Best Patriots-Bills MNF Player Props: LeSean McCoy Over/Under 55.5 Rushing Yards?

Credit:

Timothy T. Ludwig-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: LeSean McCoy

Oct 29, 2018, 07:06 PM EDT

There are two props offering betting value in the Monday Night Football game between the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills (8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN).
This piece will analyze the following prop bets: Bills RB LeSean McCoy over/under 55.5 rushing yards and Bills QB Derek Anderson over/under 1.5 passing touchdowns.

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There are two NFL player prop bets offering value in the New England Patriots-Buffalo Bills matchup on Monday Night Football, which kicks off at 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN.

All odds as of 1:30 p.m. ET on Monday.

Bills RB LeSean McCoy

The pick: Under 55.5 rushing yards (-115 @ 5Dimes)

Our props tool is littered with McCoy under bets tonight: receiving yards, rushing yards and receptions.

If you aren’t blindly firing at all of them, it probably makes the most sense to short the rushing side of McCoy’s production, as the Patriots have allowed the fifth-most receptions (6.71) and fourth-most yards (60.29) per game to the running back position.

There’s an argument in favor of the over here, as well. The Patriots rank 24th in yards per carry allowed (4.45), but game script will always be the tiebreaker for me in these situations.

Shady has registered only 40.7 rush yards per game this year, and the Bills are massive 13.5-point underdogs. If things get out of hand early, it’s certainly within the range of possibilities that McCoy’s volume on the ground is limited as the Bills attempt to come from behind.

Bills QB Derek Anderson

The pick: Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (-200 @ 5Dimes)

The Bills offense has only three passing touchdowns on the entire season — which is incredibly pathetic — so even with the juice as high as it is, the under is still the play here.

Buffalo’s offensive line is currently fourth-worst in adjusted sack rate (Football Outsiders), so even the Patriots’ pathetic pass rush (28th, per Pro Football Focus) could get to Anderson in this one.

Anderson’s touchdown expectation is probably even lower, as the only Bills receiver to score a touchdown inside the 10-yard line this year is Kelvin Benjamin, who will likely be shadowed by Stephon Gilmore in PFF’s fifth-worst WR/CB advantage of the entire week.