No position in team sports is more important than quarterback.
Quarterbacks touch the ball every single play. An elite QB can drag an average roster deep into the playoffs, but a bad signal caller can doom an elite roster.
In my NFL Power Rankings, quarterback reigns supreme by a huge margin. I count QB to be worth over 40% of the entire offensive unit ranking and almost 25% of the overall roster rank. It's just that important.
Consider Josh Allen, for example. With Allen healthy, the Bills rank in the top eight both offensively and overall in my system. Replace him with a league-average starter, though, and the Bills drop to No. 20 on offense, a fringe playoff contender. Give Buffalo the worst QB in the league and they drop to a bottom-five offense, irrelevant to the playoff picture.
That's why QBs get their own column and why we'll check in on these rankings all season. We've got eight new Opening Day starters in 2024, a quarter of the league, and there's volatility at the top. The top 10 alone features one QB who didn't start last Opening Day, one who was a rookie, one who ranked No. 27 in this column a year ago, and one who didn't play all season.
Which QB would you take right now for one season on a new team, agnostic to surrounding talent and scheme? That's the question we're attempting to answer today at the league's most important position. These are my 2024 Week 1 quarterback rankings, from 1 to 32.
2024 NFL Quarterback Rankings
| Tier Number | Category |
|---|---|
| Tier 1 | The Chief Stands Alone |
| Tier 2 | The Best of the Rest |
| Tier 3 | The Perennial MVP Contenders |
| Tier 4 | I Still Believe — But I Have Some Questions |
| Tier 5 | The Litmus Tests |
| Tier 6 | The Complete Wild Cards |
| Tier 7 | It's the System, Stupid |
| Tier 8 | The Game Managers |
| Tier 9 | The Unknown Youngsters |
| Tier 10 | The Place Holders |
| Betting Takeaways |
Tier 1 — The Chief Stands Alone
1. Patrick Mahomes (Last Year: 1)
Six years as a starter, six AFC Championship Games, three Super Bowl rings, zero questions left.
Patrick Mahomes is coming off his worst year as a pro but he won another ring anyway. He continues to evolve and now has a talented trio of receivers in rookie Xavier Worthy, Hollywood Brown, and sophomore breakout Rashee Rice.
Imagine playing an 18-game season and going 15-3 with 5,135 passing yards, 41 touchdowns, and eight interceptions. That's Mahomes' career stats — in the playoffs!
One of one.
Tier 2 — The Best of the Rest
2. Josh Allen (3)
3. Joe Burrow (2)
For me, the top three quarterbacks are very clear right now, and so is the order.
Josh Allen is an absolute monster, and he might be closer to Mahomes than he is to the rest of the pack.
From a clean pocket, Pro Football Focus (PFF) graded Allen a 95 last season, just ahead of Tua Tagovailoa, Jared Goff, and Brock Purdy. With no pressure, Allen single-handedly turns his offense into a Kyle Shanahan or Ben Johnson attack — that's ridiculous! The pressured dropbacks are a whirlwind, but with Allen, you get the big time throws along with the dangerous ones. His turnovers will be up, but you want him taking those chances because he's creating even more big plays to go along with them.
Allen is a huge value add as a runner too and quietly became a huge end zone threat under OC Joe Brady, rushing for 11 TDs in his final eight games. He almost never gets sacked, negating some of the negative plays his arm makes. He's the whole package.
The problem isn't the occasional over-aggressive throw — it's the once-a-month bad game Allen seems to have. You have to win four in a row to win a ring. Can Allen actually do that?
Joe Burrow is coming off a rough season and tumbling down QB rankings, but that feels a bit premature.
There's little reason to think Burrow is injury-prone. He dealt with a calf strain and wrist ligament tear last fall and has had finger and rib injuries the last few years, with the torn knee ligaments the one major injury. That list reads as fluky, bad luck, not some sort of pattern.
And when Burrow is healthy and out on the field, he's still about as good as any quarterback. He led all QBs in PFF grade two seasons in a row before last year, and he has the best accuracy and touch in the league with a lightning quick release and great decision making and processing speed.
Just because Burrow doesn't have some of the physical tools we're seeing from other QBs around the league doesn't mean he's not as great as ever when healthy.
Tier 3 — Perennial MVP Contenders
4. Aaron Rodgers (6)
5. Jordan Love (27)
6. Dak Prescott (10)
7. Lamar Jackson (7)
It got interesting in a hurry with this tier.
