NFL Week 14 opens with an NFC clash on Thursday Night Football as the Detroit Lions take on the Dallas Cowboys.
That's where I begin my Week 14 picks, followed by bets, leans and passes for the rest of the weekend slate, including Sunday Night Football and Monday Night Football.
Every week, I break down my thoughts on every NFL game from a betting perspective. NFL odds move throughout the week, and getting action in at key numbers can be the difference between a good and great betting season.
NFL Week 14 Odds & Picks
| Table of Contents |
|---|
| Thursday Night Football |
| Passes |
| Leans |
| NFL Week 14 Picks |
| Sunday Night Football |
| Monday Night Football |
Thursday Night Football
Cowboys vs Lions
| Cowboys Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | +140 |
| Lions Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | -165 |
The Lions are falling fast with a 3-4 record over their past seven games, and the defense is a big reason as to why. They just yielded 24 points to the Packers after giving up 27 to the Giants, and in the last five weeks, they've ranked 29th of 32 teams in EPA allowed per dropback.
That will make this one a lot tougher than it needs to be, considering the Cowboys have sat firmly in the top five of the league in most passing metrics all year. The offense continues to produce, putting up roughly 29 points per game in their last three against the Chiefs, Eagles and Raiders, and now the running game has begun to blossom to boot.
Detroit's pass rush has been its biggest weapon, but it's also unlikely to faze a quarterback in Dak Prescott who's been protected poorly all year long and who owns a solid 83.9 passer rating under pressure. With that, and several names still missing or in danger of sitting again up front on offense, I don't think we can look past Dallas here — even in a theoretical "get right" spot for the Lions against a bad defense. I just don't think this offense can keep up with the Cowboys.
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Passes
Steelers vs Ravens
| Steelers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -110 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | +235 |
| Ravens Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -110 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | -290 |
It's pretty sad, because this is always a game on the calendar I look forward to, but I really just don't feel good about playing anything in this game. The Steelers' offense looked lost against Buffalo last week, and it's disappeared on far too many occasions. Aaron Rodgers' play has suffered since the left arm injury, and it's really been up to Kenneth Gainwell and the Steelers' backfield to move the ball.
Well, the Steelers will have to lean on him again here. Baltimore ranks second in DVOA versus the past over the last five weeks and has picked up the slack versus the run, too, ranking eighth over that span. There should be a shortage of offense for Pittsburgh, but can we really say Baltimore's offense will run away with this one after its showing against a worse Bengals defense? I know Cincy has been playing well on that side of the ball, but Baltimore is supposed to be unstoppable without Lamar Jackson — and we're still waiting to see that post-injury.
Verdict: Pass
Saints vs Buccaneers
| Saints Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -110 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | +350 |
| Buccaneers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -110 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | -450 |
The Saints haven't really been hurt by quarterback Tyler Shough since making a change at the position, but it's not like Desmond Ridder was really playing that poorly before he was benched. This offense has several issues, namely playing without two running backs and perhaps Chris Olave here, too, so I don't really think there are many edges to be found here.
Tampa isn't exactly surging at the moment, and even with a tough schedule it's failed to produce on both sides of the ball. With that said, it may get healthier at receiver here with Chris Godwin and Mike Evans looking possible to play, and a banged up Baker Mayfield continues to practice. You'd have to think the Buccaneers' offense recovers here against one of the worst pass defenses in football, but I have too many reservations to lay over a touchdown.
Verdict: Pass
Titans vs Browns
| Titans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -110 | 34 -110o / -110u | +175 |
| Browns Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -110 | 34 -110o / -110u | -210 |
I see no reason to bet this game; we've hardly seen Shadeur Sanders and even if he irons things out in the coming weeks, he doesn't have much of an offense to work with, judging by the first half of the season. The run game is nonexistent, there are few weapons to speak of in the passing game, and those are two bad things for a rookie signal-caller.
Now, the defense has been great, and in theory, you'd figure that should spell the end for Cam Ward and the Titans' offense. I think he's looked much better in recent weeks — other than last Sunday against Jacksonville — so it's certainly possible we could see points. I really want to talk myself into the Over, and maybe a long injury report for the Browns will do it for me. Let's see who actually plays here before we do anything.
Verdict: Pass
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Leans
Seahawks vs Falcons
| Seahawks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -105 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | -380 |
| Falcons Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -115 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | +290 |
I've been an advocate for the New York Jets — for better or for worse — in the last six or so weeks, so I'm not going to sit here and kill the Falcons for losing to a team that has firmly been on the rise over that span. What I certainly can't get past is the play of Kirk Cousins, who's currently sporting an 87.1 passer rating through five games.
It's been rough on this offense, which had done great work on the ground for most of the year alongside Michael Penix, Jr., and while there haven't been a ton of turnovers from Cousins — and there have been some big passing plays — there's been absolutely no consistency here.
There are two things that have to scare you here if you're thinking of playing Atlanta: one is that the Seahawks have ranked 12th in completion percentage against the deep ball (20+ yards) this season, and the other is that they currently lead the league in DVOA versus the run.
