Every week of the NFL regular season, bettors can find matchups to exploit, whether it's a game spread, total, or player props. I'm here specifically to talk about the NFL anytime touchdown props for Week 12 on Sunday, November 23.
Last season, I picked Anytime TD props for every Sunday afternoon game and finished 123-269 (31.4%), with +44.1 units in profit for an 11% ROI.
If you plan to tail these Week 12 TD bets, please use proper bankroll management. For players listed as “Verdict,” those are 1-unit bets. If a player is listed in “Verdict” as a “Sprinkle,” then it would be a 0.2-unit wager, as those are typically long shots.
Let's break down my NFL anytime touchdown picks for Sunday of NFL Week 12.
NFL Week 12 Anytime Touchdown Scorers
| Picks |
|---|
| Steelers vs Bears |
| Jets vs Ravens |
| Giants vs Lions |
| Patriots vs Bengals |
| Seahawks vs Titans |
| Vikings vs Packers |
| Colts vs Chiefs |
| Jaguars vs Cardinals |
| Browns vs Raiders |
| Falcons vs Saints |
| Eagles vs Cowboys |
Steelers vs. Bears
Last week against the Steelers, we went with WR Tee Higgins given how well he’s done against man coverage and single-high safety, which Pittsburgh plays at a top-five rate.
Well, Higgins scored early and we were proven right. So, I’m defaulting to the Bears best weapon vs those coverages and that’s WR Rome Odunze at +160.
Odunze leads the Bears with three touchdowns against man coverage along with ranking first in targets-per-route-run. With 10 red-zone targets, he doubles the next Bear in that category (DJ Moore, 5).
So, I’m riding with Odunze to score his seventh TD of the season.
The Steelers TD props are a bit murky with the uncertainty of Aaron Rodgers or Mason Rudolph starting at QB, but frankly, it doesn’t really matter.
Neither can really scramble at this stage, and given that a big chunk of the Bears defense is on the injury report this week, I’m going to keep it simple and take WR DK Metcalf.
He leads the team by a mile with eight end-zone targets, compared to the next Steeler with two.
He’s been a bit of a forgotten man since he hasn’t scored in a few games, but I think with the Bears ranking 31st in touchdowns allowed to WRs (14), I’ll just slide over to DK for this one.
Verdict: Rome Odunze +160 | DK Metcalf +180
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Jets vs. Ravens
This could be a complete crap showing for the Jets if they’re not careful.
Tyrod Taylor is taking over at QB for Justin Fields so, in theory, the Jets' passing game should see a slight improvement, but with Garrett Wilson out, the options are limited.
That being said, I’m going to channel my inner Sean Koerner and take WR Adonai Mitchell at +550.
Mitchell has been dogged for most of his career as being a great athlete who has hands like a frying pan. He saw season-high six targets in Week 11, but was only able to haul in one catch, as his night was littered with drops.
Still, I think with Taylor at QB, another week of practice, and a matchup where he gets to see a bit more man coverage and single-high safety (Ravens play both at top-five rate), this could be the game where Mitchell finally scores the first TD of his NFL career.
On the Ravens side, I’m grabbing TE Mark Andrews at +155.
We hit on him last week at +230 against the Browns on a somewhat improbable rushing TD.
But even then, this is a matchup that suits him because the Jets still play heavy man coverage, and that’s good for Andrews, who leads the Ravens with three TDs against man and sees his target rate go up compared to when he faces zone coverages.
Verdict: Mark Andrews +155 | Adonai Mitchell +550
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Giants vs. Lions
Another man coverage bowl for Giants–Lions, as both teams rank in the top-three in the NFL in man coverage rate, and I’m not really convinced it’s helping either team on pass defense.
Both teams rank in bottom-10 in passing TDs allowed, while they've combined to allow 24 TDs to WRs.
Since both play man defense and single-high safety at top-three rates, let’s target the pass-catchers that do the best against those coverages.
For the Giants, I’m going with TE Theo Johnson.
The sample size isn’t huge for opponents who played man coverage against the Giants this season, with only two games seeing teams rank in the top-10 in Denver and Chicago.
Although Johnson’s TD was a bit flukey against the Broncos, in those two games, he led the Giants in total targets (15) with two in the end zone.
