Best Vikings-Packers SNF Prop Bets: Aaron Jones Over/Under 2.5 Receptions?
Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Aaron Jones
- There are two props offering value for Sunday Night Football's Minnesota Vikings-Green Bay Packers matchup (8:20 p.m. ET).
- Cort Smith digs into two: The over/under on Aaron Jones' and Stefon Diggs' reception total.
The Vikings are fighting for their playoff lives as they return home for a second straight appearance on Sunday Night Football.
Unlike last week’s relatively slow affair against the Bears, this one should have plenty of pace, and most prop lines have been set suitably high for a game with the week’s second-highest over/under.
Let’s keep this train rolling with three more player props after a nice 2-1 showing on the Thanksgiving slate.
- Props Tool Bet Quality 10 Record: 190-89 (66%)
- Article picks: 33-17 (66%)
- Bet the Prop Overall Record: 218-166 (57%)
Packers RB Aaron Jones
Over 2.5 Receptions (-155)
We’re paying a pretty price for this prop, but I’m fine with it considering Jones’ growing role in the Packers passing game.
His target totals have increased in each of the past five weeks, topping out at six (for five receptions) against the Seahawks last week. Those numbers, along with his 63 receiving yards, were all career highs for the second-year back.
With wide receiver Randall Cobb (hamstring) once again questionable, the Packers have little pass-catching talent after Davante Adams.
Using Jones as a receiver would make a lot sense against a Vikings unit allowing the 10th-most receiving yards but just the fifth-fewest rushing yards to opposing backfields. He wasn’t active when these teams first played in Week 2, but former starter Jamaal Williams did have three catches on four receptions in that game.
If you’d like a slightly better price, there is a line of 3 receptions at -135. Both are fine, but I wouldn’t want to pay any more vig on either number.
Vikings WR Stefon Diggs
Over 6.5 Receptions (-140)
Coming off a monster 18-target, 13-reception game against the Bears, Diggs has simply been one of the busiest wide receivers in the league.
His 71 receptions are tied for fourth in the league, while his 103 targets are sixth, even though he missed one game to injury.
- Diggs is averaging 7.9 receptions per game.
- In his past three games, he’s effectively been the No. 1 receiver, out-targeting Adam Thielen 43-28 and out-catching him 31-22.
The 24-year-old had his best game of the year when the Vikings played the Packers in Week 2, turning 13 targets into 9 receptions, 128 yards and two touchdowns.
I’d play this number to 7.0 receptions, but I wouldn’t be willing to pay any more juice than we already are.