Texans-Redskins Betting Preview: Expect a Low-Scoring Game in D.C.?

Betting odds: Houston Texans at Washington Redskins

• Spread: Texans -3
• Over/Under: 42.5
• Time: 1 p.m. ET
• TV channel: CBS

Betting market: Just 32% of bettors are on the Redskins, who have gone from -2 to -3 since opening. This line has moved back and forth a few times between 2.5 and 3, with sharp action coming in on both Houston -2.5 and Washington +3.

With more than 80% of dollars on the under, this total has dropped from 43 to 42/42.5 around the market (see live data here). — Mark Gallant

Trends to know: Houston is coming off a bye week, which should give it extra time to get healthy, practice and prepare. According to our Bet Labs data, teams coming off a bye week are 238-206-14 (54%) against the spread since 2003.

Road favorites after a bye have been even more profitable: 58-26-2 (69%) ATS. — John Ewing

The Washington Redskins are simply playing a different game than every other team. They are averaging 19.6 PPG (27th) and allowing 19.4 PPG (T-fourth) this season.

Since 2003, teams scoring fewer than 20 PPG and allowing fewer than 20 PPG are 240-181-4 (57%) to the over when playing at home, profiting bettors 46.5 units.

When that home team has seen at least 60% of its games go under the total entering a game in this spot, the over is 144-93-3 (60.8%), covering by an average of three points in a 250-game sample size. — Evan Abrams

The Texans are streaking, having won at least three consecutive games straight up and ATS entering Week 11.

Since 2003, non-playoff teams from the previous season on a win streak of at least a three or more games SU and ATS in November or later are 104-78-7 ATS (57.1%), profiting bettors 21.6 units.

Since 2015, teams are 29-17-2 ATS (63%) in this spot, covering the spread by 3.8 PPG. — Abrams

Through the Texans' first six games this season, they had 11 turnovers, which was tied for the sixth-most in the NFL. Over their past three games, they've turned the ball over once.

Prior to this streak of no turnovers, the Texans hadn’t gone consecutive games without turnovers under Bill O’Brien (since 2014). — Abrams

Did you know? The Redskins haven’t had a single lead change in any of their nine games this season. They are the first team since the merger (1970) that can claim that through nine games. — Stuckey

Biggest mismatch: Redskins offensive line vs. J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney

The Redskins have shuffled around their offensive line all season and guard Shawn Lauvao (knee) and right guard Brandon Scherff (pectoral) were recently placed on injured reserve.

Furthermore, right tackle Morgan Moses (knee) and Williams’ backup, Tyler Nsekhe (ankle) are also on the injury report. Their banged-up line will be tasked with slowing down Watt and Clowney, who’ve combined for 52 quarterback hurries, 29 hits, 59 pressures and 14.5 sacks this year. — Justin Bailey

Which team is healthier? Texans

Key Texans in danger of missing Sunday’s game include outside linebacker Whitney Mercilus (ankle), slot receiver Keke Coutee (hamstring), along with cornerbacks Johnathan Joseph (ankle) and Aaron Colvin (ankle).

The Redskins continue to battle injuries at seemingly every position. Left tackle Trent Williams (thumb) has been ruled out, while Chris Thompson (ribs) and slot receiver Jamison Crowder (ankle) aren’t expected to play either.

Kicker Dustin Hopkins (groin), defensive tackle Daron Payne (shoulder) and cornerback Quinton Dunbar (leg) are worth monitoring.

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz

DFS edge: Hopkins should be treated as one of the league’s most matchup-proof receivers. With that said, Nuk has a few unsettling trends working against him leading into a potentially difficult shadow date with Josh Norman.

The Texans have shifted toward a slow-paced, run-first offense since Watson suffered rib and lung injuries during their Week 5 win against the Cowboys. Watson has failed to exceed 25 pass attempts in four consecutive weeks after reaching that threshold in 10 of his first 12 career starts.

This enhanced emphasis on the ground game has unsurprisingly influenced Hopkins’ target volume, as he’s averaged 8.3 targets per game in Weeks 6-9 after seeing 11.4 targets per game in Weeks 1-5.

The bye week gave Watson some extra time to rest, but Will Fuller's absence remains a concern. Watson averages 9.04 yards per attempt with Fuller compared to 6.56 without him since Week 1 of last season.

Hopkins has accordingly averaged 4.9 fewer PPR points per game without Fuller since 2017 despite seeing an additional target per game.

These concerns might not be as prevalent in this week’s matchup against a Redskins defense that has allowed an absurd 91.4 yards per game to opposing No. 1 wide receivers this season.

Hopkins costs $7,900 on DraftKings and boasts a strong +3.7 Projected Plus/Minus. — Hartitz

Bet to watch: Under 42

Pure and simple: I think this game will be dominated by both defensive fronts. The Texans' offensive line has been an issue all season long, as Watson has been pressured on 41.3% or his dropbacks — the highest rate in the NFL.

The Redskins should have similar issues up front, as their offensive line is absolutely depleted. Watt, Clowney and Whitney Mercilus should live in the backfield all day.

We can rely on Alex Smith to avoid mindless turnovers under pressure — he ranks fifth all-time in career interception rate. Watson has also been better in this department this season, with a 2.5% interception rate, and as we mentioned above, the Texans haven’t turned the ball over in three games.

In a battle of two teams that sit in the top 10 in rush attempts per game, expect the clock to move swiftly throughout. I’m not sure how either gets to 20 without flukes. — Stuckey

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.