The Dallas Cowboys (6-5-1) and Detroit Lions (7-5) open Week 14 on Thursday Night Football. Kickoff is set for in 8:15 p.m. ET from Ford Field in Detroit, Mich. The game will broadcast live on Amazon Prime Video.
The Lions are favored by -3 on the spread over the Cowboys (Lions -3), with the over/under set at 54.5. The Lions are -165 favorites to win outright on the moneyline, while the Cowboys are +140 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Thursday Night Football preview and Cowboys vs Lions prediction.
Cowboys vs Lions Prediction
- Cowboys vs Lions pick: Under 54.5 (-110)
My Cowboys vs Lions best bet is on the total under 54.5. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Cowboys vs Lions Odds
| Cowboys Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | +140 |
| Lions Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | -165 |
Cowboys vs Lions Thursday Night Football Preview
When the Cowboys Have the Ball
The Cowboys offense continues to play at a high level and helped lead them to a 31-28 win over the Chiefs in a must-win game on Thanksgiving. It was the second straight game in which Dak Prescott threw for 300+ yards as he's taking advantage of having the best WR duo in the NFL right now with CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens.
The Lions secondary would have seen a huge boost if FS Kerby Joseph were able to return from his knee injury, which has kept him sidelined since Week 6. He practiced Monday, but he has already been ruled out for tonight’s game, meaning his next possible chance to return is Week 15.
Brian Branch (toe) is listed questionable with a toe injury that he has played through for a few weeks now. He should be expected to play, but if he’s ruled out, that would be a massive injury that would likely move the spread down to Cowboys +2.5, and the total could go up 0.5-1 points.
The Cowboys' run game has been solid this year — with Javonte Williams being a pleasant surprise — but they’ve desperately needed a backup to step up after Miles Sanders’ season-ending toe injury, and with rookie Jaydon Blue being a healthy scratch most weeks.
Malik Davis stepped up in a big way (3/47/1) against the Chiefs. The Cowboys might consider giving him a bit more work going forward to keep Williams fresh and possibly boost efficiency even more.
However, this is a tougher matchup against the Lions’ run defense, led by LB Jack Campbell, which ranks seventh in DVOA against the run.
I’m expecting the Cowboys to lean pass-heavy in this matchup, and, as I mentioned last week, LT Tyler Guyton is out again for this game, meaning Nate Carter will fill in again.
Carter has struggled mightily, allowing pressure on Prescott's blindside, and he was also a liability in the run game last week. We could see a few plays tonight where having a backup LT slows the Cowboys offense on key plays.
I also think referee Shawn Hochuli’s tendencies could be a factor in slowing down the Cowboys, just enough, at key times, per my pick note below.
When the Lions Have the Ball
The Lions’ offensive line has been a serious concern over the last few weeks. They’ve struggled to protect Jared Goff, who was under pressure on 47% of his dropbacks last week, the third-highest rate in Week 13.
Granted, it was against the Packers’ pass rush, but the Lions' line has also dealt with injuries, with LG Christian Mahogany on IR, and Taylor Decker, Kayode Awosika, Graham Glasgow and Penei Sewell all questionable tonight. We could see everyone suit up, but if 1-2 of them are ruled out, especially Sewell, that would be a massive blow.
Frank Ragnow was reportedly attempting to return from retirement, but he failed his physical because of a grade-3 hamstring tear. It was wild that he thought he could return that quickly while dealing with an injury that clearly needed immediate medical attention.
Regardless, the line could be an issue again tonight against a Cowboys defense that has been much improved since adding Quinnen Williams before the trade deadline.
Last week, I failed to mention the Cowboys' upgrades at LB, where the Cowboys added Logan Wilson (from the Bengals) and DeMarvion Overshown returning from injury. Kenneth Murray Jr. had been struggling this season so getting much-needed upgrades at LB has also helped the Cowboys defense.
The Lions’ skill positions are also dealing with uncertainties.
Amon-Ra St. Brown is listed as questionable with a low ankle sprain that knocked him out early in the Thanksgiving game. He has not practiced yet this week, and the team is waiting as long as possible to rule him out.
