Jaguars-Bills Betting Preview: Behold the Lowest Over/Under of the Season

Jaguars-Bills Betting Preview: Behold the Lowest Over/Under of the Season article feature image
Credit:

Kevin Jairaj, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Josh Allen

Betting odds: Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills

  • Spread: Jaguars -3
  • Over/Under: 37
  • Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: CBS

>> All odds as of Saturday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets


Betting market: Buffalo has received multiple waves of sharp action at +4 and +3 vs. the Jaguars. Who would’ve thunk it?

Though Jacksonville is receiving more than 60% of bets at the time of writing, they’ve fallen from -4 to -3 since opening.

Buffalo is receiving more than half of spread dollars thus far (see live betting data here). — Mark Gallant

Did you know? The Jags-Bills over/under of 37 is the lowest in the 2018 season. In the past three seasons, there have been 58 regular season games that closed with an over/under of fewer than 40 points. The over went 29-29 in those games. — John Ewing

Trends to know: Since 2003, games with a total below 40 in November or later are 263-226-5 (53.8%) to the over, but when one of the teams in the game is averaging fewer than 14 points per game, the under is actually 49-41-1 (54.4%), flipping the script on the trend over a large sample size. — Evan Abrams

The Jaguars have lost six in a row,  which is currently the longest active losing streak in the NFL. Since 2010, only three teams have lost six consecutive games after making the playoffs the previous season and were listed as the favorite:

  • 2015 Cowboys (-1) at Buccaneers: Lost, 10-6
  • 2013 Texans (-10.5) vs. Raiders: Lost, 28-23
  • 2010 Bengals (-4) vs. Bills: Lost, 49-31 — Evan Abrams

Biggest mismatch: Jags secondary vs. Bills pass game

The Jaguars haven’t quite been the same world-beaters on defense as they were in 2017, but the likes of Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye have still made life tough on opposing skill-position players.

Overall, the Jaguars have allowed bottom-five rates in DraftKings points allowed to both wide receivers and running backs this season.

The Bills’ inept passing “attack” is expected to welcome back Josh Allen (elbow), although their combined net yards per attempt rate with the Jaguars’ defense is easily the week’s worst mark in what figures to be a low-scoring affair. — Ian Hartitz

Which team is healthier? Bills

Neither team is particularly close to 100%, but the Bills are expected to welcome back Allen (elbow) under center for their matchup against the Jaguars.

It remains to be seen if Allen will be joined by tight end Charles Clay (hamstring), defensive ends Trent Murphy (knee) and Shaq Lawson (elbow), along with center Russell Bodine (shoulder).

The Jaguars are somehow worse off, as none of Jalen Ramsey (groin), right tackle Jermey Parnell (knee), defensive tackle Marcell Dareus (back), field-stretcher D.J. Chark (quad), left tackle Josh Walker (foot, ankle) nor right guard A.J. Cann (hamstring) managed to get in a full practice on Wednesday.

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz

DFS edge: Bills cornerback Tre’Davious White and Richard Sherman are the only corners averaging more than 20 coverage snaps played per reception allowed. Still, the Bills have been selective about deploying their No. 1 corner in shadow coverage, letting White stay on the left side of the field against offenses without a clear No. 1 receiver.

This describes the Jaguars, who have fed T.J. Yeldon (25), Dede Westbrook (24), Donte Moncrief (23), D.J. Chark (19) and Keelan Cole (10) double-digit targets over their past four games.

The Bills, Ravens and Bears are the league’s only defenses allowing fewer than five yards per play, so this could actually be a good spot to target the Bills defense at just $2,700 on DraftKings.– Ian Hartitz

Bet to watch: Buffalo +3

At this point, the Jaguars aren’t much different from the Bills. The Jags rank sixth in defensive DVOA; the Bills rank second.

Six of each team’s seven losses have come against opponents currently .500 or better. But the Jags still have Blake Bortles, while the Bills will get back Josh Allen, who has more wins than Bortles over the past seven weeks despite the fact he hasn’t played a snap since Week 6.

Allen has also gotten better at limiting negative plays, taking three sacks and committing just one turnover over his past two starts. This is anyone’s game, so give me the team getting +3 at home. — Chris Raybon


Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.

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