Rams vs. 49ers Odds, Predictions, NFL Picks: Is There Betting Value On Monday Night Football Spread?
Getty Images. Pictured: 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo, Rams QB Matthew Stafford, Rams DT Aaron Donald
- The spread for 49ers-Rams remains steadfast at L.A. -3.5 where it opened this week — but is there value in that line?
- Our expert breaks down his prediction for the Week 10 edition of Monday Night Football, as well as if he'd play the spread here.
|Time||8:15 p.m. ET|
Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers have won each of the past four meetings with Sean McVay’s Rams — three of which they were underdogs.
Can San Francisco pull off the upset once again? Let’s take a closer look.
Click the arrow to expand injury reports
Rams vs. 49ers Injury Report
- WR Robert Woods (ACL): Out
- WR Ben Skowronek (thigh): Questionable
- C Brian Allen (elbow): Questionable
- LB Von Miller (ankle): Questionable
- CB Dont’e Deayon (thigh): Questionable
- CB Darious Williams (ankle): Questionable
- RB JaMycal Hasty (ankle): Out
- WR Mohamed Sanu Sr. (knee): Out
- DT Maurice Hurst (calf): Out
- CB Dre Kirkpatrick (ankle): Out
- S Tavon Wilson (foot): Out
- DE Arden Key (oblique): Questionable
- CB Josh Norman (ribs): Questionable
- S Jimmie Ward (quad): Questionable
Rams vs. 49ers Matchup
|Rams Offense||DVOA Rank||49ers Defense|
|Rams Defense||DVOA Rank||49ers Offense|
|Football Outsiders’ DVOA measures efficiency by comparing a team’s success on every play to the league average based on situation and opponent.|
The Key To A Rams Cover
In an unfortunate twist, the Rams acquired Odell Beckham Jr. just in time, as Robert Woods tore his ACL in practice this past Friday and is out for the season.
By DVOA, the Rams pass offense (third) compared to the 49ers pass defense (25th) is the biggest mismatch of this game. However, Beckham can’t be expected to be a one-for-one replacement for Woods without knowing the full playbook after arriving midweek, so the task has gotten a bit easier for the 49ers defense.
Matthew Stafford should still be able to move his team down the field through the air, however, as the 49ers are ranked 29th in deep passing DVOA. Stafford is ranked third in both yards per attempt (8.6) and yards per completion (12.7) this season. His aggressiveness will be key, as San Francisco’s secondary has committed a whopping 19 penalties.
This game will likely fall on Stafford, as Darrell Henderson has run the ball relatively well at 4.6 yards per carry but doesn’t figure to be a game breaker against a 49ers defense that’s ranked sixth in DVOA against the run.
The Biggest Hurdle To A 49ers Cover
The issue for the 49ers is at right tackle, where starter Mike McGlinchey tore his quad last week and was placed on IR. In his place will be some combination of Jaylon Moore, Tom Compton and/or starting right guard Daniel Brunskill, who could slide over.
McGlinchey earned above-average grades from PFF in both pass- and run-blocking this season, but the same can’t be said for any of his potential replacements.
The 49ers already had to worry about double-teaming Aaron Donald on the interior, but now they’ll also have to give their right tackle help against the likes of Leonard Floyd and Von Miller in pass protection. The Rams lead the league in sacks, and Jimmy Garoppolo’s 27.3 passing grade under pressure ranks last of 35 qualified quarterbacks at PFF.
In theory, the Rams are due for some regression in the sack department, as they rank just 27th in pressure rate (22.5% per Pro Football Reference Advanced Stats). But after adding Miller and now facing a 49ers line with a gaping hole at right tackle, it’s more likely that the Rams’ pressure rate moves closer to their sack rate.
Although the 49ers quietly have one of the better passing offenses in the NFL — thanks is large part to wide receiver Deebo Samuel , who is second in the NFL with 110.3 receiving yards per game — they would be best served running the ball against a Rams defense that’s often willing to concede the run, hence their middling 14th-place ranking in DVOA against the run despite ranking fourth in defensive DVOA overall.
Sixth-round rookie Elijah Mitchell has been a revelation for the 49ers, averaging 78.2 rushing yards per game and 5.3 yards per carry.
NFL Pick: Rams vs. 49ers
As of the writing, 75% of bets are on the Rams but 54% of the money is on the 49ers, and we’ve tracked a number of sharp moves on San Francisco (visit our NFL PRO Report for now). In regard to the total, the under is getting 69% of the bets but only 59% of the money, and we’ve tracked sharp action on the over.
With that said, I can’t confidently recommend a play on this game, as I make this line Rams -4 with a total of 49.
If the Rams had taken care of business against the Titans last week, we would have gotten a bigger spread and bet on a letdown spot for the Rams while backing Shanahan as an underdog, where he is 23-17 (58%) against the spread (ATS) in his career. However, now this Rams team will be hungry and focused, and you don’t want to bet against McVay in this spot, as his teams are 9-2 (82%) ATS on the road coming off a loss.
Yes, McVay has been owned by Shanahan these last two years, but that was with Jared Goff at quarterback. Plus, the four straight losses will only add to the Rams’ motivation.
There’s also the issue of the 49ers’ home-field advantage — or lack thereof. The 49ers are 0-4 at Levi’s Stadium this season, losing three of the four by at least seven points. Whatever home-field edge they do have is further diminished by the short distance the interstate visiting Rams have to travel.
If the 49ers can eliminate backbreaking penalties and not let the Rams’ front seven game-wreck the right side of its line, San Francisco has a chance to cover and/or pull off the upset, but that’s too big of an “if” for me.
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