Koerner: NFL Bets Worth Making on Sunday Morning

Sep 22, 2019 10:14 AM EDT

Thomas J. Russo-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jurrell Casey, Jacoby Brissett

  • Sean Koerner identifies four NFL bets to make in the final hours before kickoff.

I release my projected spreads and over/unders for each week’s games on Wednesdays, comparing them to posted odds to identify the best bets. But sometimes the market is a little too close to my projections, and better value can be found once lines reach certain thresholds later in the week.

So which games could be worth a bet in the final hours leading up to kickoff?

Odds as of Sunday morning and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can exclusively bet every NFL spread this season at reduced juice (-105).

Let’s take a look at the four numbers we should look to grab on Sunday morning.

Bengals at Bills

Odds: Bills -6; 44
My Projections: Bills -6.5; 42

This total opened 1.5 points below my projection, but has been bet up to two points higher than my projection with 85% of money flooding the over as of Sunday morning.

It still doesn’t look like the market has reached its apex, as this number could go up to 44.5. Forty-four is a fairly key number, so it’s worth waiting to see if we can get the hook with 44.5. Once it reaches that number, I think the sharps will come in and quickly send it back down to 44 — or even 43.5 — before kickoff.

model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game
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