Best Player Prop Bets: Fading Running Backs in Week 6
Credit: Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Los Angeles Rams cornerback Trumaine Johnson (22) tries to bring down Houston Texans running back Lamar Miller (26) during the first half at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum.
- There are five props offering betting value on Sunday's main slate.
- Texans RB Lamar Miller returns to the lineup, but doesn't have a favorable matchup vs. the Bills.
They say running backs don’t matter, and we’re betting on that with the player prop betting card we’ve got teed up for Week 6.
Several running backs popped to the top of the Props Tool this week, and I recommend keeping a close eye on it throughout the weekend as more prop lines are released.
We’re going to offer up one head-to-head bet in addition to several yardage lines, but you can find more of our best head-to-head props for Week 6 over at Bet the Prop.
You can also follow us on Twitter as we fire up more bets all Sunday morning.
Here are the overall records through Week 5:
Props Tool Bet Quality 10 Record: 107-58 (63%)
Main Slate Article Record: 4-1 (80%)
Bet the Prop Record: 123-93 (57%)
Texans RB Lamar Miller
Under 60.5 Yards Rushing
Between battling a chest injury and a backup in Alfred Blue, who had 20 carries in Week 5, Lamar Miller may find himself in something of a time-share this Sunday against the Bills.
After chewing up bottom-10 run defenses in New England and Tennessee in the first two weeks, Miller had totals of 10 and 49 yards over the subsequent two weeks.
The Bills are solid against the run, yielding the 12th-fewest yards and the 10th-fewest against opposing rushers, but this is more of a bet on diminished volume for a banged-up Miller.
With a projection of 48.1 yards this is one of the best bets on the board according to the Props Tool, which gives it a Bet Quality of 10.
I would play this number down to about 53.5 yards and would pay the juice up to -130 at 60.5 yards.
Tyler Boyd > Corey Davis, Receiving Yards
The rich get richer, and that’s bad news for Corey Davis.
He’ll face off against an already-elite Ravens pass defense that’s been bolstered by the return of top corner Jimmy Smith. Despite having Smith for just one game so far:
- The Ravens have allowed the sixth-fewest raw yards to wide receivers, while leading the league in yards per target.
- They’ve held fellow outside receivers A.J. Green, Demaryius Thomas, and Antonio Brown to receiving lines of 69, 63, and 63 respectively.
Other than the one blow-up game against the Eagles, Davis has been held to 55 yards or less in three of the last four weeks.
Boyd is in a good spot against a Steelers’ defense giving up the second-most yards per game to wide receivers, and Sean Koerner’s rankings concur, giving Boyd the 68 to 65 yardage edge.
If the odds move, this bet stops looking like a value at about -130.
Buccaneers RB Peyton Barber
Under 46.5 Rushing
We’re over leveraged on fading Barber this week, playing him in several head-to-head props as well, but this number is too valuable to ignore.
While Barber’s match up against Atlanta looks good on paper, his carries have decreased in every week, bottoming out at seven in Week 4.
Not only will Tampa Bay need to pass to keep up with the Falcons on their home track, but Barber now has second-round rookie Ronald Jones breathing down his neck.
This is another wager with a perfect 10 rating in the Props Tool.
I would still play the under if this line moved as high as 41.5. At the number we’re being given, I’d pay juice as high as -140.
Bengals TE C.J. Uzomah
Over 27.5 Receiving
Uzomah is the last man standing at tight end now that Tyler Kroft has been ruled out for this week.
Coming off a 43-yard outing, he faces a Steelers team getting rocked by the position, surrendering notable lines of 109 yards to Travis Kelce, 77 to Austin Hooper, and 72 to O.J. Howard.
Our projections have him at 34.7 yards, and I’d be willing to play this number to 30.5.
Panthers RB Christian McCaffrey
Over 5 Receptions
McCaffrey has five or more catches in three of four games this year after averaging five per game as a rookie.
While Washington has done well to contain the damage done by receiving backs with the eighth-fewest yards yielded, they do allow 6.8 receptions per game to opposing backs.
With a projection of 5.7 receptions in the Props Tool, this bet has an 8 Rating. If the number moved to 5.5, it would be a no play for me, and I also would not be willing to pay more juice than we already are.