Giants-Texans Betting Preview: Will These Offenses Show Up in Week 3?
USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Odell Beckham Jr., DeAndre Hopkins
Betting odds: New York Giants at Houston Texans
- Spread: Texans -6
- Over/Under: 42.5
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- TV channel: FOX
>> All odds as of Friday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets
Betting market: This has been one of the most stagnant lines of the week. Other than a couple brief appearances at -5.5 and -6.5, the Texans have held steady as six-point favorites.
That lack of activity comes despite Houston receiving 60% of bets and 68% of dollars at the time of writing (see the updated lines here).
The total also hasn’t moved much despite the 40% of bets on the under accounting for 53% of dollars. — Danny Donahue
Injury watch: The Giants don’t seem any closer to getting defensive end Olivier Vernon (ankle) back, while fellow defensive end Connor Barwin (knee) and cornerback Eli Apple (groin) have missed practice time, as well.
The loss of starting center Jon Halapio (ankle) and the status of tight end Evan Engram (ankle), who practiced in a limited fashion on Wednesday and Thursday, is a big concern.
Neither DeAndre Hopkins (ankle, thumb, hamstring) nor Will Fuller (hamstring) suffered setbacks in Week 2, but they’ve been limited in practice all week.
Regardless, they’re expected to play Sunday, along with defensive end Christian Covington (thigh, knee) and tight end Ryan Griffin (hip). Jadeveon Clowney (back, elbow) expects to play after failing to suit up last week.
Trends to know: After both teams played in low-scoring games, the majority of dollars are on the under for their Week 3 meeting.
That could be a mistake, as it has been profitable to bet the over when both teams go under in their previous game early in the season.
Eli Manning and the Giants are coming off a hard-fought loss on the road at AT&T Stadium against the Cowboys.
In Manning’s career, the Giants have struggled the week after their yearly trip to Dallas: 4-9 ATS (-5 units).
Since 2011, the Giants are 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS in this spot, failing to cover the spread by 11 PPG. — Abrams
Metrics that matter: If Giants put defensive back B.W. Webb on Fuller this week, expect Watson to target that side of the field. Webb has allowed 10 touchdowns in coverage, despite being thrown at only 114 times in total in his career, according to Pro Football Focus. — Abrams
James Bettcher used Patrick Peterson to shadow top receivers in Arizona. Expecting the same here with Janoris Jenkins and the Giants. Jenkins will likely follow Texans star WR DeAndre Hopkins. That would leave BW Webb on Will Fuller on the other side with Eli Apple (groin)…
— Jordan Raanan (@JordanRaanan) September 20, 2018
DFS edge: Odell Beckham Jr. is mired in the fourth-longest touchdown drought of his career … two games.
His 30% target share after two weeks indicates things could change, and he’s set up well against a Texans defense that couldn’t keep Blaine Gabbert’s Titans under 20 points last week.
Overall, the Texans boast some of PFF’s bottom-40 corners this season out of 103 qualified defensive backs.
Deshaun Watson in five starts with Will Fuller: 296.2 yards | 3.6 touchdowns per game | 9.52 yards per attempt.
Watson in three starts without Fuller: 200.7 yards | 1.0 touchdowns | 6.62 yards per attempt.
Small sample size, but still relevant: Watson is a different beast with his field-stretcher in the lineup. — Chris Raybon
Bet to watch: Over 42
Neither team has scored 21 points in a game this year, so we’re getting a little value with this number.
Manning is also taking shots downfield with 13 attempts of 20-plus yards (third-most), which will only help create opportunities for Beckham Jr. over the top and Saquon Barkley in the running game.
As explosive as Watson has been in his career, his propensity for turnovers is really alarming.
In 323 career dropbacks, Watson has 10 interceptions and six fumbles (two lost). Inside his own 40-yard line, he’s had four interceptions, one fumble and 10 sacks.
This should lead to offensive opportunities that the Giants missed against Jacksonville and Dallas, especially if they can get pressure.
Watson has been pressured on 47.6% of dropbacks, highest percentage in NFL.
Be sure to shop around for the best line, as 42 is a key number in over/under betting. — Abrams
Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.