Now, the Falcons' defense has done a good job against deep passing in its own right, but the Seahawks have run at the highest clip in the league and have been more reliant upon short completions to move the ball. Even with Sam Darnold questionable for this game, the backfield should shine for Seattle and its defense should render Atlanta ineffective once again.
Verdict: Lean Seahawks -7
Rams vs Cardinals
| Rams Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | -425 |
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | +325 |
I feel like I've won on the Cardinals just a handful of times this year, but it hasn't been for a lack of effort. Arizona's put forth some admirable fights despite a lack of talent, and could easily stand even better than 6-6 against the spread this year.
Now, how dangerous are we feeling? Arizona's secondary has been undeniably good for months now, but Matt Stafford might be the best passer in the league right now. He'll have to wait and see if Davante Adams and Kyren Williams will suit up, but all signs point to yes, so we're looking at the biggest test yet for this secondary.
I think Arizona can stand up to the Rams' offense a bit, but this is a team that's still squeezed 21 points out of its group even when it's been slowed down. Can the Cardinals run it up enough on this offense? I don't really believe they can, but I continue to come away encouraged with each passing game. This team plays hard, they make some big plays, and they can cover this number.
Verdict: Lean Cardinals +8
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NFL Week 14 Picks
Commanders vs Vikings
| Commanders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2 -110 | 42 -110o / -110u | +110 |
| Vikings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2 -110 | 42 -110o / -110u | -130 |
Marcus Mariota and the Commanders really deserved a win last weekend, but a failed two-point conversion in the final seconds denied them the chance to pick up a critical win as they look to stay in the playoff race. It's looking like a must-win for both crummy teams in that case, and I think we have to go with the better quarterback.
Mariota's performed well each time Washington's been forced to go to him, and after putting a scare into one of the league's best defenses he'll now draw a Vikings team ranked 17th in DVOA against the pass and marginally above average against the run.
The latter is going to be the bigger deal, considering Washington does a ton of running, and it's certainly not encouraging that the team's not only ranked 15th in DVOA against the run in the last five weeks but has been picked apart two straight games by a run-heavy team.
Now, this is a pass-heavy Vikings team, even though JJ McCarthy has looked terrible in his rookie year, and more than that they like to throw deep. Washington's secondary has been the second-worst against the deep ball this season and very bad overall, and Aaron Jones looks to be trending towards playing, so I'm not quite as sour as normal on McCarthy in this spot.
With Daniels' return a slim possibility and both offenses in a good spot, it's time to fire up this Over.
Verdict: Bet Over 42
Bengals vs Bills
| Bengals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 53.5 -110o / -110u | +220 |
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 53.5 -110o / -110u | -270 |
It feels like everyone in the world will be on the Bengals here following their huge win over the Ravens, and I think I'm right there with them. Sure, there's probably no Trey Hendrickson for Cincinnati, but we saw last week that a strong pass rush will mean very little against Buffalo if you can't stop this team on the ground. Josh Allen went just 15-for-23 for 123 yards, but it was James Cook (and Ray Davis) who really put the hurt on Pittsburgh.
Cincinnati's numbers against the run may not look all that appealing on the whole, but there have been some marginal improvements in recent weeks, which have led the defense to fifth place in DVOA on the ground.
With the offense waking up following the return of Joe Burrow, and Tee Higgins looking hopeful to play, Cincinnati should be right there. The Bills' defense has looked bad in the past five weeks, save for an easy matchup against the Steelers last weekend, and Cincy has shown the ability to move the ball all year, even without Burrow. It's been the defense that's held this team back, and things have been going much better.
Verdict: Bet Bengals +5.5
Dolphins vs Jets
| Dolphins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 +100 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | -155 |
| Jets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -120 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | +130 |
After a long two-month wait, it's time to hammer the Jets in their second game of the year versus the Dolphins. The first time these teams met, the Jets got an excellent performance out of Justin Fields and 197 yards on just 28 carries offensively, amounting to seven yards per tote and a whopping 7.1 yards per play overall.
Now, New York hindered itself in the first half with two turnovers, and it went on to fumble the opening kickoff of the second half. After that, the Jets marched down the field only to be stopped by some of the most egregious penalties you've ever seen. If you don't believe me, take a look at this offensive pass interference on Garrett Wilson, which removed a touchdown early in the fourth that would have made it a one-score game. There was also a hold called on the Jets when one of their lineman had his helmet punched off, and some no-calls on very late hits against Fields.
Now, that may sound like a brief, heavily-biased rant, but the fact remains that this Jets offense had no issues against a weak Dolphins defense, and had it not been for some very unlucky and questionable calls they may have wound up winning that game instead of losing it by six.
All the while, New York rendered Tua Tagovailoa rather ineffective and held the Dolphins to a respectable four yards per carry. All that's happened since is the Jets' run defense has remained stingy and the pass defense has improved with Sauce Gardner packing his bags for Indy.
New York's got three wins in its last five and while its offense continues to be a work in progress it should have no issues running on a flat defense given the way the last game between the two went.
