Welcome back to the Pick Six.
Early every week, we look ahead at the upcoming NFL slate and parlay six moneylines that "should" win — at least on paper — in the week to come.
It's a quick, early look at the upcoming Week 14 games, and just like any good pick-six, we'll wrap up with my Extra Point, one more thing you need to know and a future to bet as we flip the NFL calendar to another new week.
For Week 14, we're going with six favorites all in the main Sunday slate, three early afternoon and three late.
Our Week 14 moneyline parlay has odds of +410 at DraftKings as of publishing. Let's get to the NFL picks!
NFL Week 14 Parlay Picks
Buccaneers Moneyline
Saints vs Buccaneers; Sunday 1:00 p.m. ET
I grabbed Under 43.5 in this one already on the Hot Read, and the Saints defense has been surprisingly good lately, so this could be a sweat, but I trust the Bucs to get a win they desperately need, now that the Panthers are hot on their NFC South trail.
It looks like Alvin Kamara will be out again, and he's a big miss in this game against an opponent he's been great against, especially as a receiver. The Saints just don't have many weapons to attack Todd Bowles' stout defense with, leaving a tough task on the road for rookie quarterback Tyler Shough.
The Saints continue to be horrendous in the first quarter, now 1-11 against the spread (ATS) on the season, and the Bucs are 8-4 ATS in the first half. That should set up a familiar script for Saints games — dig an early hole, fall too far behind to catch up, and make a valiant push before finding another hilarious way to lose.
I personally enjoyed the latest effort, with the Saints scoring a touchdown Sunday, down eight, but throwing a pick-two on the conversion to fall behind by four, leaving them unable to kick a winning field goal after a miraculous onside recovery. Just another Saints game in 2025.
New Orleans is more than content losing, and Tampa Bay badly needs this one. The Bucs have won six of the last seven in the rivalry. No reason not to make it seven of eight.
Seahawks Moneyline
Seahawks vs Falcons; Sunday 1:00 p.m. ET
The last two Vikings quarterbacks meet in this one: Sam Darnold and Kirk Cousins are going head-to-head.
This wasn't supposed to be Cousins, but things keep going sideways in this lost season for Atlanta.
A once-promising Falcons defense ranks closer to the bottom 10 in DVOA over the last six weeks, and the offense continues to trend in the wrong direction without Michael Penix and Drake London.
That's not going to go well against a Seattle defense playing with its hair on fire after one of the best performances of the season. The Seahawks lead the league in Defensive DVOA and have been elite at pressuring the QB, which spells bad news for Cousins.
Seattle has weirdly been better on the road this season, both offensively and defensively, and the Falcons defense has been worse at home. Atlanta will try to pressure Darnold, but when he does have time to throw, it should be a nice bounce-back week for star wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba against a beatable secondary.
The Seahawks will also have a massive special-teams advantage in this game, with the teams top- and bottom-three by DVOA there, and those hidden edges add up — they just cost the Falcons a win last week.
Seattle is the far better team and should take care of business with ease. The Seahawks defense is just too much for Atlanta right now.
Dolphins Moneyline
Dolphins vs Jets; Sunday 1:00 p.m. ET
Both teams come into this game with one-off wins, and the Dolphins are a surprising 5-7 and really competing.
Believe it or not, Miami ranks in the top seven by DVOA over the last six weeks. The Dolphins have rebuilt their offense around DeVon Achane, and Miami's defense has improved from awful early to respectable to downright good.
That defense has been the best in the league against the run in the middle part of the season, and that's a tough matchup for a Jets offense that is still the run-heaviest attack in the league.
The path to beat Miami's defense is by air, and it will be tough for the Jets to do that without Garrett Wilson — or a real quarterback.
The Jets defense ranks in the bottom five by DVOA against both the run and the pass over the last six games, leaving New York ripe for the picking. This is the exact sort of opponent head coach Mike McDaniel and QB Tua Tagovailoa have traditionally done well against, excellent front-runners against sub-.500 teams.
Winter conditions could leave this closer, and we know how Tagovailoa has struggled in bad weather. However, many of those high-profile games were played in places like Buffalo, Kansas City, and Green Bay — against great teams with elite quarterbacks. The Jets are not that.
The Dolphins have won 13 of 16 against the Jets, and Miami has averaged 28.6 PPG against this Jets defense over the last three seasons.
Expect Miami to get out to an early lead and establish itself as the better team, while the Jets get back to their losing ways.
Broncos Moneyline
Broncos vs Raiders; Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET
Is anyone playing worse football right now than the Raiders? The list isn't long, if anyone at all, for a team that's beaten only the Titans since Week 1.
Las Vegas is the worst team in football by DVOA over the last six weeks. The defense is fading after a decent start, and the offense still looks absolutely lost, even after moving on from OC Chip Kelly.
The problems start with the terrible offensive line, and that's going to be a big problem against the Broncos. Vegas has no shot to run the ball, and that should allow Nic Bonitto and all those Denver pass rushers to tee off on poor Geno Smith.
Get ready for Sack City in Las Vegas.
