NFL Playoff Picture: Ranking Every Team’s Postseason Chances After Week 11

NFL Playoff Picture: Ranking Every Team’s Postseason Chances After Week 11 article feature image
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Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jimmy Garoppolo

  • How is the NFL playoff picture taking shape after Week 11?
  • We highlight the current standings as well as rank all 32 teams' chances according to our model.

At 9-1, one would think it’d be safe to assume the San Francisco 49ers have the best chance of any NFC team to win the Super Bowl, but that’s not the case.

A big part of the reason? Their strength of schedule. According to our Bet Labs model — which simulates the rest of the NFL season 10,000 times — the 49ers have the league’s most difficult remaining schedule. But you don’t even need the model’s rating to understand how difficult their final stretch will be. Just look at it:

  • Week 12: vs. Packers
  • Week 13: at Ravens
  • Week 14: at Saints
  • Week 15: vs. Falcons
  • Week 16: vs. Rams
  • Week 17: at Seahawks

As a result, our model gives the 49ers only the conference’s second-best chance of hoisting the Lombardi Trophy at 13%, behind the New Orleans Saints at 15.77%.

The grueling stretch will start this next week, when the 49ers host the Green Bay Packers on Sunday Night Football in a game that could have big implications for the NFC’s seeding.

Meanwhile, in the AFC, the Houston Texans have been demoted to the current projected 6-seed thanks to their loss to the Baltimore Ravens combined with the Indianapolis Colts’ win over the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Now let’s rank the playoff odds for all 32 teams as well as take a look at their various postseason chances, but before we dig in, we’ll take a quick look at the current playoff standings.

Note: You can sift through every team’s chances to secure specific playoff seeding and much more in the table at the very end of this story.


Current NFL Playoff Picture & Standings

AFC Playoff Picture & Standings

  1. New England Patriots (9-1)
  2. Baltimore Ravens (8-2)
  3. Kansas City Chiefs (7-4)
  4. Indianapolis Colts (6-4)
  5. Buffalo Bills (7-3)
  6. Houston Texans (6-4)

NFC Playoff Picture & Standings

  1. San Francisco 49ers (9-1)
  2. Green Bay Packers (8-2)
  3. New Orleans Saints (8-2)
  4. Dallas Cowboys (6-4)
  5. Seattle Seahawks (8-2)
  6. Minnesota Vikings (8-3)

NFL Playoff Rankings & Projections

1. New England Patriots

  • Chance to make playoffs: 100.00%
  • Chance to win division: 99.34%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 28.72%

The Patriots escaped Philly to improve to 9-1. Our model still gives Tom Brady and Co. the best chance to secure the AFC’s 1-seed at 78.97%.

2. Baltimore Ravens

  • Chance to make playoffs: 99.29%
  • Chance to win division: 97.45%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 14.92%

One of the most highly-anticipated matchups of Week 11 turned into a drubbing with Lamar Jackson and the Ravens trouncing Deshaun Watson and the Texans, 41-7.

3. New Orleans Saints

  • Chance to make playoffs: 98.10%
  • Chance to win division: 97.36%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 15.77%

Our model gives the Saints the best chance of any NFC team to win the Super Bowl (15.77%) heading into Week 12.

4. San Francisco 49ers

  • Chance to make playoffs: 95.95%
  • Chance to win division: 68.55%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 13.00%

Like we covered earlier, the 49ers have only the second-best chance of winning the Big Game among NFC teams.

5. Green Bay Packers

  • Chance to make playoffs: 92.85%
  • Chance to win division: 68.65%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 6.18%

The Packers will travel to Santa Clara for Sunday Night Football against the 49ers in a showdown that could have big implications for seeding atop the NFC.

6. Kansas City Chiefs

  • Chance to make playoffs: 91.09%
  • Chance to win division: 86.94%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 4.38%

The Chiefs sealed their Monday Night Football win in Mexico City thanks to a game-sealing interception thrown by Philip Rivers, though are down to a 12.45% chance of securing a first-round bye.

7. Minnesota Vikings

  • Chance to make playoffs: 85.37%
  • Chance to win division: 31.21%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 4.57%

The Vikings pulled off a rare 20-point comeback to beat Denver. At 8-3, our projections still give them a 31.21% chance to win the NFC North.

8. Seattle Seahawks

  • Chance to make playoffs: 81.53%
  • Chance to win division: 28.31%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 2.63%

The Seahawks will return from bye with their big overtime win over the 49ers in the rearview mirror. But like SF, Seattle faces a difficult schedule over the final stretch — third-most challenging according to our model.

9. Buffalo Bills

  • Chance to make playoffs: 72.40%
  • Chance to win division: 0.66%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.55%

The Bills easily covered as touchdown favorites with a 37-20 rout of Miami, holding onto their standing as the current 5-seed.

10. Dallas Cowboys

  • Chance to make playoffs: 71.04%
  • Chance to win division: 69.29%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 3.44%

The Cowboys head to New England for a Sunday afternoon showdown against the Patriots, starting what our model projects to be the seventh-most difficult remaining schedule.

raiders-vs-texans-betting-odds-picks-week-8-2019
Thomas B. Shea-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Deshaun Watson.

11. Houston Texans

  • Chance to make playoffs: 70.58%
  • Chance to win division: 45.60%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 1.40%

Houston’s loss combined with Indy’s win hurts the Texans’ chances of winning the AFC South, which are down to 45.60%.