Colts vs Jaguars
| Colts Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | -130 |
| Jaguars Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | +110 |
The Colts are just 1-4 in their last five, and now they've lost Sauce Gardner to what looks to be a potentially serious injury that will at least keep him out a few games. It's not as if they were winning with him, though, going just 1-2 since his arrival — and this defense has left a lot to be desired against plenty of middling offenses.
The Jaguars, at least in my estimation, classify as one of those. They'd run the ball pretty well for the first half of the season until opponents realized Trevor Lawrence still can't beat them. Now, they sit 14th in rushing DVOA and 21st through the air.
Indy's offense has stalled in recent games, sure but it's also had to play some great secondaries. Jacksonville has ranked around the middle of the league against the pass all year, leaning on its run defense, but that will be rather irrelevant here against a solid passing attack. Two key edge rushers and two standouts at linebacker are also questionable for this one, so we really should play the contender and not the pretender here. Make no mistake, Jacksonville cannot hang with Indianapolis offensively.
Verdict: Bet Colts -1.5
Broncos vs Raiders
| Broncos Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 40 -110o / -110u | -425 |
| Raiders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 40 -110o / -110u | +325 |
At this point, we can say the Raiders don't really have an offense. Geno Smith and Ashton Jeanty may be talented, but this offensive line has both failed to protect Smith and give any sort of push up front for Jeanty.
So, it's really been a chore watching Las Vegas, and it's seemed even when it does run into a bad defense that it's just impossible to score. It only mustered up seven points against Denver the last time these sides met, and has scored well under 15 points per game in the last four.
I'm not really fixated on the Raiders' offense here, rather how their defense will do against Bo Nix — who has been palatable at best in my estimation. He's struggled to control the ball, ranks 20th in Average Depth of Target, and has made a living on both running and making the easy throws this year.
The Raiders do sit ninth in DVOA versus the pass in the last five weeks and second against the run, so there's certainly hope here that they can turn this one into a carbon copy of that nailbiter in Week 10.
Verdict: Bet Raiders +7.5
Bears vs Packers
| Bears Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -105 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | +240 |
| Packers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -115 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | -300 |
I realize that the Bears are now the No. 1 seed in the NFC, but I'm not going to treat them all that different from the way we spoke of them in the last few weeks. This is an overall solid team with no discernable weaknesses, but there aren't too many scary weapons either. The ground game would have to be the biggest liability for Green Bay given Chicago's continued dominance there, and they do continue to rank near the bottom part of the league against the run over the last handful of weeks.
Injuries haven't really hampered the defense, but a plethora of absences at receiver coupled with injuries to Josh Jacobs and Tucker Kraft have taken the wind out of the Packers' sails offensively. Chicago has blitzed the 11th-most in football on average, meanwhile, and Jordan Love has had some issues facing pressure at times this year.
I'm just not feeling either side here, and I think the number indicates that the Packers are probably the correct play. I do think both defenses have an opportunity to go nuts on offense, however, given Chicago's generosity and its ability to run the ball.
Verdict: Bet Over 44.5
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Sunday Night Football
Texans vs Chiefs
| Texans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 +100 | 42 -110o / -110u | +155 |
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -120 | 42 -110o / -110u | -185 |
I think many understand this sentiment by now, but the Chiefs aren't necessarily as bad as they may seem at 6-6. They've played the toughest schedule according to Pro Football Focus and have come away empty in several one-score games. They'll be looking to avoid a close one with Houston here, and they'll look to get better from their defense, which ranks 27th by DVOA in the last five weeks.
The issue is, I'm not entirely sure the Texans got it like that. They've scored just around 20 points per game in their last three amidst some terrible pass blocking, and that in chorus with one of the best coverage units in football could mean trouble for Houston.
We just haven't seen this offense produce anything of note, except for a big game versus a Ravens defense which was one of the worst in football at the time and 36 points against a bad Jaguars team. I don't see the Chiefs getting burnt here, especially with the secondary remaining near the top of the league in coverage according to PFF, and on the flip side Kansas City's preference to throw short should remove some of the glaring edges Houston has on defense. There's that, and the fact that Houston may be without starters at corner, defensive tackle and safety as well.
Verdict: Bet Chiefs -3.5
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Monday Night Football
Eagles vs Chargers
| Eagles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -120 | 40.5 -110o / -110u | -160 |
| Chargers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 +100 | 40.5 -110o / -110u | +135 |
The Eagles' offense no-showed last week against the Bears, and it's really failed to show up for most of the year. It now ranks just 24th in DVOA over the last five weeks, but the Chargers have somehow been worse, ranking 29th.
So, while this game may have the allure of one featuring two competent offenses, I'm not so sure that's the case. The Chargers may be down near the bottom of the league against the run, but we've seen that even superior blocking hasn't been enough to get the old Saquon Barkley back. They're eighth against the pass, and while that's not Philly's preferred play type it's where it's had more success.
The Eagles' defense has stood tall against the pass, ranking first in completion percentage and ninth in yards per attempt, making it hard to trust either offense here.
Verdict: Lean Under 40.5
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