Ravens vs. Seahawks Odds & Picks: Can Russell Wilson Keep Rolling?

Ravens vs. Seahawks Odds & Picks: Can Russell Wilson Keep Rolling? article feature image

Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Russell Wilson (3).

  • The Seattle Seahawks host the Baltimore Ravens as 3-point home favorites.
  • Our experts analyze the betting odds and make their picks.

Ravens at Seahawks Odds & Picks

  • Odds: Seahawks -3
  • Over/Under: 48.5
  • Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: FOX

Odds as of Thursday evening and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

Russell Wilson has emerged as an MVP frontrunner, yet the 5-1 Seahawks are short home favorites for Sunday’s showdown with the Ravens.

Is Seattle being undervalued?

Our experts break down every angle of this matchup, featuring Sean Koerner’s projected odds and two spread picks.

Ravens-Seahawks Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Both teams are banged up

The Ravens’ biggest injury is Marquise Brown (ankle), who hasn’t been able to practice. Unless he’s able to on Friday, it doesn’t appear likely he’ll suit up. OL Ronnie Staley (knee) is another crucial injury as Pro Football Focus’ No. 4 overall tackle, though he was upgraded to limited on Thursday.

The Seahawks lost Will Dissly (Achilles), but that’s their only skill-position injury. Otherwise, they’re banged up on the offensive and defensive line with DE Quinton Jefferson (oblique) added to the injury report and Ezekiel Ansah (ankle) not practicing. OL Duane Brown (biceps) could be ruled out yet again after missing practice so far this week while OL D.J. Fluker (hamstring) was upgraded to limited practice on Thursday after sitting out on Wednesday.

Seattle is also dealing with injuries to starting safeties Lano Hill (elbow) and Bradley McDougald (back). Both haven’t practiced yet. Justin Bailey

Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.

Biggest Mismatch

Ravens Special Teams vs. Seahawks Special Teams

These teams actually profile pretty similarly.

They’re both above .500 and have benefited from easy schedules and mobile quarterbacks who can make things happen with their legs. They’ve also had issues on defense. However, the one glaring difference is special teams.

It’s obviously a no contest when it comes to kicking as the Ravens feature the most accurate kicker in NFL history in future Hall-of-Famer Justin Tucker. Mr. Automatic is 13-for-13 this season, including a perfect 6-for-6 from beyond 40.

fantasy kicker rankings-week 7-2019
Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Justin Tucker

Jason Myers, meanwhile, is just 5-for-7 (1-for-3 from beyond 40 yards). He’s even missed an extra point. Tucker has missed one over his entire career.

The Ravens should win the field position battle, which could be the difference in a game between two evenly matched teams. Plus they have the much more reliable kicker when a missed field goal could decide this game. Stuckey

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Seahawks -4
  • Projected Total: 48.5

The Seahawks are popping in my Pass/Run Funnel Model with a rating of 0.87 (an in-sample predictive win rate of 65.4%). This lines up with my power ratings.

Wilson is playing like an MVP and the Ravens defense is not good enough to slow him down. They’ve given up 340-plus passing yards to Kyler Murray, Patrick Mahomes and Baker Mayfield while Lamar Jackson has tapered off a bit against better competition. He could be without Brown again, which will hurt.

The Seahawks get Jarran Reed back from a six-game suspension and the timing couldn’t have been better as he’ll give their pass rush an instant boost.

Give me Seattle here. Sean Koerner

Expert Picks

Stuckey: Ravens +3

Wilson is playing at a ridiculous level. He’s had a QB rating above 100 in each of the first six games — a feat only three quarterbacks have reached since the inception of that metric. He’s the well-deserved MVP frontrunner, but it says a lot about the flaws of this Seahawks team that they’ve pulled out four of their five wins by a combined eight points, none of which have come against teams better than .500.

This team could just as easily be 1-5 with a few different bounces of the ball. As a result, I think the Seahawks continue to be overvalued. They have plenty of flaws, especially on defense. They struggle to get pressure; only five teams have fewer than their 10 sacks, and three have played one fewer game. And they have subpar safety play; Tedric Thompson continues to be one of the worst cover safeties.

And now the Seahawks could be without three starting offensive linemen.

If Brown is ruled out, it would leave Germain Ifedi and George Fant as the starting tackles. Of 71 tackles with at least 70 snaps, Ifedi and Fant rank 70th and 71st in Pass Blocking Efficiency. That’s not ideal against a Ravens team that blitzes more than any other. Expect defensive coordinator Don Martindale to bring constant pressure off the edge to get into the backfield and take away the edges from Wilson, where he’s so dangerous in creating big plays.

By the way, Ronnie Stanley and Orlando Brown rank first and 35thin Pass Blocking Efficiency, respectively. That duo, along with star guard Marshal Yanda, lead one of the NFL’s strongest pass-blocking units.

The loss of Dissly will also hurt the Seahawks in the red zone, where they’ve excelled with him as one of Wilson’s favorite targets. He’ll be especially missed as the Ravens have struggled to cover tight ends.

Mark Andrews
Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Mark Andrews

Speaking of tight ends, look for Mark Andrews to have a big day, especially when he ends up in the area of the aforementioned Thompson, whose 39.4 coverage grade is second-worst among 62 safeties (minimum 200 snaps). Per Football Outsiders, Seattle ranks 25th against opposing tight ends.

Another area where these teams mirror each other is in their run-heavy offensive schemes. Both rank inside the top five in run percentage, which could spell trouble for a Seattle team that’s allowing 4.7 yards per rush (25th) against an explosive Baltimore rushing attack that’s averaging an NFL-best 5.5 yards per carry.

Finally, I think many are undervaluing the acquisition of Marcus Peters.

The Ravens have one lockdown corner in Marlon Humphrey. But due to a plethora of injuries, their second corner has been nothing short of a disaster. It’s one of the main reasons their pass defense has been so poor, allowing 7.7 yards per pass (26th). Per Football Outsiders, the Ravens rank second overall vs. No. 1 receivers and 24th vs. No. 2 receivers, so Peters will help sure up that gap immediately.

A common misconception is that Peters can’t play press man — which the Ravens do a ton of — but that’s just not true. He’s an elite press man corner. Look no further than the 2017 season when he was one of the best corners with the Chiefs, who ran Cover 1 more than any team (at almost a 50% frequency) — he had the lowest QB rating allowed of any corner from 2015-17.

I was convinced Peters was never healthy last season, which explained his drop-off in production. And seeing his underlying metrics this season — top 10 in yards per cover snap with two touchdowns and two interceptions — confirms that.

You should see Peters either in press man or Cover 3, where he can use his ballhawks and route-jumping skills to try to create turnovers. He’ll get burnt for the occasional big play, but regardless, he fills one of the Ravens’ biggest needs. Peters, like former Seattle safety Earl Thomas, is also very familiar with the Seahawks, having played in the same division the past two seasons.

I have the Ravens rated a point better than the Seahawks on a neutral field, so I gladly took +3.5 and would take anything at 3 or above.

I also think Baltimore is a worthy teaser piece in what should be one of the week’s most competitive games. Wilson won’t make it easy, but I think the Ravens pull this out on the back of their superior offensive line, special teams and, yes, with the help of Peters.

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