Schwartz’s Trench Report: Texans-Colts, Browns-Raiders Highlight My Favorite Week 4 NFL Bets

Sep 27, 2018 1:41 PM EDT
  • Former NFL lineman Geoff Schwartz offers his two best Week 4 bets based on the battles up front.
  • The Texans offensive line has looked ugly. How can you find value in Houston's divisional matchup in Indianapolis?
  • Also: Should you bet on the Browns in Baker Mayfield's first NFL start? Here are picks for both games from the trench perspective.

It’s already Week 4 of the NFL season and I got your trench report right here! The Week 3 report went 1-2 after a backdoor cover in Giants-Texans with one second on the clock, bringing us to 4-3 on the season.

Speaking of the Texans, we’ll kick off this week’s picks based on the battles up front with Houston’s road trip to Indianapolis, then look at Baker Mayfield’s first career start in Oakland.


>> All odds as of 2 p.m. ET on Thursday. Download The Action Network App to get real-time odds and track your bets.


Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts

  • Spread: Colts -1.5
  • Over/Under: 47
  • Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: CBS

Houston’s offensive line isn’t good.

The unit is ranked 30th overall by Pro Football Focus, and even that might be generous. It also ranks 25th in Football Outsiders’ adjusted sack rate and in power success, which measures running the ball in got-to-have-it situations: third or fourth down and two or fewer yards.

If you looked at the Texans’ overall rushing stats, you’d notice that they aren’t half-bad. They’ve faced below-average rush defenses on the road against the Patriots and Titans, and last week against the Giants — if you take out runs by Deshaun Watson — Houston backs rushed 14 times for only 23 yards.

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Credit:

Shanna Lockwood-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts line of scrimmage

Follow Geoff Schwartz on Twitter
@geoffschwartz

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SCHEDULE
OPEN
CURR
# BETS
GB
SEA
49.5
-2.5
48.5
-3
HOU
WAS
43
+3
42.5
+3
CIN
BAL
--
--
--
--
PIT
JAC
47.5
+6
47
+6
CAR
DET
50.5
+3
51
+4
DAL
ATL
47.5
-4.5
48.5
-3
TEN
IND
48
-3
48.5
-2
TB
NYG
52
PK
52
-1
OAK
ARI
41
-4
40.5
-5.5
DEN
LAC
47
-7.5
46.5
-7
PHI
NO
54.5
-9
56
-9
MIN
CHI
45.5
-2.5
45
-2.5
KC
LA
63.5
-1
63.5
-3.5