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Koerner’s AAF Power Ratings: San Antonio-San Diego Offers Biggest Betting Value

Feb 23, 2019 5:00 PM EST
Credit:

Courtesy of @TheAFF/Twitter. Pictured: San Antonio RB Kenneth Farrow

  • Sean Koerner leverages his AAF Power Ratings to find the best betting values for Week 3.
  • His favorite pick? A side in Sunday's San Antonio Commanders-San Diego Fleet matchup.

With two weeks of the Alliance of American Football league in the books, we have a decent sample size of data to work with.

To identify any potential “value” in Week 3 lines, I created our second set of power ratings for all eight AAF teams. We’ll use those to estimate a line for each matchup and make some picks below.

Here’s what they are as of writing on Wednesday:

AAF WEEK 3 POWER RATINGS

Arizona Hotshots at Salt Lake Stallions

  • Spread: Arizona -4.5
  • Over/Under: 44
  • Time: 3 p.m. ET on Saturday
  • TV: B/R Live

Arizona closed as a massive 16-point road favorite against Memphis last week — roughly eight points higher than what I thought the spread should be. That game came down to the wire as the Hotshots managed to escape with a two-point win. And as a result, I didn’t see the need to adjust their rating down too much as they’re clearly still a top two team in the league.

The Stallions are the best 0-2 team in the league and would have come away with a win at Birmingham last week if it weren’t for a few special teams blunders that were mostly a result of bad luck. They are also likely to get starting quarterback Josh Woodrum back this week, so I expected this line to open at around +3.5 — which it did — but the market has already pushed it up a point.

It could be worth waiting to see if this number drifts further before backing the Stallions. These teams met in Week 1 when the Hotshots won by 16, and you have to imagine the market is going to overweight that and heavily back Arizona here.

It’s also worth noting that this will be Salt Lake’s first home game. Last week I mentioned that I was using a value of two for home-field advantage, but with home teams going 6-2 over the first two weeks, I’ve bumped it up to 2.5.

The total of 44 is right in line with my initial estimate.

The league has been a bit lower scoring than expected with the average final being 39.25 points. And one reason sharp bettors might lean toward the under here is the very fact that these teams met just two weeks ago. In the NFL, the second meeting of the season between teams is typically lower scoring.

There’s some weight that can be given to the fact that these teams will be better equipped to game plan defensively as they already have a pretty good idea of what to expect.

PICK: Hold

Memphis Express at Orlando Apollos