San Antonio Commanders-San Diego Fleet AAF Betting Guide: Navigating Commanders’ QB Rotation

San Antonio Commanders-San Diego Fleet AAF Betting Guide: Navigating Commanders’ QB Rotation article feature image
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Courtesy of @aafcommanders/Twitter. Pictured: San Antonio QB Logan Woodside

Betting Odds: San Antonio Commanders at San Diego Fleet

  • Spread: San Diego -2.5
  • Over/Under: 43.5
  • Time: 8 p.m. ET on Sunday
  • TV: NFL Network

Betting market: The Fleet opened as 1.5-point favorites but have since moved up to -2.5. Meanwhile, this is the only total with no change since open.

Week 2 Takeaways

San Antonio’s 37-29 Loss to Orlando

  • San Antonio blew a 17-point lead in the fourth quarter and failed to take down Orlando at home. The Commanders’ pass rush continues to be a force to be reckoned with, as they lead the league in sacks (11) and rank second in pressure rate (52%).
  • The most surprising development was San Antonio’s new-found quarterback rotation. After the game head coach Mike Riley said, “I do think Logan [Woodside] is our starter … I really like him.” Riley added, “Marquise [Williams] made some plays as you saw … I should have put him back in during the second half for a drive, but I lost track of what was going on there when we should have put him back in. We’ll continue to do that with him.”
  • Mekale McKay (20 targets) and Greg Ward Jr. (13) have separated themselves as the pass game’s top-two options, but Alonzo Moore (10) and De’Marcus Ayers (eight in only Week 2) are also plenty involved. Kenneth Farrow (75 snaps, 27 rushes, 2 targets) has been the lead back ahead of Aaron Green (48 snaps, 12 rushes, 6 targets) and David Cobb (44 snaps, 16 rushes, 2 targets).

San Diego’s 24-12 Win Over Atlanta

  • The Fleet benched opening day starter Mike Bercovici in favor of Philip Nelson, who completed just 14-of-30 passes (47%) for 142 yards (4.7 Y/A) with zero touchdowns and one interception.
  • The Fleet thankfully backed off of their pass-heavy approach from Week 1 and ran the hell out of the ball in Week 2. Both Ja’Quan Gardner (15 carries, 104 yards, 2 TDs) and Terrell Watson (14 carries, 49 yards) were heavily involved. Watson managed to out-snap Gardner 45-to-34.
  • The Fleet (51.4% pressure rate) join the Commanders (52%) and Hotshots (55.4%) as the only teams that have pressured the opposing quarterbacks on more than half of their dropbacks. Defensive end Damontre Moore has been the wrecking ball behind the group’s impressive effort.

Which team is healthier? San Antonio

Commanders starting running back Kenneth Farrow (back) didn’t practice Wednesday. His absence would likely result in David Cobb starting and an enhanced third-down role for Aaron Green. Additionally, backup running back Trey Williams is expected to make his Commanders debut after not being listed on the injury report.

We’ll also have to keep an eye on difference-making linebacker Shaan Washington (ankle) and defensive lineman Matt Godin (head) who were each unable to practice on Wednesday.

San Diego is also banged up, as cornerback Jude Adjei-Barimah (wrist) is out indefinitely. The Fleet’s secondary is in a bad enough place that wide receiver Kameron Kelly was moved to cornerback. Additional injuries include offensive lineman John Montelus (shoulder), linebacker A.J. Tarpley (hip) and free safety Demetrius Wright (thigh), who were all limited in practice Wednesday.

Quarterback Philip Nelson (back) also popped up on the injury report, although he’s fully expected to start considering he practiced in full.

Key matchup: San Antonio front seven vs. San Diego run game

To reiterate: San Antonio just might have the league’s scariest pass rush.

The “Revenge of the Alamo” features edge defenders Washington (team-high three sacks), Tyrone Holmes (team-high 10 pressures) and Jayrone Elliott (two sacks), who have consistently made life difficult for opposing quarterbacks.

Still, the defense’s aggressiveness hasn’t been great for the overall health of the unit. San Antonio ranks eighth in both yards per pass and yards per play allowed. The Commanders “improve” to seventh in yards per carry allowed.

Meanwhile, San Diego has employed the league’s best rushing attack behind Gardner and Watson, who helped the Fleet’s rushing attack convert 16 carries into 99 yards (6.2 yards per carry) against the Commanders back in Week 1.

DFS edge: San Antonio WRs

Backing these receivers didn’t pay off last week, but the San Antonio offense at least continued to demonstrate more fire power than most of the league’s other teams.

Their price tags seem a bit low this week, especially when we consider each wide receivers’ targets per dollar.

  • Mekale McKay ($6,200): No. 1 receiver in targets per dollar
  • Greg Ward ($5,300): No. 3 receiver
  • Alonzo Moore ($5,000): No. 13 receiver

De’Marcus Ayers ($6,000) is also in play considering all eight of his targets came during his season debut in Week 2.

Salt Lake boasts the league’s best defense in fewest yards allowed per carry, but also the AAF’s sixth-worst defense in yards per pass attempt.

Bet to watch: San Antonio +2.5; Under 43.5

I’m sticking with the theory that offenses don’t perform up to expectations in their second meeting with a team and taking the under here.

The Commanders have also been the better team in my opinion, as their defensive woes against Orlando shouldn’t be outweighed by San Diego’s underwhelming Week 2 victory over Atlanta.