Jaguars vs. Colts Odds & Picks: Does Nick Foles Give Jacksonville A Boost?

Jaguars vs. Colts Odds & Picks: Does Nick Foles Give Jacksonville A Boost? article feature image

Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Nick Foles.

  • Our experts analyze every betting angle of the Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts, complete with odds and picks.

Jaguars at Colts Odds & Picks

  • Odds: Colts -3
  • Over/Under: 43.5
  • Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: CBS

Odds as of Thursday evening and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150). No strings attached. No rollover required.

Both of these teams will welcome back their Week 1 starting quarterbacks on Sunday, albeit after very different lengths of time.

Nick Foles will be under center for the Jaguars for the first time since the season-opener while Jacoby Brissett is set to return from a knee injury that sidelined him in Week 9. But which team gets the biggest boost as a result?

Our experts analyze every angle of this matchup, featuring Sean Koerner’s projected odds and a staff pick.

Jaguars-Colts Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Jaguars

The bye week did the Jaguars some good as every player on their injury report has at least been limited in practice, suggesting they’re in good shape. Most notable is Dede Westbrook (neck/shoulder), who is back to practicing in full.

It seems likely the Colts will be without T.Y. Hilton (calf) again since he hasn’t resumed practicing. As a result, they’ll roll with Zach Pascal, Chester Rogers and Marcus Johnson in 3-WR sets. Jack Doyle missed practice on Wednesday with a shoulder injury, but was able to return to limited practice on Thursday.

On a better note, Brissett (knee) has been practicing in full, and he’s expected to return this week. Justin Bailey

Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.

Biggest Mismatch

Colts Run Offense vs. Jaguars Run Defense

What a difference a year makes.

In 2018, running back Marlon Mack struggled in his two divisional matchups against the Jags. In Week 10, he had 29 yards rushing on 12 carries. In Week 13, 27 yards on eight carries. No touchdowns in either game. Horrible.

But the Jags were also No. 2 in rush success rate allowed (per Sharp Football Stats). On only 41% of their carries were opposing offenses able to get adequate yardage given the down and distance.

This year, though, they rank No. 28 as they’ve allowed a 52% rush success rate. Just last week they allowed the plodding Carlos Hyde to rush for 160 yards on 19 carries. When teams want to run on them, they’ve been able to do so this season.

colts-vs-steelers-odds-picks-predictions-week 9-2019
Thomas J. Russo-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Marlon Mack, Jacoby Brissett

As it happens, the Colts are a running team: They’re No. 5 with a 46.2% run play rate. And they run well, ranking No. 8 with a 51% rush success rate. On top of that, the Jags have a funnel defense that ranks No. 10 against the pass but No. 24 against the run (per Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric). The Colts will likely be incentivized to run.

With Brissett back in the starting lineup, the Colts offense should be better than it has been in his absence over the past two weeks, and with that improvement, the Colts will likely have longer drives and and rely more on the running game.

And I expect Brissett’s presence will actually make the running game more efficient, as the Jags won’t be able to stack the box as readily. In Brissett’s full games in Weeks 1-8, the Colts were No. 5 in rush success rate (53%).

Mack and the Colts could grind their way to 150 yards against the Jags. Matthew Freedman

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread with Brissett Starting: Colts -2.5
  • Projected Total with Brissett Starting: 43

Foles is set to make his return after a Week 1 collarbone injury that sent him to the IR.

The market docked the Jaguars roughly 6.5 points for the drop-off from Foles to Gardner Minshew, but Minshew ended up being much better than anyone could have anticipated, going 4-4 as the starter. He was so impressive that many wondered whether the Jags should stick with him even when Foles was healthy enough to play again.

I’m boosting the Jaguars’ rating by only a half-point with Foles’ return. If he struggles in the coming weeks, we may see Minshew get re-inserted. Sean Koerner

Expert Picks

Mike Randle: Colts -3

The Colts were a different team without Brissett. Since he left in the second quarter of Week 9, they’ve lost to Pittsburgh and were upset at home by a Dolphins team that entered the game 1-7.

However, Brissett is scheduled to return, which will force the Jacksonville defense to avoid loading up against the run. The Jaguars ranks 24th in run defense DVOA, providing Mack with his best matchup since their 19-13 win at Kansas City in Week 5.

The Jaguars will also need to limit their turnovers, ranking fifth-worst with eight lost fumbles this season. They’re hoping for a boost from Foles, especially after Minshew was responsible for four turnovers in their 26-3 loss to Houston in London, a team Jacksonville normally plays very well.

Indy has lost two straight, but with Brissett likely to return in a critical home matchup, I like the Colts -3 and would bet this line up to -4.

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