12. Indianapolis Colts

  • Chance to make playoffs: 59.04%
  • Chance to win division: 46.15%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 1.20%

The Colts actually have a marginally better chance of winning the division at 46.15%, so Thursday night’s matchup between the rivals will have big consequences for the loser.

13. Oakland Raiders

  • Chance to make playoffs: 36.22%
  • Chance to win division: 12.44%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.13%

The Raiders are winners of three straight and find themselves right on the edge of the playoff bubble at No. 7 in the AFC race.

14. Philadelphia Eagles

  • Chance to make playoffs: 35.96%
  • Chance to win division: 30.66%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.88%

Thanks to Dallas’ seventh-most difficult schedule and Philly’s second-easiest schedule, the Eagles still have a decent chance to win the NFC East at 30.66%.

15. Los Angeles Rams

  • Chance to make playoffs: 33.42%
  • Chance to win division: 3.14%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 1.63%

Overall struggles aside, the Rams continue to be one of the most profitable teams to back with a 7-3 record against the spread (tied for second-best).

16. Pittsburgh Steelers

  • Chance to make playoffs: 31.30%
  • Chance to win division: 1.59%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.30%

Lost in the fallout of last Thursday’s Steelers-Browns drama was how Pittsburgh’s loss impacted the AFC wild-card race. Mike Tomlin’s squad fell out of the playoff picture and now sits on the bubble at No. 8.

17. Tennessee Titans

  • Chance to make playoffs: 18.24%
  • Chance to win division: 7.67%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.08%

The Titans will return from bye with their big win over the Chiefs in the rearview and an outside chance at winning the AFC South in front of them, starting with a home date against the Jaguars.

18. Cleveland Browns

  • Chance to make playoffs: 15.86%
  • Chance to win division: 0.96%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.09%

Last Thursday’s win initially almost doubled the Browns’ chances of making the playoffs, but once the rest of the week played out, those fell back down to 15.86%.

19. Carolina Panthers

  • Chance to make playoffs: 4.50%
  • Chance to win division: 2.63%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.08%

The Panthers fell victim to another upset by Atlanta, and their playoff chances took a big hit as a result, falling from 18.53% before Week 11 to 4.50% after.

20. Jacksonville Jaguars

  • Chance to make playoffs: 2.82%
  • Chance to win division: 0.58%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.01%

The Jaguars’ postseason hopes continue to dwindle from week-to-week, hitting a season low of 2.82%.

21. Los Angeles Chargers

  • Chance to make playoffs: 2.26%
  • Chance to win division: 0.50%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.03%

Philip Rivers threw four interception in Monday night’s critical loss to Kansas City. Our model gave the Chargers a 11.45% chance of making the postseason heading into Week 11, which is down to 2.26%.

22. Chicago Bears

  • Chance to make playoffs: 0.90%
  • Chance to win division: 0.13%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.01%

It has been a tough comedown year for the 2018 NFC North champs, with Mitchell Trubisky continuing to struggle. The Bears now have a 31.59% chance at securing a top-10 pick in the 2020 draft.

23. Denver Broncos

  • Chance to make playoffs: 0.55%
  • Chance to win division: 0.12%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.00%

The Broncos steamrolled the Vikings, 20-0, in the first half of last Sunday’s game only to let Kirk Cousins and Co. mount a comeback win.

24. New York Jets

  • Chance to make playoffs: 0.35%
  • Chance to win division: 0.00%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.00%

The Jets are winners are two straight — vs. Giants and at Washington — hurting their draft chances in the process: They had a 6.3 average draft position in our sims right before those two wins, which is now down to 8.3.

25. Detroit Lions

  • Chance to make playoffs: 0.23%
  • Chance to win division: 0.01%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.00%

The Lions are now losers of three straight — two of which have been without Matthew Stafford.

T-26. Atlanta Falcons

  • Chance to make playoffs: 0.05%
  • Chance to win division: 0.01%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.00%

The Falcons are coming off back-to-back road wins, upsetting two divisional opponents in the Saints then Panthers. But improving from 1-7 to 3-7 doesn’t do much for Atlanta.

T-26. New York Giants

  • Chance to make playoffs: 0.05%
  • Chance to win division: 0.05%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.00%

The Giants now have a 66.10% chance to secure a top-five pick in the 2020 draft.

T-26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  • Chance to make playoffs: 0.05%
  • Chance to win division: 0.00%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.00%

The Buccaneers have a decent chance at landing a top-10 pick in the spring at 65.78%.

T-29. Arizona Cardinals

  • Chance to make playoffs: 0.00%
  • Chance to win division: 0.00%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.00%

The 3-7-1 Cardinals have the second-hardest schedule according to our model, which is why we project them to finish with only 4.82 average wins.

T-29. Cincinnati Bengals

  • Chance to make playoffs: 0.00%
  • Chance to win division: 0.00%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.00%

The Bengals officially fell to 0-10 and are up to a 58.30% chance of finishing with the No. 1 overall pick in 2020.

T-29. Miami Dolphins

  • Chance to make playoffs: 0.00%
  • Chance to win division: 0.00%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.00%

The Dolphins’ two-win streak ended, marginally improving their average draft position from 3.6 to 3.3.

T-29. Washington Redskins

  • Chance to make playoffs: 0.00%
  • Chance to win division: 0.00%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.00%

The Redskins’ loss to the Jets now gives Washington a season-high 27% chance of landing the top pick in the draft.


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