NFL Prop Bet Pick: Which Team Will Finish With the Worst Record?

NFL Prop Bet Pick: Which Team Will Finish With the Worst Record? article feature image
Credit:

Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Washington Redskins quarterback Dwayne Haskins (7).

  • The Bengals (-175), Redskins (+260) and Dolphins (+550) are favorites to finish with the worst record this season.
  • We ran 10,000 simulations of the NFL season to determine which team is a good bet to have the league's worst record.

Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa suffered a dislocated hip in last Saturday’s game against Mississippi State. The injury will end the Heisman hopeful’s season.

Tagovailoa was expected by many to be the first pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. Teams at the bottom of the standings were said to be “Tanking for Tua.” The ‘Bama product should make a full recovery, but the injury could scare teams away.

NFL squads looking for a franchise quarterback have other options if Tua isn’t healthy or decides to return to school for another season. LSU senior quarterback Joe Burrow is climbing draft boards and Ohio State edge rusher Chase Young is considered to be the best non-QB prospect in the draft.

The team with the first pick will have a tough choice to make, but it is a great position considering the talent available. So which team will make the first selection in April’s draft?

The NFL team with the worst record each season earns the top selection. Oddsmakers at FanDuel are offering a prop on which team will finish in the basement of the NFL standings.

  • Bengals -175
  • Redskins +260
  • Dolphins +550
  • Giants +1100
  • Jets +3300
  • Falcons +9000
  • Cardinals +10000
  • Browns +10000
  • Broncos +10000

The betting odds mirror the current NFL standings. Cincinnati (0-10) has the worst record in the NFL and is the league’s only winless team. Washington is 1-9 while Miami and the New York Giants are 2-8.

To determine which of these floundering teams offers bettors value, we ran 10,000 simulations of the 2019 NFL season using player and team statistics adjusted for strength of schedule to determine the projected records for each team.

Based on our model, here is the projected chance for each team to finish with the worst record:

The simulations and the oddsmakers agree that the Bengals have the best odds of finishing with the worst record. Zac Taylor benched Andy Dalton two weeks ago and rookie Ryan Finley (58% completion, 1 TD, 2 INTs) Has underwhelmed in his starts.

However, at -175 odds, bet $175 to win $100, the implied probability of Cincinnati having the worst record is 63.6%. Our model gives the Bengals a 58.3% chance, which means there is no value betting the favorites.

The best bet is taking a flyer on the Redskins at +260. Washington took Dwayne Haskins with the 15th pick in last year’s draft and the rookie quarterback has been disappointing.

In four starts, the former Ohio State quarterback has completed 58.2% of his passes with two touchdowns and five interceptions. The ‘Skins’ offense ranks 31st in DVOA.

When you compare Cincy and Washington via DVOA, the Bengals have been the better team this season despite having a worse record. Taylor’s team has a clear advantage over the Redskins as it ranks No. 1 in special team’s DVOA.

That might not sound like much of an edge, but it could be the difference in the Bengals winning one or two games down the stretch.

The Redskins are bad and for this bet, that’s good. Oddsmakers are undervaluing Washington’s chance of finishing with the worst record.