Matthew Stafford, Joe Burrow, Cooper Kupp, Joe Mixon, Samaje Perine Prop Bets For 2022 Super Bowl
Getty Images. Pictured: Rams WR Cooper Kupp and QB Matthew Stafford, Bengals QB Joe Burrow, RB Joe Mixon and RB Samaje Perine
The NFL’s season finale is here. The Rams and Bengals will face off in the 2022 Super Bowl at SoFi Stadium.
As far as the game goes, I show slight value with the Bengals and may play them pregame or wait to see if I can get a better number live. I think there’s a much higher probability that the Rams start fast and get a lead, forcing the Bengals to play from behind. I partially used that assumption (in addition to matchup analysis) when it came to the props I bet for the Super Bowl LVI.
Check out my five favorite NFL prop bets below.
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Joe Burrow Over 0.5 Interceptions
I think there’s some value in betting Burrow to throw at least one interception. Let’s first take a look at his raw numbers for this season.
Including the postseason, Burrow has thrown 16 interceptions in 19 games this year. That’s an average of 0.84 per game. He’s also been picked off at least once in 11 (58%) of those games.
He also faced a fairly easy schedule of opposing pass defenses. For example, eight of his 19 games came against the seven teams that finished with single-digit interceptions in the regular season if you count both meetings with the Ravens and Raiders.
Now, he will have to face a Rams defense that finished tied for third in the NFL with 19 interceptions in the regular season, averaging more than one per game and coming down with at least one in 12 of 17 contests. Los Angeles also has four interceptions this postseason, including at least one in each playoff game.
I also think the Rams defense profiles as one that can give Burrow some trouble. They play a high frequency of zone (which Burrow struggles a bit more with, especially two-high safety looks) and should be able to generate plenty of pressure — even without blitzing.
Burrow isn’t shy about trying to fit balls into tight windows, as he ranked second in that category during the regular season. Yes, he’s played in so many big games already in his young career — especially when you include his time at LSU — and generally thrived with 31 touchdowns to just two interceptions in nine “win-or-else” games.
However, this will still mark his first time playing on the biggest stage in sports. And it’s not like he was flawless in the AFC Championship Game against the Chiefs with one second-half interception and another that a Kansas City defender dropped.
Matthew Stafford Under 5.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
I see this as an under prop that has value due to recency bias in the market after Stafford has gone over his rushing total prop in all three playoff games.
While Stafford has indeed rushed the ball 15 times for 36 times in the playoffs with single-game totals of 8, 6 and 22 yards — that’s still a very minuscule sample size for a fairly immobile 34-year-old quarterback who simply doesn’t get around as well as he used to. Just take a look at his regular-season statistics.
In 17 regular-season games, he amassed a total of 43 rushing yards on 32 attempts or an average of just under two carries per game for 2.5 yards. Even more telling, he would’ve went under 5.5 rushing yards in 13 of those 17 games and had a median rushing output of less than a yard per game. Even if you include the postseason, he went under 5.5 rushing yards in 65% of his games this season.
He will also face a Bengals defense that I expect to play a lot more zone and blitz even less than usual, which will make scrambles even more difficult. Plus, the Bengals ranked in the top 10 in the NFL in rushing yards allowed by opposing quarterbacks during the regular season,
Opposing quarterbacks did go over this number in 11 of Cincinnati’s 20 games this year, including the playoffs, but many of those came against some of the more mobile quarterbacks in the league, including Patrick Mahomes (twice), Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields and Trevor Lawrence.
Lastly, keep in mind that the Rams are favored, so you could also get some late kneel downs at the end of the game if L.A. has possession and a lead with a chance to run the clock out. It will only take one broken scramble to ruin this prop, but I think there’s too much value to pass up here.
Cooper Kupp’s Longest Reception Over 28.5 Yards
I stole this from my colleague and Action Network prop specialist Sean Koener.
