Michael Pittman over 4.5 receptions -120 at FanDuel Jacksonville allows the most targets per game in the league to players lined up out wide, and with Josh Downs operating from the slot north of 70% of the time he is on the field, that's going to keep Pittman on the outside for around 70%+ of snaps. The Colts other primary outside WR, Alec Pierce, along with Downs both see their target share drop precipitously against zone coverage, of which the Jaguars play eighth-most in the league, including fifth most in the second half of the season. Pittman's target share remains at 22% of routes whether its man or zone coverage. That means Pittman should be targeted heavily, especially in a game with potential downpours where the deeper targets to Pierce may be inadvisable at times with the weather conditions. Pittman's median receptions this year is 5, despite facing just three defenses that rank inside the top 10 in most targets per game to outside receivers. He went over in two of those, with the one under coming against the No. 4 ranked Broncos pass defense with Pat Surtain marking him, and he still caught 4 balls. I love laddering Pittman's receptions in this spot as well. The only other time he faced a defense that allowed a top-five rate of targets to outside WRs was in a one-score game against the No. 13 ranked Steelers pass defense and he caught nine passes on twelve targets. This line is 1.5 points and the Jaguars rank 15th. He could match that Steelers performance here.

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