If these rankings were more spatial, perhaps we'd have left this entire tier empty with a big space on the page — that's how big the gap feels right now after the top three, with an unproven crew waiting to step into the void.
That's why Aaron Rodgers still gets top billing, even at age 40 coming off a torn Achilles.
Rodgers effectively didn't play last season, and he had perhaps the worst year of his career in Green Bay the season before that but was playing with a fractured thumb on his throwing hand and mostly checked out. He won MVP the two previous years and still ranked near the top of the league in virtually every advanced metric.
Rodgers has 10 seasons with double-digit wins and a winning record in 13 of his 16 seasons starting. He was close to returning from that torn Achilles already last December, eight months ago, and it's on his non-plant foot so he's expected to be ready to go. Tom Brady still had five good years left at age 40. Why can't Rodgers?
Don't look now, but ARod's replacement Jordan Love is right behind him in the ranks.
Love leaps from bottom six to top six and effectively made that same leap within last season. He started the year 3-6, completing 59% of his passes with an ugly 3.3% interception rate, and then exploded over the final eight games, going 6-2 with a 70% completion rate and throwing 18 TDs with just one pick.
From Week 8 forward, Love had a 90.4 PFF grade with 27 Big Time Throws and just 10 Turnover-Worthy Passes, and he finished the season top five in Big Time Throws and would have been top five on my MVP ballot. He then went on to continue his elite play in two playoff games against excellent Dallas and San Francisco defenses.
So what do we do with that? For half a season, Love was downright bad. In the other half, he was a top-five QB. Green Bay paid him like it believes the leap was real. I'm choosing to believe, too.
You'll notice a theme throughout these QB rankings — it's just about always worth swinging for upside at the most important position in sports, and Love flashed MVP upside during his most recent 10 games.
Dak Prescott flashed MVP upside all last season and absolutely should've won it, but that's a column for another day. He finished top two in completions, TDs, EPA, Success Rate, and EPA + CPOE and did it all for a Dallas offense that often didn't do him a ton of favors with Mike McCarthy calling the plays.
That's not new either. Remember the weird interceptions spike two seasons ago? Prescott was top two in EPA that season excluding turnovers, and that outlier magically regressed and disappeared last season as expected, too. The playoffs have not gone well, but Prescott has played like an elite regular season QB for two years.
And then there's the actual defending MVP Lamar Jackson, who had the best passing season of his career under OC Todd Monken.
Jackson has his foibles — he holds the ball too long, struggles to stay healthy, and absolutely cannot seem to put together a worthy playoff run, ranking dead last in PFF grade the past four playoffs among qualified players — but the upside is electric. He had a career high yards per attempt (YPA) and completion percentage, cut the turnovers a touch, and is finally playing like a top passer and not just an elite runner.
Still, Jackson just isn't for me. I don't trust his arm enough compared to the other choices in this tier, I don't trust him in the playoffs, and I thought his MVP last season was a shambolic choice. But there's no question he's matured as a passer and is one of the best quarterbacks in the league.
Tier 4 — I Still Believe… But I Have Some Questions
8. C.J. Stroud (18)
9. Justin Herbert (4)
10. Kyler Murray (Not Ranked)
11. Trevor Lawrence (8)
I love C.J. Stroud — Texans Island!! — and expect him to ascend to that next tier soon, but I'm being cautious until he answers a few remaining questions.
Stroud was awesome bombing downfield last year in OC Bobby Slowik's system, but we discount Brock Purdy and Tua Tagovailoa for their production in a Shanahan system, so why does Stroud get full credit? His 3.04 seconds to throw ranks bottom five, and his 49 PFF grade under pressure is a real worry and something that was a problem at Ohio State too.
Stroud is awesome in a clean pocket and great downfield, but he needs work on the short stuff and still needs to prove he can do it with more on his plate in a more aggressive play-calling system, not the extremely run-heavy one Slowik protected him with last fall. He'll need to show he can solve defenses that have adjusted and taken away his first look and forced him to his worse Plan B, just like Mahomes and Burrow did before him.
There's plenty to like about C.J. Stroud but still questions to be answered.
At some point, Justin Herbert is going to have to actually do the thing.
Herbert has all the talent in the world but sits at 30-32 for his career with a single playoff game, and four years of data say Herbert is mostly just fine as an NFL quarterback, with really only one great year thus far.
