EDGE

Best Player Prop Bets: Fading Running Backs in Week 6

Oct 14, 2018 10:14 AM EDT
  • There are five props offering betting value on Sunday's main slate.
  • Texans RB Lamar Miller returns to the lineup, but doesn't have a favorable matchup vs. the Bills.

They say running backs don’t matter, and we’re betting on that with the player prop betting card we’ve got teed up for Week 6.

Several running backs popped to the top of the Props Tool this week, and I recommend keeping a close eye on it throughout the weekend as more prop lines are released.

We’re going to offer up one head-to-head bet in addition to several yardage lines, but you can find more of our best head-to-head props for Week 6 over at Bet the Prop.

You can also follow us on Twitter as we fire up more bets all Sunday morning.

Here are the overall records through Week 5:

Props Tool Bet Quality 10 Record: 107-58 (63%)

Main Slate Article Record: 4-1 (80%)

Bet the Prop Record: 123-93 (57%)


Texans RB Lamar Miller

Under 60.5 Yards Rushing (-115 @ Sportsbook.com)

Between battling a chest injury and a backup in Alfred Blue, who had 20 carries in Week 5, Lamar Miller may find himself in something of a time-share  this Sunday against the Bills.

After chewing up bottom-10 run defenses in New England and Tennessee in the first two weeks, Miller had totals of 10 and 49 yards over the subsequent two weeks.

The Bills are solid against the run, yielding the 12th-fewest yards and the 10th-fewest against opposing rushers, but this is more of a bet on diminished volume for a banged-up Miller.

With a projection of 48.1 yards this is one of the best bets on the board according to the Props Tool, which gives it a Bet Quality of 10.

I would play this number down to about 53.5 yards and would pay the juice up to -130 at 60.5 yards. 

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Credit:

Credit: Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Los Angeles Rams cornerback Trumaine Johnson (22) tries to bring down Houston Texans running back Lamar Miller (26) during the first half at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum.

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SCHEDULE
OPEN
CURR
# BETS
ATL
NYG
-4.5
54
-4
54
WAS
DAL
-1
42
+1
41.5
CHI
NE
+2.5
50
+3
48.5
TB
CLE
-3
49.5
-3.5
51.5
JAC
HOU
-3.5
44
-4
41
NYJ
MIN
+3
47
+3.5
46
SF
LA
+10.5
53
+9.5
52
IND
BUF
-7
42.5
-7
43
LAC
TEN
-7
45.5
-6.5
45
ARI
DEN
+1
41
+1
42
MIA
DET
+2.5
47
+3
46.5
KC
CIN
-6
58.5
-6
58.5
PHI
CAR
-4.5
45
-5
44.5
BAL
NO
-2.5
51
-3
49.5