Best Vikings-Bears SNF Player Props: Kirk Cousins Over/Under 285.5 Passing Yards?
Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kirk Cousins
- There are two props offering value for Sunday Night Football's Minnesota Vikings-Chicago Bears matchup (8:20 p.m. ET).
- Cort Smith digs into two: The over/under on Kirk Cousins' passing yards and Trey Burton's receiving yards.
Sunday Night Football features a fascinating affair between the Vikings and Bears, teams that respectively rank fourth- and fifth-best in the league in total yards allowed to opponents.
Both can stop the run and the pass, and each feature fully-functional offenses with the Bears averaging 29.9 points per game (fifth best) and the Vikings averaging 24.6 (15th).
It all adds up to a tricky game to handicap, especially with star running back Dalvin Cook rounding back to full health. Still, our Players Props Tool reveal a few values for this one.
Before we get into that, here are our records on the year. Be sure to check out more props at Bet the Prop.
- Props Tool Bet Quality 10 Record: 183-87 (66%)
- Article picks: 28-14 (64%)
- Bet the Prop Overall Record: 204-157 (57%)
Vikings QB Kirk Cousins
Under 285.5 Passing Yards (+105)
This yardage number from 5Dimes is not only lower at BetOnline (280.5 yards), but the odds are considerably worse (-114). That makes the 5Dimes line with a better number at a plus price look like a screaming value.
The Bears haven’t allowed a single passer to hit 280 yards at home this season, with Tom Brady’s 277 yards in Week 7 setting the high-water mark. They’ve held every other road quarterback — including Matthew Stafford, Russell Wilson, and a combination of Ryan Fitzpatrick and Jameis Winston — to 274 or fewer yards. In total, opposing QBs average 200.2 passing yards at Soldier Field.
Betting the under on passing yards against Chicago, regardless of location, would have netted you a 5-2 record this season.
As for Cousins, he’s passed for 241 or fewer yards in three of his past four games, with the only over coming against the Saints, who give up the second-most passing yards in the league.
Sean Koerner projects Cousins at 279 yards, placing this prop in the value category. I’m surprised we’re getting plus odds here, and I’d still play this prop down the regular take of -115.
Bears TE Trey Burton
Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-114 @ BetOnline)
With shutdown corner Xavier Rhodes and a run defense that gives up the seventh-fewest yards in the league, the Vikings don’t have many weaknesses. But defending tight ends might be one.
- The Vikings have allowed 59.8 receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends, the 12th-most in the league.
- Zach Ertz (110 yards), Jimmy Graham (95), George Kittle (90), Ricky Seals-Jones (69) and Chris Herndon (42) have all eclipsed 40.5 receiving yards against Minnesota.
- Tight ends facing the Vikings have gone 3-2 on the over on receiving yards, surpassing the line by an average of 47 yards when they do.
In an offense that likes to spread it around, Burton’s production has been spotty, but he and Tarik Cohen might be their best bets at moving the ball. Burton has also been much more effective at home, averaging 4.4 receptions and 58 yards at Soldier Field compared to 2.8 catches and 30 yards on the road.
With a projection of 42.5 yards, the value here is already a little thin. I wouldn’t be willing to play the line any lower.