Herbert completes a ton of his passes and rarely turns it over, but he really plays too conservative. This dude's been given the keys to a Rolls Royce with his talent but drives like he's got a Kia, and new coach Jim Harbaugh might only ingrain that conservative nature further. Add in the planter fasciitis that may plague Herbert all year and I'm finally dropping him well outside my top five until he proves he belongs.
Kyler Murray definitely doesn't belong in the top 10 based on the last two seasons, but I'm calling my shot.
Murray was not great after returning from his torn ACL late last fall, and he wasn't particularly good the year before that but was banged up that season too. But the last time we saw Kyler healthy, he was the MVP favorite halfway through the season with terrific advanced metrics, finishing the year with 43 Big Time Throws and just 14 Turnover-Worthy Plays.
And don't forget, that was playing in OC Kliff Kingsbury's horrid scheme. The truth is that we've still yet to see a healthy Murray play in a real NFL offense, like he hopefully will for OC Drew Petzing this season. The injury concern is real, and so are the struggles against pressure and throwing over the middle, but the upside is there and he's got a real cadre of weapons now in Marvin Harrison Jr., Michael Wilson, and Trey McBride.
Murray is still only 27 years old. He has the talent to leap into the top five and contend for an MVP someday.
There's little question Trevor Lawrence has that level of talent too, but it just hasn't translated enough to the NFL yet to justify including him in the top 10.
Many counting stats and even advanced stats like EPA and CPOE rate Lawrence around league-average as a starter, but dig a little deeper and there's still a lot to like. Lawrence ranked No. 28 against man coverage last season but No. 2 against zone, and he finished top five in both Big Time Throws and fewest Turnover-Worthy Plays. He's also struggled to find consistent play calling with a lost rookie season under Urban Mayer and then whatever OC Press Taylor was calling last fall.
Lawrence has all the arm talent in the world and makes quick reads and gets the ball out quickly, and he still hasn't had much help blocking or at receiver. He's been consistently terrible against pressure in the NFL, hidden a bit by his quick throwing time. Interestingly enough, new backup Mac Jones has a lot of the same traits. There's still a great QB waiting to be developed in there, but we haven't seen it consistently enough yet.
Tier 5 — The Litmus Tests
12. Jalen Hurts (5)
13. Matthew Stafford (16)
14. Kirk Cousins (11)
15. Geno Smith (13)
Last fall I ranked Jalen Hurts too high (No. 5) and this year he's probably too low (No. 12).
Even in a bad year, Hurts ranked top seven in EPA, CPOE, and PFF grade last fall, and he ranked even higher the previous season. He's missed only three games as a starter despite the physical toll his body takes, and his ability as a runner and Tush Push expert adds a ton of hidden value to his team.
So why does something still feel off? Hurts takes a long time to throw, over three seconds, and invites pressure by holding the ball too long, and he's bad under pressure. You should not have the third most pressured dropbacks playing behind this elite line, and the truth is that the Eagles are one of the top three QB situations in the league with great blocking, outstanding weapons, and good play calling.
The quarterbacks in this tier are litmus tests. They're good-not-great QBs who play to the level of their surroundings. We've seen Hurts play like an MVP in this setting, but we've also seen him struggle last season when things didn't go as well around him. Maybe this tier is exactly where he belongs.
Many would rank Matthew Stafford higher, but over a decade of data said Stafford was a very average QB until he got into this great McVay system and started looking pretty good. Even now, he ranked outside the top 10 in EPA and Success Rate and near the bottom of the league in CPOE, and while he can certainly make just about any throw, he remains pretty inconsistent from one game and season to the next.
Even last season, Stafford was mostly forgettable until an elite five-game stretch late that's most recent in everyone's minds. Elite QBs are consistently great, and Stafford just hasn't been that — and maybe that's why he's won double-digit games only three times. There are still too many mistakes, and there's also serious injury risk at age 36 for a QB who might be one more hit away from retirement. Stafford has been undeniably elite in the playoffs since becoming a Ram, but the regular season results are simply too inconsistent.
Kirk Cousins is the definition of a litmus-test quarterback. He's just good enough to tantalize, never good enough to be anything more. Cousins has never finished below .500 as a starter, with a 9.4-win rate since becoming a starter, which is just about right. He's hyper efficient, much more than you'd think, and he takes care of the ball and makes the right throws.
Unlike Rodgers, Cousins' Achilles injury was to his plant foot and also came later in the season, so that's more of a risk at age 36, especially on a brand new team.