First off, Kupp is pretty much going to get his regardless of the opponent. There’s a reason he broke Michael Irvin’s record for most games in a season (13) with at least 100 receiving yards, including the postseason — with one more game to go. And I don’t see much the Bengals can do to prevent Kupp from putting up his usual gaudy numbers.
Interestingly enough, Kupp would’ve cashed this prop in 15 of 20 games this season. He could get this on a deep ball or via yards after the catch, which he can do as well as any receiver in the NFL.
He will be facing a Bengals defense that ranked 25th in explosive pass percentage during the regular season, despite facing a fairly easy schedule of opposing quarterbacks. They even got to face the following five backups for either all or part of a game:
- Bears: Andy Dalton/Justin Fields
- Broncos: Teddy Bridgewater/Drew Lock
- Browns: Case Keenum
- Ravens: Josh Johnson
- Jets: Mike White
Kupp, who had 145 receptions during the regular season, has added 25 more in three playoff games. Of those 170 total catches, 21 went for at least 29 yards, which means he averaged more than one such reception per game over the course of the season, including the playoffs.
Joe Mixon Over 25.5 Receiving Yards
I think this number is too low based on Mixon’s season-long statistics. Over the course of 16 regular-season games (he sat out the finale), the former Oklahoma product had 42 receptions (on 48 targets) for 314 yards. That only comes out to a game average of 2.6 catches (on three targets) for 19.6 yards. That’s almost 6 yards lower than where this prop is set.
However, if you dig a little deeper, you’ll notice the Bengals have involved Mixon in the passing game much more toward the end of the season. Over his past five games, he’s averaged 43.2 receptions yards and cleared 25.5 reception yards in each, including all three playoff games. This makes sense since the Bengals have gone much more pass-heavy on early downs since Week 14 of the regular season.
I also like this prop for a number of other reasons:
- Mixon should get most of the snaps at running back. This is the Super Bowl.
- The Bengals are underdogs, so the more likely game state is they are playing from behind.
- Los Angeles plays a lot of zone and should be able to get plenty of pressure, so I expect ample check downs and designed screens for Mixon. For what it’s worth, the Rams ranked 24th in Football Outsiders‘ DVOA defending running backs in the passing game.
Mixon goes ALL THE WAY on 4th down! #RuleTheJungle
— NFL (@NFL) October 17, 2021
Samaje Perine Under 14.5 Total Yards
This prop is obviously related to the one above, as I think Mixon gets almost all of the work in the backfield on Sunday. Like the Stafford prop, I also think this number is inflated due to recency bias after Perine had a long (and fortunate) touchdown reception that everyone saw against the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game.
A grown man TD for @samajp32!
Watch on CBS pic.twitter.com/5UY2Q5oRBH
— Cincinnati Bengals (@Bengals) January 30, 2022
Additionally, if you look at his season-long statistics, his prop numbers don’t look too unreasonable, but you have to remember he was getting a fairly heavy workload for about a month-long period while Mixon dealt with an ankle injury.
If you just isolate the other 17 games that Perine played, he had 29 carries for 117 yards and 22 receptions for 163 yards. In terms of per-game averages, that translates to 6.9 rushing yards and 9.6 receiving yards. So, you might be saying this number looks fair. However, as I said previously, I believe Mixon will get almost all of the work in this game, including almost every single running back carry — barring injury.
If you just look at the past five games, as we did with Mixon, Perine has two total carries for 6 yards and seven catches for 63 yards. That comes out to an average of 13.8 yards, but almost all of that came on the one screen pass for 41 yards. Remove that one flukey play and his average total yards drops to 4.4 yards over his past five games. He also went under this total yardage in the other four games in that span and going with total yardage as opposed to either rushing or receiving gives me a little more leeway if he breaks one play for say 10 yards and doesn’t get any other work, which is a possibility in my eyes.
Assuming my prediction of him getting almost no carries comes to fruition, I’ll take my chances with him Perine not breaking another long screen. Hopefully, it’s Mixon who does that this time around.