Giants-Texans Betting Preview: Will These Offenses Show Up in Week 3?

Sep 21, 2018 4:00 AM EDT

Betting odds: New York Giants at Houston Texans

  • Spread: Texans -6
  • Over/Under: 42.5
  • Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: FOX

>> All odds as of Friday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets


Betting market: This has been one of the most stagnant lines of the week. Other than a couple brief appearances at -5.5 and -6.5, the Texans have held steady as six-point favorites.

That lack of activity comes despite Houston receiving 60% of bets and 68% of dollars at the time of writing (see the updated lines here).

The total also hasn’t moved much despite the 40% of bets on the under accounting for 53% of dollars. — Danny Donahue

Injury watch: The Giants don’t seem any closer to getting defensive end Olivier Vernon (ankle) back, while fellow defensive end Connor Barwin (knee) and cornerback Eli Apple (groin) have missed practice time, as well.

The loss of starting center Jon Halapio (ankle) and the status of tight end Evan Engram (ankle), who practiced in a limited fashion on Wednesday and Thursday, is a big concern.

Neither DeAndre Hopkins (ankle, thumb, hamstring) nor Will Fuller (hamstring) suffered setbacks in Week 2, but they’ve been limited in practice all week.

Regardless, they’re expected to play Sunday, along with defensive end Christian Covington (thigh, knee) and tight end Ryan Griffin (hip). Jadeveon Clowney (back, elbow) expects to play after failing to suit up last week.

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Dashboard for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz

Trends to know: After both teams played in low-scoring games, the majority of dollars are on the under for their Week 3 meeting.

That could be a mistake, as it has been profitable to bet the over when both teams go under in their previous game early in the season.

Since 2003, in the first four games of the season, the over is 95-58-1 (62%) in this spot, according to our Bet Labs data. — John Ewing

Eli Manning and the Giants are coming off a hard-fought loss on the road at AT&T Stadium against the Cowboys.

In Manning’s career, the Giants have struggled the week after their yearly trip to Dallas: 4-9 ATS (-5 units).

Since 2011, the Giants are 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS in this spot, failing to cover the spread by 11 PPG. — Abrams

Metrics that matter: If Giants put defensive back B.W. Webb on Fuller this week, expect Watson to target that side of the field. Webb has allowed 10 touchdowns in coverage, despite being thrown at only 114 times in total in his career, according to Pro Football Focus. — Abrams

DFS edge: Odell Beckham Jr. is mired in the fourth-longest touchdown drought of his career … two games.

His 30% target share after two weeks indicates things could change, and he’s set up well against a Texans defense that couldn’t keep Blaine Gabbert’s Titans under 20 points last week.

Overall, the Texans boast some of PFF’s bottom-40 corners this season out of 103 qualified defensive backs.

In the FantasyLabs Models, Beckham’s projected 13% to 16% ownership rate on DraftKings is a tier below more expensive options Hopkins, Tyreek Hill and Michael Thomas. — Ian Hartitz

Deshaun Watson in five starts with Will Fuller: 296.2 yards | 3.6 touchdowns per game | 9.52 yards per attempt.

Watson in three starts without Fuller: 200.7 yards | 1.0 touchdowns | 6.62 yards per attempt.

Small sample size, but still relevant: Watson is a different beast with his field-stretcher in the lineup. — Chris Raybon

Bet to watch: Over 42

Neither team has scored 21 points in a game this year, so we’re getting a little value with this number.

Manning is also taking shots downfield with 13 attempts of 20-plus yards (third-most), which will only help create opportunities for Beckham Jr. over the top and Saquon Barkley in the running game.

As explosive as Watson has been in his career, his propensity for turnovers is really alarming.

In 323 career dropbacks, Watson has 10 interceptions and six fumbles (two lost). Inside his own 40-yard line, he’s had four interceptions, one fumble and 10 sacks.

This should lead to offensive opportunities that the Giants missed against Jacksonville and Dallas, especially if they can get pressure.

Watson has been pressured on 47.6% of dropbacks, highest percentage in NFL.

Be sure to shop around for the best line, as 42 is a key number in over/under betting. — Abrams

 


Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.

Credit:

USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Odell Beckham Jr., DeAndre Hopkins

Follow Action Network Staff on Twitter
@ActionNetworkHQ

Top Stories

THE ACTION NETWORK

Sign up for The Action Network free daily newsletter

The best sports betting trends, insights and news - condensed into a two-minute read.
Sign up today, thank us tomorrow.
Follow Us: @ActionNetworkHQ
Download the App
SCHEDULE
OPEN
CURR
# BETS
GB
SEA
49.5
-2.5
48.5
-3
HOU
WAS
43
+3
42.5
+3
CIN
BAL
--
--
--
--
PIT
JAC
47.5
+6
47
+6
CAR
DET
50.5
+3
51
+4
DAL
ATL
47.5
-4.5
48.5
-3
TEN
IND
48
-3
48.5
-2
TB
NYG
52
PK
52
-1
OAK
ARI
41
-4
40.5
-5.5
DEN
LAC
47
-7.5
46.5
-7
PHI
NO
54.5
-9
56
-9
MIN
CHI
45.5
-2.5
45
-2.5
KC
LA
63.5
-1
63.5
-3.5