) are questionable. The good news is middle linebacker Oren Burks (shoulder) has practiced in full all week and should be good to go for Sunday.

The Redskins defense is tentatively expected to have cornerback Josh Norman (illness) and linebacker Zach Brown (oblique), who were each limited in practice on Thursday.

The offense might be without left guard Shawn Lauvao (calf), but right guard Brandon Scherff (knee), left tackle Trent Williams and No. 1 receiver Paul Richardson (shoulder, knee) are expected to suit up Sunday barring any setbacks.

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Dashboard for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz

Trends to know: Washington scored nine points in a loss to Indy on Sunday, and right around 70% of spread tickets are fading the Redskins as short home dogs against Rodgers and the Packers.

This is a good buy-low opportunity for the ‘Skins. Since 2003, teams that scored fewer than 10 points in their previous game and are receiving fewer than 30% of bets have gone 145-91-4 (61%) ATS, according to our Bet Labs data. — John Ewing

In his career as a starter, Alex Smith has excelled against the spread when facing opposing teams with good offenses, such as Rodgers and the Packers, and not so much against teams with weaker offenses.

When facing teams that average at least 21 points per game, Smith is 47-33-4 ATS (+11.6 units), making him the third-most profitable quarterback in the NFL in that spot since 2004, behind Tom Brady and Drew Brees.

When Smith plays an opponent averaging fewer than 21 PPG, his teams are just 31-33-1 ATS (-3.5 units). — Evan Abrams

Last week perfectly illustrated why Andy Reid discarded Smith in favor of Laser Show Patrick Mahomes.

While Smith guided the Redskins to a hapless nine points in a 21-9 loss as a home favorite to the Colts, Mahomes lit up the Steelers for six touchdown passes in a 42-37 win as a road underdog.

Without Reid, Smith is just 5-6-1 (45.5%) ATS in his career as a home underdog.Chris Raybon

DFS edge: Since Rodgers injured his knee in the first half of Week 1. he’s thrown for four touchdowns and 554 yards, proving the two-time first-team All-Pro is capable of pretty much anything.

Still, Rodgers has historically been a bit less fantastic on the road in recent years. Per the FantasyLabs Trends tool, he’s averaged 3.1 fewer DraftKings PPG with a -0.6 Plus/Minus and 46% Consistency Rating away from Lambeau Field since 2014.

The Redskins have allowed a league-best 6.9 DraftKings points below salary-based expectation to quarterbacks over the past 12 months. — Ian Hartitz

Bet to watch: Redskins +3

Rodgers isn’t 100% and the Packers are going on the road for the first time this season. The Packers are 2-5 ATS in their past seven games as a road favorite.

Smith and the Redskins played extremely well in Week 1, and I expect them to bounce back in Week 3.

I think the line should be Redskins +2.5 and will absolutely take them at a key number of +3.Peter Jennings

 


Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.

Credit:

Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Aaron Rodgers.

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SCHEDULE
OPEN
CURR
# BETS
HOU
WAS
43
+3
42
+3
CIN
BAL
43.5
-4.5
44
-5.5
PIT
JAC
47.5
+6
46.5
+5
CAR
DET
50.5
+3
49.5
+4.5
DAL
ATL
47.5
-4.5
50
-3
TEN
IND
48
-3
51
-1
TB
NYG
52
PK
53
-3
OAK
ARI
41
-4
41
-5.5
DEN
LAC
47
-7.5
46.5
-7
PHI
NO
54.5
-9
56
-7.5
MIN
CHI
45.5
-2.5
44
-2.5
KC
LA
63.5
-1
63
-3.5