Given how shaky the Giants receiver room is at this stage, Johnson profiles as their best receiver given what we know so far this season, as he leads the team in red-zone targets and receiving TDs.
For the Lions, the TD odds are steamed to hell at the top.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, who is the best Lions WR against man defense with six TDs, is down to -125, while his running mate WR Jameson Williams is down to +130.
As long as TE Brock Wright is still the starting TE in this offense, I’m going to strongly consider him at +400 or better, regardless of matchup.
With TE Sam LaPorta out, Wright saw seven targets in Week 11 in a brutal matchup against the Eagles.
Just be careful to not overextend yourself on Lions pass-catchers because there’s a great chance the Lions just run the ball down the Giants' throat all game since they rank last in defensive DVOA against the run.
Verdict: Theo Johnson +280 | Brock Wright +500
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Patriots vs. Bengals
With Joe Flacco or Joe Burrow at QB, the Bengals passing attack can have some highs, but now they’ll be without WR Ja’Marr Chase.
So, this means WR Tee Higgins will likely see the lion's share of targets this week.
At +120, his odds are a bit steamed, but it’s worth noting that in the five games that Chase has missed in his career, Higgins has scored three touchdowns and tallied at least eight targets in each game.
Still, regardless if Burrow is back or they stick with Flacco, I think the best opportunity is to look at WR3 Mitchell Tinsley at +450.
He’s been the main Bengals WR, other than Higgins, to line up on the outside, and will likely slot into the place of Chase instead of WR Andrei Iosivas, who lines up in the slot 70% of the time.
We’ve seen Tinsley make spectacular catches for touchdowns in the preseason and Week 2 against the Jaguars, and with Bengals likely in a trailing game script with more passing, I’ll take a shot that either QB will throw the ball deep and try to find Tinsley in the end zone.
I know he can be a bit streaky in this offense, but I love this matchup for WR DeMario Douglas.
The Bengals pass defense has been suspect all season and have allowed the most TDs out of the slot in the NFL (16).
Usually, that means you want to bet on a tight end, but with Hunter Henry at +180, let’s take the Patriots WR who lines up in the slot the most at a 81% rate.
With the Bengals giving up six TDs to the slot over the last four games and ranking last in the NFL in defensive DVOA to WR3s, this lines up for Pop to score his fourth TD of the season.
Love the odds on this one at anything above +400.
Verdict: Mitchell Tinsley +450 | DeMario Douglas +425
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Seahawks vs. Titans
This one seems pretty obvious when it comes to the game script.
The Titans have a clear weakness with run defense, and the Seahawks run the ball at nearly the highest rate in the NFL.
Sportsbooks know this too, which is why both Seahawks RBs are steamed at +120 or lower, and even WR1 Jaxon Smith-Njigba is listed at even-odds to score a TD.
If you’re going to bet a Seahawk this week, I think we just ride with TE AJ Barner.
He had season-high 11 targets last week against the Rams along with having his highest snap rate and route participation rate in 2025.
One factor I hadn’t considered for Barner that my guy Sean Koerner mentioned this week is the TE has become the de facto “Tush Push” choice in this offense when they get in short-yardage situations.
He scored a rushing TD in that spot against the Commanders a few weeks ago, and has eight carries on the season.
So, there are a lot of ways Barner could get another TD this week.
I’m trying to find value on the Titans side, but I’m likely passing on them this week.
The Seahawks defense has been so strong and Tennessee has been so out of sync that it feels like a true dart throw if you’re trying to nail down which skill player has the best edge for the Titans.
Verdict: AJ Barner +260 | Pass On Titans
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Vikings vs. Packers
It’s been a brutal stretch for Vikings QB JJ McCarthy, but if sportsbooks are going to offer WR Justin Jefferson at +200 and WR Jordan Addison at +400, I’ll take those every time.
Given the tough matchup against the Packers, McCarthy may be relied on a lot to throw in this matchup, and with another week of practice, should be able to get back on the same page with his receivers.
The reason why I’m taking both of them is Jefferson is usually the receiver that gets schemed up by head coach Kevin O’Connell to get some open looks in the red zone, while Addison is usually the off-script receiver for the Vikings that gets the deep looks.