If this were a Sunday game, that would increase his likelihood to return and play, but on a short week, his status is much tougher to project. He could be closer to doubtful.
Sam LaPorta remains on IR. Backup TE Brock Wright and third WR/punt returner Kalif Raymond are also out again.
The Lions could be missing a ton of key offensive players and the current version of the Cowboys defense is much better than their season-long metrics would indicate.
Cowboys vs Lions Prediction, Betting Analysis
My bet on the first-half under 27.5 for the Cowboys-Chiefs game didn’t hit last week — but nearly everything went wrong for the first quarter and a half, and it still almost stayed under before a long 43-yard TD run with three minutes left in the half sealed it. If the Cowboys didn't get that score and settle for a field goal, it would’ve stayed under 27.5.
It's worth nothing the sun-related angle at AT&T Stadium factored in a couple times — most notably on a potential big play that George Pickens missed and clearly blamed on the sun being in his eyes. That definitely helped slow down each offense at times. Remember, even if a few key factors work in our favor, it doesn’t guarantee a game will actually stay under the total.
That’s also part of why I’m not shying away from the under again tonight for Cowboys-Lions.
Both teams played in games that went "over" in record-setting national TV games on Thanksgiving, including the Chiefs-Cowboys game, which was the most-watched regular-season NFL game ever. The market is expecting a ton of points; I am, too.
The total has reached 54.5, nearly the highest number you’ll see these days. I project the total closer to 53 so I'm showing some slight value on the under, but I think a lot of the key factors I laid out above could help this game to sneak under the total.
But I also think the officiating crew could play a sneaky part. This game will be officiated by Shawn Hochuli, who is the most profitable under referee since 2021, with the under hitting at a 46-28 (61%) clip in his games for a massive +18% return.
I don’t treat every trend like gospel — a lot of them scream louder than their sample size deserves, and most are really just waiting to regress back toward the average. That said, the 2025 result of 7-5 to the under (58%) still qualifies as a pretty strong signal.
When it comes to ref stats, I like to dig into why something could even trend that way. Looking closer, Hochuli's crew has consistently called false starts at a top-five rate nearly every season. This year, they’re doing it more than ever, currently averaging 3.3 per game.
The Cowboys, especially in road games with crowd noise, are often the team most impacted by that particular penalty. The Lions' offensive line has been excellent at limiting false starts, but if 1-2 of their starters are ruled out tonight, it could disrupt their cadence enough for Hochuli’s crew, which has been strict enforcing pre-snap penalties, to call a few more than usual.
The same idea applies to offensive holding calls (another killer for drives), where Hochuli’s games have generally been above average in holding call rates. The Cowboys have committed offensive holding at the fourth-highest rate this year. And if Detroit is down a couple O-line starters, it could create more holding and pre-snap issues than usual.
So, do a couple of extra false start or holding calls guarantee the game stays under 54.5? Absolutely not. But, historically, those are the flags worth monitoring and those are the kinds of small cracks that could slow things down just enough to give the under a shot considering that we’ve seen Hochuli games sneak under at a high rate over the last few years.
The Cowboys' and Lions' red-zone TD% allowed both rank bottom six on the season. Red-zone TD% is a stat that tends to bounce around and often regresses toward the league average over time, so either defense allowing fewer red-zone touchdowns than their current rate is pretty likely going forward.
Again, the total might still soar over 54.5, but there are enough little things to watch that could tighten the screws just a bit. If you’re holding an over 54.5 ticket, you basically need everything to go perfectly.
The market is likely going to continue to bet heavily on the over, so this is a game where I'm OK just waiting to see if it does get bet up to 55-55.5 as there aren’t many key numbers in this range — 55 is one of them.
Pick: Under 54.5
Spread
The Lions are 3-point favorites at most books; I projected them at -3.5. I have no pick for either side of the spread.
Moneyline
I have no pick for either side of the moneyline. moneyline
Over/Under
As I detailed above, the game total under 54.5 is my pick for this game.
