Jets-Jaguars Betting Preview: Spread Moving Away from Jacksonville

Betting odds: New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars

• Spread: Jaguars -7.5
• Over/Under: 38.5
• Time: 1 p.m. ET
• TV channel: FOX

Betting market: The public is backing the enigma that is the Jaguars, who beat up on Tom Brady and the Patriots in Week 2 before losing to Blaine Gabbert and the Titans last week.

Jacksonville is getting 65% of bets, but only 47% of the money as of writing (see live data here).

The sharper support on the Jets has pushed them from +8.5/9 to +7/7.5 across the market.— Mark Gallant

Trends to know: The Jags and Jets each went under their over/under in Week 3.

Since 2003, it has been profitable to bet the over early in the season if both teams went under their total in the previous game.— John Ewing

The Jaguars and Jets are both allowing fewer than 21 points per game entering Week 4.

Since 2004, when two teams that allow fewer than 21 points per game match up with an over/under below 40 in Week 3 or later, the over is 138-94-3 (+37.8 units) — Evan Abrams

Ket matchup: Jaguars defense vs. Jets offense in the red zone

The Jaguars have allowed a league-low .167 touchdowns per red-zone trip to opponents. The elite defense will be facing a young Jets offense that ranks dead last in both points (2.17) and touchdowns scored per red-zone trip (.167).

Sam Darnold has promise, but he still has a long way to go (just look at his performance the past two weeks). And the red zone highlights those issues like no other.

Even if the Jets offense can maneuver the ball inside the 20, I don’t see how they will punch it into the end zone. — Stuckey

Injury watch:Leonard Fournette (hamstring) seems poised to return this Sunday after practicing the entire week.

The only other Jaguars believed to be dealing with non-routine injuries are kicker Josh Lambo (hip), right guard A.J. Cann (triceps), slot corner D.J. Hayden (toe) and defensive end Calais Campbell (ankle).

Jets linebacker Josh Martin has cleared the concussion protocol and is expected to suit up, but there's not much good news elsewhere on defense. Safety Marcus Maye (foot), safety Doug Middleton (knee/finger) and cornerback Buster Skrine (knee) should all be considered questionable.

Meanwhile, the offense will likely be without tight end Neal Sterling (concussion) again. Terrelle Pryor (ankle/groin) was a mid-week addition to the report and also isn’t guaranteed to play.

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Dashboard for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz

DFS edge: Jets No. 1 receiver Quincy Enunwa has spent 64.8% of his snaps in the slot this season, where neither Jalen Ramsey (9%) nor A.J. Bouye (3%) have ventured for long stretches.

Enunwa is one of only six receivers with a target share above 30%, and one of only four receivers with a red-zone target share of 50% or higher.

He's the second-highest rated wide receiver in FantasyLabs' Levitan Model and has a projected ownership rate of only 5-8%. — Hartitz

Bet to watch: Under (split first half/game)

I'm rolling with another under in a Jacksonville game. The Jaguars lead the NFL with .094 touchdowns per drive allowed, and I don't expect any explosive plays in the passing game against the best secondary in the NFL — especially since Darnold shouldn't have much time behind a subpar offensive line.

At the end of the season, I think the Jags will have a top-five defense and the Jets a bottom-five offense.

The Jaguars offense did look great against the Patriots, but I think that spoke more to the Pats' defensive issues (a lot of which were due to injuries).

This is still a unit breaking in all new pieces on the outside with Blake Bortles at quarterback and a banged up Fournette.

Just look at their production in their other two games against the Giants and Titans (26 total points).

And don’t sleep on the Jets defense, which ranks No. 2 overall in Football Outsiders' DVOA and No. 1 against the pass. There don't appear to be any holes, as New York grades out sixth overall in pass defense against WR1, WR2 and the slot, and in the top 10 against TEs and RBs, too.

Everyone is familiar with Jacksonville's dynamic corner duo, but it’s the Jets 1-2 corner punch of Morris Claiborne and Trumaine Johnson that actually grades out as the best in the NFL this season.

Don't expect either team to get much through the air, which means the clock should be moving throughout. Add in some potential winds, and I don't see how either team gets to 21.

I like the under here and would also look at the Jets team total under. — Stuckey

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.