Dolphins-Patriots Betting Preview: Will Tom Brady Really Lose 3 Straight?

Dolphins-Patriots Betting Preview: Will Tom Brady Really Lose 3 Straight? article feature image

USA Today Sports. Pictured: Danny Amendola, Tom Brady

Betting odds: Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots

  • Spread: Patriots -6.5
  • Over/Under: 48
  • Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: CBS

>> All odds as of Friday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets

Betting market: For the first few days of the week, spread bets were split just about 50/50. The Patriots had moved from -7 to -6.5 late Sunday night and have since remained there, but bettors have grown tired of New England.

At the time of writing, the Pats were down to just 43% of spread bets (see live data here), which is the lowest support they’ve received since Jacoby Brissett led them to a 27-0 win over the Texans in September 2016.

It’s also the lowest Tom Brady has received since November 2013, when Peyton Manning and the Broncos visited New England as a 1-point dog. — Mark Gallant

Trends to know: The Patriots have now dropped two straight for the first time since the end of the 2015 season. Brady has only lost three consecutive starts straight up once: In 2002, when the Pats lost four in a row and finished 9-7 (that season was also the last time New England failed to hit the 10-win mark).

According to our Bet Labs data, Brady is 7-2 SU and 6-3 against the spread coming off of consecutive SU losses.  — Evan Abrams

Miami has a better record than New England, but that hasn’t helped teams in the past. Since 2003, teams facing Brady with a better record than the Patriots are 6-17-2 ATS in the regular season. — John Ewing

Since 2003, the Patriots are 22-7-2 ATS when receiving less than half of the spread bets.Mark Gallant

Injury watch: The Dolphins expect to have defensive end Cameron Wake (knee) and safety Reshad Jones (shoulder), but linebacker Chase Allen (foot) and defensive end Andre Branch (knee) are unlikely to suit up.

Meanwhile, the potential absence of starting tight end A.J. Derby (foot) could lead to increased snaps for electric rookie tight end Mike Gesicki.

The Patriots’ laundry list of limited practice participants includes key players on both sides of the ball.

Rob Gronkowski (ankle) and right tackle Marcus Cannon (calf) are expected to suit up on Sunday after playing through their questionable tags last week

The following Patriots should be considered questionable: Cornerback Eric Rowe (groin), defensive end Trey Flowers (concussion), defensive end Geneo Grissom (ankle), safety Patrick Chung (concussion), defensive tackle Danny Shelton (elbow), wide receiver Josh Gordon (hamstring), and tight end Jacob Hollister (chest).

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Dashboard for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz

DFS edge: No. 1 Dolphins cornerback Xavien Howard has made a name for himself during his brief shadow appearances.

Brandin Cooks (1-38-0), Julio Jones (6-72-0) and Amari Cooper (2-17-0) have all failed to get anything going with Howard at their hip since the beginning of last season.

Still, Howard has only spent 3.7% of his snaps in the slot this season, so he’ll likely see more of Gordon (hamstring) and Phillip Dorsett than Chris Hogan (53% slot rate).

Hogan carries the third-highest projected ceiling among all wide receivers priced under $6,000 on DraftKings in the FantasyLabs’ Pro Models. — Hartitz

Bet to watch: Patriots -6.5

The Patriots are 5-0 in their last five games coming off a two-game losing streak. New England desperately needs a wide receiver to stretch the field, and it appears Gordon will be active for this game.

I know it is inevitable that Brady and the Pats’ hold on the AFC East won’t last forever and will fall off at some point. However, until that happens, I am going to continue backing the Pats. — Peter Jennings


Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.

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