2022 Super Bowl MVP Odds, Picks, Predictions: Cooper Kupp Named MVP After Rams Beat Bengals
Getty Images. Pictured: 2022 Super Bowl MVP Cooper Kupp
2022 Super Bowl MVP Winner
Cooper Kupp was named 2022 Super Bowl MVP following the Rams’ 23-20 victory over the Bengals, cashing +600 tickets. Read more here.
Editor’s note: The rest of this story was written and published before kickoff.
One of the more exciting longshot bets you can make for any Super Bowl is who will be crowned the MVP. The 2022 Super Bowl is no different, with a full slate of deserving players ready to leave it all on the field at SoFi Stadium.
We know this is a quarterback league and that things look at least a little bleak for anyone not named Joe Burrow or Matthew Stafford, but that’s where the fun begins. With a recent trend leaving non-quarterbacks not entirely on the outside looking in, there are plenty of reasons to lock in an unsuspecting player now as your bet for the Super Bowl MVP.
If you think the Bengals will be hoisting the Lombardi Trophy after Super Bowl LVI, you might as well get that Tee Higgins MVP bet locked in before you finish reading this story (we’re only kidding — please read the whole story).
Meanwhile, one expert outlines why Leonard Floyd might be your guy if you’re banking on a Rams win. Find out why below.
2022 Super Bowl MVP Odds
Quarterbacks Matthew Stafford (+100) and Joe Burrow (+225) have the best odds to take home the award this Sunday, followed by Rams WR Cooper Kupp (+600) and Rams DT Aaron Donald (+1400).
Click the arrow to expand the full list of 2022 Super Bowl MVP odds via DraftKings
|Odell Beckham Jr||+2800|
2022 Super Bowl MVP Predictions
Bengals WR Tee Higgins (+5000)
Chris Raybon: If you like the Bengals to win, consider investing a bit in a longshot MVP nod for Tee Higgins.
The Rams run one of the most zone-heavy defenses in the NFL, and while Ja’Marr Chase has been the Bengals’ best receiver in terms of yards per route run against both man (3.59) and zone (2.38) coverage (per PFF), he averaged 1.21 more yards per route against man than zone. Meanwhile, Higgins was nearly dead even, averaging 2.13 against zone and 2.12 against man.
Higgins has also been the Bengals’ top receiver against Cover 4, which the Rams play more than any other team in the NFL. On top of that, Higgins has been the Bengals’ top receiver on passes to the short middle, where the Rams ranked 30th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA.
Chase is the Bengals’ top dog, but he will get defensive attention commensurate with such status, which will force Higgins to step up. If the Bengals win and Chase doesn’t have a monster game, there’s a decent chance that Burrow also doesn’t post a monster stat line, as the two have a fantasy-point correlation of 0.64 according to the FantasyLabs NFL Pro Models. It’s conceivable we get a situation like last week, where Higgins had 103 of Burrow’s 250 yards (41.2%).
Wide receivers have won the award 12.5% of the time overall, but that’s been on the rise of late, with wideouts taking home the MVP trophy in four of the past 17 Super Bowls (23.5%). There’s even precedent for a wide receiver winning this award against these very Rams, as Julian Edelman took home the award over Tom Brady with a 10/141/0 performance in Super Bowl LIII.
Bet to: +2500
Bengals WR Tee Higgins (+5000)
Sean Koerner: When it comes to Super Bowl MVP, quarterbacks are the most likely to win the award. Over the past 20 Super Bowls, 13 have won the award (65% win rate). When pitting those odds with each team’s current implied win probability, Stafford’s fair odds would be +140 and Burrow’s would be +330.
That said, wide receivers have won the award in four of the past 20 years (20% win rate). And considering there are a few elite receivers featured in this game, it makes sense to target one in the MVP market. I’m projecting this spread closer to Rams -3, so I see value on the Bengals to cover +4.5 and their moneyline. Therefore, I’m keying in on Tee Higgins at +6000 odds (via FanDuel) as the top value plays in the Super Bowl MVP market.
Higgins is one of the best up-and-coming wide receivers in the game and is more than capable of posting a big enough line to earn himself Super Bowl MVP.
If the Rams go out of their way to slow down Ja’Marr Chase, it could open the door for Higgins to have a massive game. The Rams use zone coverage at the second-highest rate in the league (per SportsInfoSolutions), which makes this a plus matchup for Higgins.
Yards Per Route Run Against Man vs. Zone:
- Ja’Marr Chase: 3.59 vs. 2.38
- Tee Higgins: 2.12 vs. 2.13
via Pro Football Focus
As you can see, Chase is the clear alpha in the passing attack when facing man coverage. However, against zone, the gap narrows considerably. Tyler Boyd has been held fewer than 40 yards in four straight games and C.J. Uzomah could be more of a decoy as he attempts to play through a sprained MCL.
The path to Higgins having an MVP-like performance is much more likely than his +6000 price tag. I would bet 0.1 unit down to +5000.
Bet to: +5000
Rams OLB Leonard Floyd (+15000)
Chris Raybon: If you like the Rams to win, Leonard Floyd is the top longshot.
Aaron Donald and Von Miller are the household names who will get more of the handle and more defensive attention, but Floyd will be left one-on-one and could run over, through and around right tackle Isaiah Prince.
Floyd has 70 pressures and 13.0 sacks this season and is one of the best candidates to be in the right place at the right time to capitalize on havoc caused by Donald and/or Miller in the backfield.
Bet to: +7500