The Detroit Lions (7-5) host the Dallas Cowboys (6-5-1) to open Week 14 on Thursday Night Football on December 4. Kickoff from Ford Field in Detroit, Mich., is set for 8:15 p.m. ET. TNF will broadcast on Prime Video.
The Lions are 3-point favorites over the Cowboys on the spread (Lions -3; -115); the game total is 54.5 points. Detroit is a -165 moneyline favorite and Dallas is a +140 underdog.
Below, you can find our Cowboys vs Lions picks for Thursday Night Football, which include predictions for the spread, game total and four player props.
Cowboys vs Lions Picks & Predictions
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Thursday Night Football Odds
- Cowboys vs Lions Moneyline: Cowboys +140, Lions -165
- Cowboys vs Lions Spread: Cowboys +3 (-105), Lions -3 (-115)
- Cowboys vs Lions Total: 54.5
Cowboys vs Lions odds via bet365
Cowboys vs Lions Spread Prediction
The Lions play one of the league’s highest rates of man coverage on defense, but over the past few weeks, it’s clear their current personnel is not up to the task of executing this type of system. Just over the past two games, the Lions surrendering more than 17 yards per completion.
Dak Prescott is dialed in right now and he has the skill players — namely, CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens — to win at all levels of the field against the Lions’ pass defense. We have arrived at the point that the Cowboys offense deserves more confidence than does the Lions; there are simply more ways to slow down the Detroit offense.
One of the ways to limit this Lions offense is to stop the run on early downs. Over the past three games, since the acquisition of Quinnen Williams, the Cowboys defense is allowing just 3.3 yards per carry to opposing running backs. The market may not be fully adjusting to how much of the offensive responsibility Jared Goff will bear moving forward.
Goff may have to perform without the benefit of Amon-Ra St. Brown, and obviously, tight end Sam LaPorta is still sidelined. I don’t believe oddsmakers can truly assign a value to the absence of these two crucial pieces to the offense in this exact spot because the Lions bounce-back seems so likely at Ford Field.
I am willing to ride with the public here by grabbing the points with what might be the better offense, and dare I say, the better defense.
Pick: Cowboys +3 (-105)
Cowboys vs Lions Over/Under Pick
By Billy Ward
As a lifelong Lions fan, I’ve spent most of the past two seasons concerned with all of the injuries on the defensive side of the ball. Detroit has played the vast majority of its games over the last two seasons without key defensive pieces, particularly in the secondary.
However, heading into Thursday Night Football it’s the offense that has me concerned.
Detroit is missing its top three tight ends, four of its five starting offensive lineman are questionable (not including Christian Mahogany, who is on IR but was a starter), and most importantly, will likely be without Amon-Ra St. Brown, who is questionable with an ankle injury.
The Lions are playing it close to the vest with St. Brown — the injury he suffered on Thanksgiving was originally described as “week to week,” but he’s now listed as questionable despite not turning in a single practice since then. With No. 3 wide receiver Kalif Raymond already ruled out, that means the Lions' passing game is extremely depleted if St. Brown can’t go.
That is a big problem against the Cowboys, who have been better defensively since acquiring Quinnen Williams at the trade deadline. They’ve allowed 70 rushing yards per game since the Nov. 4 trade, compared to more than double that before then.
Detroit should struggle to move the ball while Dallas will be under no pressure to take chances down field. Despite that, the total is 54.5 – a number that will likely drop if and when St. Brown is ruled out.
Jump on the under before then.
Pick: Under 54.5 (-110)
Cowboys vs Lions Player Props: Jahmyr Gibbs
By Brit Devine
Seeing Jahmyr Gibbs at a 16.5 for longest rush is something that simply shouldn't be happening. Over the last four games, Gibbs has out-carried David Montgomery 62 to 34, has played 67% of snaps to Montgomery's 41%, and has gone over this line in three of those games.
The Lions are racking up injuries in the receiving corps and should be relying on Gibbs as the focal point of the offense, as he is clearly their best player on offense.
The Cowboys defense is better than it was to start the season, but a player with Gibbs' explosiveness can break a long one against anyone. With his takeover of the backfield finally happening, this line is simply at least a yard too low to me.
I would play this to 17.5 for 2 units.
Pick: Jahmyr Gibbs Longest Rush Over 16.5 Yards (-115); bet to 17.5 yards
Cowboys vs Lions Player Props: David Montgomery
While this was a split backfield for the Lions near the beginning of the season, it has very clearly turned into Jahmyr Gibbs being the clear go-to running back.
Montgomery only has five, six and eight touches over the last three games and has failed to surpass 32 rushing yards in any of those contests.
The Cowboys have been bad versus the rush, but after the addition of Quinnen Williams, it has been much better. I have Montgomery projected for 5 yards under this number, making this a great bet.
Pick: David Montgomery Under 34.5 Rushing Yards (-110); bet to 33.5
Cowboys vs Lions Props: Jared Goff
By Grant Neiffer
Even with Amon-Ra St. Brown questionable to play tonight, this line for Jared Goff's passing yards is too low.
This game has a massive total of 54.5, and the Cowboys have allowed the third-most passing yards per game this season and may have the worst pass defense in the league.
This game is being played in Ford Field, where we've seen massive offensive games over the years, and Goff has been passing at a higher rate since head coach Dan Campbell took over playcalling.
I have Goff projected for 15 yards over this number.
Pick: Jared Goff Over 252.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Cowboys vs Lions Anytime Touchdown Prop
By Grant Neiffer
The odds are a bit low for George Pickens in this spot, but the game environment and the matchup are far too good to pass up.
Pickens has been great against man coverage this season — logging 3.1 yards per route run — and Detroit plays man defense at one of the highest rates in the NFL.
The total in this game is massive, sitting at 54.5, and as 3-point dogs the Cowboys could be throwing a lot. The Lions force targets to opposing WRs at one of the highest rates in the league and we've seen countless games in Detroit with massive scores.
I have Pickens with around a 50% chance of scoring in this spot, making this a great EV bet.
Pick: George Pickens Anytime Touchdown (+130)