At these prices, I’m willing to bet both.
The Packers passing offense is a mess and with no RB Josh Jacobs, I’m a bit worried about the scoring upside for Green Bay.
The Vikings defense does have some weak points with eight of their 12 passing TDs given up to wide receivers.
Naturally, you’d think of WR Christian Watson, as we had him last week and he scored twice, but he tends to see a higher target rate against man coverages, and the Vikings tend to play more zone and two-high safety, with the latter ranking first in the NFL.
Every Packers WR is listed on the injury report this week with some sort of ailment, but I keep coming back to the only Packers WR that has decent metrics against two-high safety this season, and that’s WR Matthew Golden.
He has no TDs yet this season, but they usually have 1-2 deep shot throws designed each week for him.
With the TE carousel starting in Green Bay of Luke Musgrave, John Fitzpatrick, and Josh Whyle all getting significant snaps, I’d rather stick to a WR in this one.
Verdict: Justin Jefferson +200 | Jordan Addison +400 | Matthew Golden +425
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Colts vs. Chiefs
I get that the Colts offense runs through RB Jonathan Taylor, but I’m intrigued by WR Josh Downs in this spot.
I initially was considering TE Tyler Warren when he was +200 or better, but his odds have gotten steamed throughout the week.
That’s why I’m looking at Downs now because he’s up to +450 at some spots, and this matchup may suit him better than Alec Pierce or Michael Pittman.
The Chiefs tend to use more man coverage, while also using the fifth-highest rate of two-high safety, and that points to Downs, who leads the team in targets-per-route-run against both of those coverages.
Now, obviously it’s Warren who’s been the top target when the Colts get to the red zone, but it’s Downs who is actually second on the team with nine red zone targets.
All three of his touchdowns have been inside the the 10-yard line. So, look for Downs to get back in the end zone.
With the Colts acquiring CB Sauce Gardner, and CB Charvarius Ward coming back this week, I almost want nothing to do with TE Travis Kelce or WR Rashee Rice.
Both of their odds are steamed and will likely be shadowed by these two all game.
This means I’m going back to WR Xavier Worthy in hopes that he will see some more targets this week.
Worthy hasn’t really been able to get it going since WR Rashee Rice has come back, but he’s at least still ran the most routes of any KC pass-catcher in that span, while seeing three red zone targets.
With the uncertainty past Rice, Kelce, and Worthy, you’re kind of just throwing darts in hopes that one of those three to get the targets, which is a tough sell.
Verdict: Josh Downs +450 | Xavier Worthy +250
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Jaguars vs. Cardinals
I was initially looking at WR Jakobi Meyers again, as he tends to see his target rate go up when facing zone coverages, and the Cardinals haven’t been great at defending the slot, but I think this is the time where we ride the Trevor Lawrence TD wave.
He’s scored five TDs this season, and his 12 red-zone carries rank fifth amongst all NFL quarterbacks.
Jaguars head coach Liam Coen hinted in the offseason that they would try to use T-Law more in the running game near the goal line, and I think they may have figured it out, because he has 19 carries over the last three games (five in red-zone) with three rushing TDs.
The Cardinals have also allowed two or more rushing TDs in four of five games that QB Jacoby Brissett has started.
I know with Brissett at QB, the first and second read for him is TE Trey McBride.
I love McBride and think he’s a top-three TE in the NFL, but now that he's gone nuclear with Brissett, we’re not seeing +200 TD odds anymore, with his line listed closer to +105 this week.
That’s why I’m going back to WR Greg Dortch here because he saw a season-high in snaps and routes run last week with WR Marvin Harrison Jr. out and caught a TD.
With Dortch also being the kick-returner, he could find another way to the end zone as well.
So, at anything over +300, that’s who I’d go with.
Verdict: Trevor Lawrence +320 | Greg Dortch +350
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Browns vs. Raiders
I know the Raiders will likely score some touchdowns against the Browns, but it will not feel great backing QB Geno Smith right now.
His turnovers are crushing for TD props, and he’s been sacked 10 times in the last two games.
So, with the Browns coming to town, he might have zero time to actually make a decent pass, given the pressure their defensive line is generating.
