Week 3 NFL Picks: Giants, Cowboys & Patriots Among Best Spread Bets For Sunday

Chris Raybon, a senior NFL and fantasy football analyst, highlights his favorite Week 3 NFL picks below. He has a 269-206-16 (56.6%) all-time record on NFL bets he's tracked in the Action app.

Week 3 NFL Picks

Patriots -6 vs. Raiders, Under 47

Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET | TV: CBS

Both of these teams scored at least 30 or more points last week, but I see them coming back down to earth this week. The Patriots don’t have to try and outscore Russell Wilson this week and can play more like they did when they beat Miami 21-11 in Week 1. They also have to be more conservative with center David Andrews out.

The Raiders will be without their fastest player and No. 1 receiver Henry Ruggs, while Josh Jacobs (hip) and Darren Waller (knee) both missed practice this week. In the Jon Gruden era, the Raiders are averaging just 17 points per game on the road, 5.47 fewer than at home.

I also expect to see a much better defense than what we saw against Wilson. Intent to not let Wilson beat them with his legs, New England opted to go much more zone-heavy than usual so its defenders would always have eyes on Wilson. That plan obviously backfired, but Derek Carr is the polar opposite and has one scramble all year. With Carr stationary and without Ruggs, Belichick will be able to pull out all of the stops to limit Jacobs on early downs and slow down Waller in passing situations.

I make this line 6.5, as the Patriots have a huge situational advantage with Vegas traveling across the country for an early start. That would be tough before factoring in that Belichick is the best bounce-back coach in the biz, with a barely believable 40-15 (73%) record against the spread after an outright loss. Gruden sets up as his perfect foil, as his teams are just 21-35 (37%) ATS after a straight-up win.

I like the spread at Patriots -6 or better and the total down to 46.

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Giants +3.5 vs. 49ers, Under 43

Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET | TV: CBS

It would be an understatement to say the 49ers are beat up right now.

Starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo (ankle), No. 1 target George Kittle (knee), and their top-two running backs in Raheem Mostert (knee) and Tevin Coleman (knee) are all out. And their No. 1 wide receiver Deebo Samuel (foot) is still on Injured Reserve.

This 49ers offense could look like it would in the fourth quarter of a preseason game.

Not to mention the Giants will be without their top offensive player in running back Saquon Barkley, who tore his ACL against Chicago and is done for the season.

Low-scoring games tend to favor the underdog because it’s harder for the favorite to separate on the scoreboard. And although the Giants lost Barkley, the 49ers lost a player just as impactful on defense in Nick Bosa, who also suffered a season-ending ACL tear this past Sunday.

That’s not enough to drive this game to a high-scoring expectation, but it’s certainly enough to give the Giants a good shot at keeping a toss-up game between two banged-up teams within a field goal, especially with San Francisco playing its second straight game across the country — on turf that its (remaining few healthy) players now want no part of.

This is a prime letdown spot for San Francisco: According to our Bet Labs data, the 49ers are 1-8 (11.1%) ATS under Shanahan as a favorite coming off an ATS win.

I bet the Giants at +4.5 and the under at 42, but I like the Giants down to +3.5 and the under down to 41.

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Cowboys +4.5 at Seahawks

Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET | TV: FOX

I love the Seahawks' upside this season and have backed them in each of the first two weeks, but this is a smart spot to fade them.

They've been overachieving while the Cowboys haven't played their best ball, yet have lost by three points and won by one. And if the Seahawks don't make that goal-line stand on the final play last week, this spread would likely be closer to -3, which is what I make it.

This is the classic type of situation in which bettors tend to overrate Seattle and overlook Dallas. Dating back to 2015, Seattle has covered in just 2-of-8 games at The Link when on the second leg of back-to-back home games, according to our Bet Labs data. And since 2017, they're 7-12-1  (37%) against the spread as a home favorite, winning by six or more points just 30% of the time.

Dak Prescott, meanwhile, has led the Cowboys to a 12-5 (71%) ATS record as an underdog of more than one point

Especially with glaring issues in pass defense, the Seahawks don't often post huge margins of victory. They're 13-5 over the 18 regular-season games they've played since the start of last season but only 7-of-18 (38.8%) have resulted in wins by six or more points.

I would play the Cowboys down to +3.5.

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Broncos Under 19.5 Points (-125) vs. Bucs

Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET | TV: CBS

The Bucs defense doesn’t get talked about enough, and I don’t see how a Jeff Driskel-led offense gets 20 points. The Bucs’ front-seven is as good as any in the league with Vita Vea, Ndamukong Suh, and Vernon Gholston clogging the interior, Jason Pierre-Paul and Shaq Barrett flying off the edge, and Lavonte David and Devin White patrolling the second level. Every single one of them except Barrett is a former high first-round draft pick, first-team All-Pro, or both, but Barrett led the league with 19.5 sacks last season.

Their young secondary features three young, talented corners in Jamel Dean, Carlton Davis, Sean Murphy-Bunting, who each finished with a Pro Football Focus grade in the 60th percentile or better last season. The early returns are promising for second-round safety Antoine Winfield, who ranks No. 3 of 77 safeties through two weeks.

It’s almost impossible to run on the Bucs: They led the NFL in fewest yards per carry allowed last season (3.3) and lead again this season with an even better mark (2.9). That leaves it up to Driskel and the passing game, and he averages a lowly 4.95 net yards per drop back in his career. Both teams also rank 20th or below in situation-neutral pace.

Driskel-led offenses have topped 18 points in only 37.5% of his career starts, while the Broncos have only managed to score more than even 16 points in only 44.4% of games since Vic Fangio became the head coach. Without Drew Lock, that figure drops to 36.3%. I would bet this down to 19.5 (-135).

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