49ers-Seahawks Betting Preview: Don’t Underestimate San Fran

49ers-Seahawks Betting Preview: Don’t Underestimate San Fran article feature image

USA Today Sports. Pictured: Russell Wilson, Richard Sherman

Betting odds: San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks

  • Spread: Seahawks -10
  • Over/Under: 46
  • Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: FOX

>> All odds as of Friday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets

Betting market: This lofty divisional spread has seen some back and forth action. Lopsided betting activity favors the Seahawks, who are commanding almost 70% of bets as of writing (see live data here).

However, the line has fallen to 9.5 a couple of times, as the Niners are getting 62% of the spread dollars.

The line has yet to move to 10.5, so it looks as if sharp bettors only like Seattle at -9.5.Mark Gallant

Trends to know: Bad teams have a tendency to surprise bettors. Since 2003, teams that have won fewer than 20% of their games have gone 174-140-7 (55%) against the spread when getting seven or more points, according to our Bet Labs data.

If these teams are double-digit underdogs, the record improves to 99-70-3 (59%) ATS. John Ewing

Thinking about using the Seahawks in survivor or a moneyline parlay? The 49ers haven’t beaten the Seahawks in Seattle since Week 16 of the 2011 season behind Jim Harbaugh.

That was four head coaches ago for the Niners. Alex Smith was also the quarterback.

On the flip side, Russell Wilson is 20-2 straight-up at home when he opens as a double-digit favorite. And when he faces a team below .500 in this spot, he’s 15-1 SU, winning by an average of 17.3 points.

The 49ers just lost to the Bucs on the road, 27-9. Wilson is 14-0 SU and 8-5-1 ATS as a starter at home when facing a team that scored 17 or fewer points in their previous game.

Wilson is winning those 14 home games by 16.4 points. Evan Abrams

Biggest mismatch: Seahawks WRs vs. 49ers Secondary

This is a #RevengeGame for 49ers cornerback Richard Sherman, who has looked like a Pro Bowler in his first season since leaving Seattle. But the 49ers have a league-worst 40.5 Pro Football Focus coverage grade.

Sherman has held up his end of the bargain, allowing 266 scoreless yards and a completion rate of just 55.2% on 29 targets and 360 coverage snaps.

Playing almost exclusively at left corner, he’s locking down his side of the field. And as a result, quarterbacks have wisely avoided his coverage, pivoting to his teammates who are imminently exploitable.

Cornerbacks Ahkello Witherspoon and K’Waun Williams have allowed a 62.7% completion rate. And the team’s rotation of safeties has allowed a 72.5% completion rate. Even last week, Mike Evans put up a 3-89-0 receiving line against Sherman on three targets.

Everyone in this secondary has issues.

Credit: Sergio Estrada-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: 49ers CB Ahkello Witherspoon (23) and S Jaquiski Tartt (29)

Wilson has perhaps the best receiving unit of his career. With the steady Doug Baldwin in the slot and the speedy Tyler Lockett and big-bodied David Moore on the outside, the Seahawks could dominate through the air.

Seattle leads the league with a 50.6% rush rate, but Wilson is second with 35 end-zone pass attempts and 19 touchdowns on throws into the end zone. No quarterback has thrown a higher percentage of his passes into the end zone than Wilson has at 11%.

Against this secondary and with a quarterback who gives his receivers lots of high-leverage targets, the Seahawks receivers could collectively have multiple touchdowns. Matthew Freedman

Which team is healthier? Seahawks

The Seahawks have already ruled out difference-making linebacker K.J. Wright (knee), but they’re tentatively expected to have safety Bradley McDougald (shoulder) and defensive tackle Shamar Stephen (foot). Baldwin (groin) is also expected to suit up.

The 49ers are dealing with more uncertainty with center Weston Richburg (knee), running back Matt Breida (ankle) and right guard Joshua Garnett (thumb) unable to get in full practices to start the week. Pierre Garcon (knee) and Marquise Goodwin (personal) should be considered questionable for Sunday, while the defense could be without safeties D.J. Reed (heel) and Jaquiski Tartt (shoulder) in addition to Jimmie Ward (forearm, IR).

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz

DFS edge: The Seahawks’ pass-rush isn’t great. Seattle ranks 17th in Football Outsiders’ adjusted sack rate and 25th in pressure rate, but the defense warrants consideration against a San Francisco offense that ranks 23rd in the same metric.

It helps that the 49ers are implied for a meager 18 points.

Defenses with comparable trends have historically averaged a +1.50 DraftKings Plus/Minus (per our FantasyLabs Trends tool). Justin Bailey

Bet to watch: 49ers +10

Coming off a tough victory all the way in Carolina, the Seahawks return home against a 49ers team that ranks fourth in adjusted net yards per play at +0.7. The Seahawks are -0.6 in the same stat, indicating this point spread is a touch too high.

There shouldn’t be much support for San Francisco in this spot, as the Niners have only covered in Seattle once in their past 10 tries at Century Link. This game will be also played again in just two weeks in Santa Clara.

With a Monday Night Football date against the Vikings in Week 14, it wouldn’t be a shock to see the Seahawks have a letdown week.

Finally, Seattle’s offensive line continues to have issues protecting Wilson, ranking 29th in adjusted sack rate. That should be enough for San Francisco to keep it close. Collin Wilson

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.

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