Best Week 5 NFL Prop Bets: Sterling Shepard’s Smash Spot

Best Week 5 NFL Prop Bets: Sterling Shepard’s Smash Spot article feature image
Credit:

Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: New York Giants wide receiver Sterling Shepard (87) catches a touchdown pass against New Orleans Saints cornerback Ken Crawley (20) during the first quarter at MetLife Stadium.

  • There are six props offering betting value in Sunday's main slate of games.
  • NY Giants wide receiver Sterling Shepard headlines a group of player props with lots of potential without the injured Evan Engram.

The biggest problem with player props bets is that there are so many potential bets to make and just not enough time to make them.

The lines often don’t get released until the day before (or of) the games. That’s about the only downside, though, as player props provide some of the best value you can find in the NFL betting market.

Enter the FantasyLabs Player Prop Tool, which not only provides you with a concise snapshot of all the available bets across multiple books, but also compares them to our player projections, exposing the best values on the board.

Bets with a rating of 10 on the Prop Tool are 82-46 (63%) on the year.

Meanwhile, over at Bet the Prop, we’re 102-69 (68%) between our article picks and Twitter picks.

Let’s dive into the Week 5 slate.

Giants WR Sterling Shepard

The pick: Over 55.5 Receiving Yards (-115 @ 888 Sports)

I’m seeing this number at 68.5 yards where it’s available at other books, so we’re going to attack this way-out-of-line line at 888 instead.

That said, the 68.5 number is solid value. The Giants’ No. 2 WR has soaked up most of the injured Evan Engram’s volume, piling up yardage totals of 80 and 77 over the past two weeks.

Is it possible that odds makers there are unaware that Shepard averages eight receptions for 78.5 yards with Engram out of the lineup and 63.7 yards when Engram plays?

PS: Engram is out again this weekend.

Titans RB Derrick Henry

The pick: Under 60.5 Rushing Yards (-125 @ 888 Sports)

Henry is stuck in a timeshare with Dion Lewis and has yet to hit 60 rushing yards on the year, topping out at 58 in Week 3.

The -5.5 spread in favor of the Titans suggests a good game script for Henry, but his ability to capitalize is questionable:

  • The Bills give up the 12th-fewest rushing yards, averaging 72.3 per game.
  •  Among backs with at least 30 rushes, Henry’s 3.0 yards per carry is the fourth-worst mark in the league.

This line is a little lower at 5 Dimes (55.5 yards), and I’d be comfortable playing it down to that number.

Andy Dalton vs. Case Keenum

The pick: Dalton > Keenum, Passing Yards (-140 @ Betonline)

This comes courtesy of the Build Your Own Bet feature at Betonline.

We’re paying plenty of juice here, but it’s still a nice return on what looks like a major mismatch. Dalton has gone over 350 yards in two straight road games and now heads home to face a Dolphins team that has given up passing lines of 345 to Derek Carr and 334 to Sam Darnold.

Keenum hasn’t eclipsed 250 yards since Week 1 and faces a Jets defense surrendering an average of 269 yards per game.

Vikings WR Adam Thielen

The pick: Thielen Over 90.5 Receiving Yards (-125 @ 888 Sports)

Another line that is much lower at 888 than elsewhere; Betonline has this listed at 105.5.

That number is too high for me, and I would not bet the over at 105.5. However, that 15-yard gap does present a nice middling opportunity (betting the over on 90.5 and the under on 105.5 in an attempt to hit both).

I’m reluctant to chase a number even as big as 90.5, but Thielen is an exception. He’s gone over 100 yards in four straight, averaging 118 per game while ranking second in the league in catches and yards.

The Eagles yield more yards to WRs than every team but four, most notably, a 169-yard outing from Julio Jones and 161 from Corey Davis.

Zach Ertz vs. Travis Kelce

The pick: Ertz > Kelce, Receiving Yards (-115 @ Betonline)

You won’t find me fading Kelce too often, but this is a nightmare spot for him.

The Jaguars play the best pass defense against tight ends by a long shot:

  • They average 25 receiving yards against, 30% lower than the next-closest team.
  • Even elite tight ends are not immune, as Jacksonville has held Evan Engram and Rob Gronkowski to 18 and 15 yards respectively.

Meanwhile, Ertz leads the Eagles in targets since Carson Wentz returned, racking up 14 looks last week alone. Opposing tight ends have fared well against the Vikings — Minnesota ranks 23rd in tight end yards surrendered.

Ravens WR John Brown

The Pick: Over 62.5 Receiving Yards (-116 @ Betonline)

If you’ve followed us at Bet the Prop this season, you know we have an affinity for Brown, who’s made us more money than any other player this season.

He continues to keep a low profile, and that’s just fine with us.

  • The Ravens speedster has more air yards than any other receiver over the past two weeks, 12.5 percent more than the next closest man.
  • He hasn’t dipped below 80 yards in any of his past three games and is averaging 84.5 per outing on the year.

Brown now faces a Cleveland defense that is down starting right cornerback Terrance Mitchell.

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