- Using The Action Network's NFL Power Ratings, we look at the teams the public are overrating and underrating in Week 2.
- Comparing our power ratings to current point spreads shows the Rams have biggest difference in the perception of the betting market to real value.
Week 1 is officially in the books and there’s little time to catch your breath with Week 2 action kicking off Thursday. Lines have been available for only a few days, but there has already been some significant movement.
By comparing projected point spreads using The Action Network’s NFL Power Rankings to the consensus number, we can determine which teams the public is overrating and underrating in Week 2.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Arizona Cardinals
- NFL Power Rating spread: Rams -9.7
- Current Spread: Rams -12
- Day/Time: Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET
The last thing bettors saw in Week 1 was the Rams outscoring the Raiders 23-0 in the second half on Monday Night Football. This has stuck with gamblers as more than 70% of spread tickets are on Los Angeles in its Week 2 home opener.
However, the Rams have the largest difference between projected spread and actual spread in Week 2.
Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers
- NFL Power Rating spread: Falcons -4.6
- Current Spread: Falcons -5.5
- Day/Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Atlanta lost and failed to cover in its opener while Carolina won and cashed tickets for bettors on Sunday. Yet, somehow the line is moving in the Falcons’ direction.
The most likely cause is injuries. Panthers tight end Greg Olsen broke his foot and will be out an indefinite amount of time. The same can be said for right tackle Daryl Williams, a 2017 second team All-Pro, who will have surgery on the right knee he re-injured in the opener against Dallas.
The Panthers offensive line is certainly a question mark after losing Williams and starting left tackle Matt Kalil a week before the team’s opener.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens
- NFL Power Rating spread: Bengals -2.2
- Current Spread: Pick ’em
- Day/Time: Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET
According to our ratings, Cincy should be nearly a 3-point favorite at home. Instead, the game is currently listed as a pick ’em.
Baltimore looked amazing blowing out Buffalo 47-3 at home in Week 1. It is important, however, not to overreact to one game.
Since 2003, teams that won the previous game by 21 or more points at home have gone 185-239-14 (44%) ATS the following week.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New England Patriots
- NFL Power Rating spread: Jaguars +0.9
- Current Spread: Jaguars +2
- Day/Time: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Let’s not forget, the last time these teams played was in January in the AFC title game. Jacksonville led 20-10 in the fourth quarter but couldn’t hold on.
If the Jags had home-field advantage, like they will on Sunday, the game might have ended differently.