I was high on Odunze entering the season, and he’s a clear buy-low WR heading into a potential Year 2 breakout in Ben Johnson’s scheme. He should also develop better chemistry with Caleb Williams, who is likely to improve in his own Year 2. Week 1 was a mixed bag. Odunze operated as the clear No. 1 in this new offense, leading the team with a 23% target share. Still, he and Caleb missed on a couple of throws, including one play that was clearly designed for Odunze but never got the ball because Caleb didn’t trust the read. Part of the issue came against Minnesota’s zone-heavy defense, which muted some of Odunze’s upside. Against man coverage, though, he showed exactly why I’m bullish. He ran only four man-coverage routes but drew three targets, and per FantasyPoints data, his 1.333 separation score ranked second-highest in Week 1. That lines up with his ability to consistently win vs. man. The Lions play man at one of the highest rates in the league, and that continued in Week 1 even with a new defensive coordinator. This is the perfect spot to buy low on Odunze, and his yardage prop is the way I want to attack it. I project his median closer to 53.5 yards and give him about a 60% chance to clear 45.5.

Grabbed this on Fri morning. Anything above +200 for me for Odunze.

Via @Wayne_Bets While he was relatively quiet in Week 1, I was highly encouraged by Rome Odunze’s role against the Vikings. He led the Bears in routes run and targets, and Ben Johnson moved him all over the formation. I loved seeing a 7.4-yard aDOT for Odunze - he ran a much more diverse route tree than we saw in his rookie season, and he’s great at winning over the middle of the field. Odunze was excellent against man coverage in his rookie season, posting a 71st percentile success rate against man and an 87th percentile success rate against press coverage, per Reception Perception. If Week 1 is any indication, the Lions are set to remain one of the most man-heavy defenses in the NFL. They led the league with a 52.2% man coverage rate in Week 1 after ranking first with a 45% rate last season per Fantasy Points Data. In a projected trailing game script, with the Bears installed as 6.5-point road underdogs, they will need to open up the offense more after leading for the entire game on Monday night. Johnson knows this Lions defense well, and he’ll have unique plays dialed up to take advantage of their lapses in coverage. Odunze is primed for a Year Two breakout, and this is where it starts.