It's hard to imagine the Raiders finding many points in this game. They've scored 16 or fewer points in over half their games, including each of the last four. Denver held them to seven in an ugly win in the previous meeting, and this division rivalry has ended in a season sweep each of the past five years.
Besides, the Broncos are quietly finally playing some pretty good football — and not just on defense. Denver ranks in the top five by DVOA over the last six games, including a fringe top 10 on offense. The Broncos still start slow sometimes, but should find answers late if they need them against this Raiders team.
It's rarely pretty or comfortable for Denver, but the Broncos keep winning. No reason for that to change against the terrible Raiders.
Packers Moneyline
Bears vs Packers; Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET
We get this matchup twice in the next three weeks, and the Bears will hope to rewrite history, because recent history has not been kind to Chicago. The Packers have won 26 of the last 30 meetings and had won 11 in a row until the Bears finally beat Green Bay's backups in Week 18 last season.
This feels like the sell-high spot for Chicago after its win of the season in Philadelphia on Black Friday.
The Bears are the one-seed right now, but could drop to the seven-seed if they lose this game. And outside of that Eagles win, what else have the Bears really proven on their resume? They dominated Dallas way back in Week 3 before the Cowboys looked competent, and the Lions and Ravens dominated them in their other two games against quality competition.
Chicago has lived and died on explosive plays from its offense, and that could be trouble against a Packers defense that's been as good as any at eliminating explosive plays and the deep pass. On the flip side, Chicago has been terrible against deep balls and allows plenty of explosive plays, leaving this defense ripe for the picking by Jordan Love.
Love and the Packers lead the league in passing DVOA, and they should find plenty of room to attack against a Bears defense that's by far the worst unit on the field. Chicago's defense has been even worse on the road, while the Packers have been among the best in the league defensively at home.
When two teams with records this good play late in the season, history usually tells us to bet the favorite. The Packers are the better, more complete team, and this is a new test for Chicago playing with a target on its back as the NFC one-seed on the road in a tough environment.
I'm backing Jordan Love as a sleeper MVP pick at +1900. He just threw four touchdowns on Thanksgiving, and this is a prime showcase spot against a porous defense.
Expect another big performance by Love as the Packers remind the Bears they're still big brother in the Upper Midwest.
Rams Moneyline
Rams vs Cardinals; Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET
The Rams were at the top of everyone's power rankings a week ago before a stunning loss to the Panthers, but don't let that game throw you off the scent.
Los Angeles absolutely dominated Carolina in that game with a huge 61-to-39% Success Rate advantage, but simply lost every big play. The Rams got a pass to the end zone tipped and intercepted and threw a pick-six on the next drive, and the Panthers scored four long touchdowns on busted plays, two of them on all-or-nothing fourth down passes.
The Rams were way better, and they're the far better team in this matchup, too.
Los Angeles should move the ball up and down the field again. The Rams lead the league in Success Rate on offense, while the Cardinals are near the bottom of the league defensively. Arizona doesn't get much pressure on the QB either, so Matthew Stafford should get his MVP case back on track with an easy picking apart of the Cardinals defense on Sunday.
Don't forget, Arizona is still missing its best QB, RB, and maybe WR, and the Rams are still probably the best team in the NFL.
Arizona has hung tight in plenty of close losses this season, but it also lost by 19 and 22 to the 49ers and Seahawks in November.
That's the direction this rivalry has gone in recent years. The Rams have won 14 of the last 17, and only one of those games was closer than seven points, with 10 of them decided by 17 or more.
If the Rams get out ahead early, they could run up the score and not look back, and Arizona simply doesn't have the guns healthy to keep up with LA in a shootout.
Week 14 Moneyline Parlay
- Buccaneers Moneyline
- Seahawks Moneyline
- Dolphins Moneyline
- Broncos Moneyline
- Packers Moneyline
- Rams Moneyline
Anderson's Extra Point
I liked two of my Extra Point ideas so much this week that I already turned them into full articles, so be sure to check those out.
I'm backing Jordan Love at +1900 as an MVP sleeper. He has the underlying advanced metrics already, and the Packers are set up well for a top-two seed in the NFC.
I'm also buying Chiefs stock at its lowest, with Kansas City just mid enough so far to lock itself into a low AFC seed and inadvertently luck into an easier playoff path against the Broncos and Patriots early. Grab Kansas City at +950 to win the AFC and +1800 to win the Super Bowl.
If the Chiefs do make the playoffs, it'll come at the expense of one of the other AFC playoff contenders, so let's add a fade of the Chargers here with Los Angeles +120 to miss the postseason (Caesars).
Everything is going sideways for the Chargers.
The offensive line is a mess with both star tackles out for the season, the top two RBs remain out injured, and now Justin Herbert is also hurt and not even a lock to play this week.
LA's defense has played well; however, this team has boosted its record under Jim Harbaugh by beating up on soft competition, and there's none left on the schedule with the Eagles, Chiefs, Cowboys, Texans, and Broncos remaining, three of those on the road.
FTN has the Chargers 53% to miss the playoffs, and we're getting plus money at +120 for a team that's just got too many injuries on offense to compete down the stretch. The injuries and schedule are just too much for the Chargers to overcome.