That being said, let's go back to TE Michael Mayer at +500.
Even though TE Brock Bowers swallows up a lot of the attention, Mayer still plays over 70% of snaps and runs routes on over 50% of Geno's dropbacks in games he’s played.
He also has a higher targets-per-route-run against man coverage and single-high safety, which the Browns play at top-three rate.
I expect the Raiders to continue running 12-personnel with 2-TE sets at a top-10 rate, especially with the Browns defensive pressure.
Another angle would be to take the Raiders defense/special teams to score a TD, because if you saw even a few highlights of QB Shadeur Sanders, you know turnovers are likely coming.
Just when you thought it was brutal to pick a Raiders TD prop, now we look over to the Browns side with Sanders at QB.
With the Raiders defense being a bit predictable in that they play zone at the highest rate in the NFL, this would normally mean we go back to TE Harold Fannin at +400, but TE David Njoku has nearly the exact same stats and is listed at +600.
You could bet both, in theory, to cover both TE spots, but I think you just take the one with the longer odds, and that’s Njoku this week.
Verdict: Michael Mayer +500 | David Njoku +600 | Raiders D/ST +850
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Falcons vs. Saints
I’ve routinely bet on Saints WR Chris Olave and TE Juwan Johnson, and while it’s had some moments, it’s been quite streaky overall for touchdowns.
This week, I’m pivoting to the new WR2 in this offense, and that’s Devaughn Vele. He’s essentially been elevated to full-time starter with WR Rashid Shaheed traded and WR Brandin Cooks released.
Vele led all Saints WRs in snaps and routes run in Week 1o, and the Saints seem to be invested in his development after trading for him in the offseason.
Although he only has 13 total targets on the season, two have been end-zone targets, and one of those red-zone targets turned into a TD back in Week 1 against the Niners.
My “Touchdown Show Podcast” co-host Sean Koerner went with Falcons WR KhaDarel Hodge in this spot, and I can’t really disagree with him at +1200.
No Drake London this week, and Koerner mentioned that when London got hurt in the last game, Hodge was a direct replacement for London’s snaps and route participation.
Based on Sean’s TD odds projections, he has him projected for TD odds closer to +700, and while I tend to agree Hodge will get an increase in production, I’m super low on QB Kirk Cousins to make it happen.
He can sometimes move the ball downfield but, much like Raiders QB Geno Smith, those brutal interceptions in key spots are a killer for TD props.
I’m going to sprinkle on Hodge for a little wager, mainly because of Koerner’s conviction, but overall, I’m off Falcons TD props this week.
Verdict: Devaughn Vele +425 | Sprinkle on KhaDarel Hodge +1200
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Eagles vs. Cowboys
When these teams faced off in Week 1, it was the running game mainly featured with five combined touchdowns scored, all from the ground.
The one detail about the Cowboys that stood out was they played zone over 90% of the time with the seventh-highest rate of two-high safety that week, which is in line with how they have typically played throughout the season.
I don’t think they’ll play 90% zone again, but I still think they will do everything they can to limit explosive pass plays, which is why I’m not high on WR A.J. Brown this week, but instead like WR DeVonta Smith.
The Eagles' WR2 has the highest target share against zone coverages among the Devonta-AJ-Goedert trio this season, and he’s scored against teams throughout the year that use heavy zone like the Packers, Vikings and Rams.
This is the game where we have to bet QB Dak Prescott.
We know the stakes. If the Cowboys lose this game, the Eagles all but clinch the division and Dallas will be out of the playoffs.
These are the types of games where you want to bet on Dak to score because the stakes are elevated.
I know he doesn’t scramble like he used to, but this Eagles pass defense is giving up nothing easy and has limited opposing quarterbacks to fewer than 200 yards passing in 9-of-11 games, including Dak.
I do think the Cowboys will have some drives where they can move the ball, but given how well the Eagles have been in coverage, I don’t feel great betting on WR CeeDee Lamb at +125 or George Pickens at +170.
Given the matchup and stakes, I think Dak should have odds closer to +650. So, I love this price at +1000.
Verdict: Devonta Smith +200 | Dak Prescott +1000
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