Geno Smith has been a tail of two halves each of the past two seasons. In 2022, he played at an elite level the first half of the season but led the league in Turnover-Worthy Throws the second half. Last season, the turnover issues came early, and then he finished the second half of the year hot.
When things are good for Geno, they're really great. He has a 91 PFF grade on early downs, second best in the league, and has arguably the best deep ball in the NFL with 57 Big Time Throws the last two seasons, top two both years. Unfortunately, Smith's bads are just as bad. That PFF grade drops to 63 on late downs, and he continues to struggle mightily under pressure and plays behind a bad line.
I'm intrigued by Geno Smith's fit in new OC Ryan Grubb's offense. If you watched the University of Washington last fall, you saw Grubb's guys dial it up deep over and over again to a trio of talented receivers. Smith has the best over-the-shoulder down field ball in the league and a great trio of pass catchers in DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
If Grubb can maximize the good parts of Geno and minimize the bad, Smith has a shot at a top 10 season.
Tier 6 — The Wild Cards
16. Deshaun Watson (9)
17. Anthony Richardson (30)
18. Caleb Williams (NR)
You hate at least one of these rankings, maybe all three. I get it.
There's virtually no chance any of these three finish the year as league-average quarterbacks. All three are either 10 spots too high — or 10 spots too low. And at this point of the rankings, it's worth taking a swing on playoff-contending upside over the other remaining names.
On just his time in Cleveland, Deshaun Watson may not even be an NFL starting quarterback, let alone league-average or great.
No, there's not something good hidden in the numbers over the last two seasons. They're ghastly: around 60% completion percentage, 40% Success Rate, 10% sack rate, awful time to throw, terrible under pressure, bad from every angle. Based on what we've seen in those 12 games, Jameis Winston should be starting over Watson.
But there are pretty obvious reasons these games would not have gone well for Watson. The first six came halfway through a season with brand new teammates he hadn't even practiced with yet for a guy who hadn't played football (for good reason!) in almost two years. Then six games last season saw Watson struggle through a shoulder injury on his throwing arm and never really look comfortable. It doesn't excuse the bad play, but it makes sense that Watson would not have played well in those stretches.
Watson hasn't been even remotely good on a football field since 2020, but it's worth remembering how great he was during his last healthy season. He ranked No. 2 in EPA + CPOE that year, just ahead of Mahomes, Allen, and Brady, completing nearly 70% of his passes for almost eight yard per attempt and an elite 92 PFF grade.
In some other timeline, Watson would be No. 4 in these rankings, maybe even in that tier with Allen and Burrow. He could very well be out of the league by season's end, but he still has MVP upside, especially with new OC Ken Dorsey and a team situation set up for a QB to succeed. I'm giving him one more chance.
For all intents and purposes, Antony Richardson is effectively a rookie. He's played roughly three NFL games and didn't have good passing metrics, and he hasn't been particularly impressive this preseason with a weird sidearm-angle throw and slow processing at times, and the accuracy is still pretty rough.
That means this is entirely a projection of tools and upside, hoping Richardson can stay healthy this season and step up behind a great offensive line and a terrific system. I'm not really there on Richardson, especially yet, but a lot of smart people I trust are. He's a huge wild card.
Caleb Williams is a giant wild card as a rookie too.
He certainly has that Patrick Mahomes feel, scrambling out of the pocket, keeping the play alive a half-second extra, firing into impossible windows. But that same skill set is also why Williams takes a long time to throw, eats a heap of sacks, and makes a ton of Turnover-Worthy Passes, almost double the other top prospects in this year's class. Those mistakes will turn into negative plays at the next level.
Williams can hit the home run but sometimes in the NFL you just need a few singles, not negative EPA drive killers. Chicago's offensive line still isn't very good at pass blocking, and I fear this could be a rocky transition filled with occasional highlights but plenty of bumps along the way.
Drake Maye would belong in this tier too, were he starting. Read my Williams and Maye analysis here.
Tier 7 — It's the System, Stupid
19. Brock Purdy (24)
20. Jared Goff (14)
21. Derek Carr (12)
22. Tua Tagovailoa (15)
Another controversial tier, perhaps?
In today's modern NFL, there are a handful of truly elite play callers capable of scheming up such good offense that they can make otherwise average quarterbacks look like world beaters. That makes those quarterbacks impossible difficult to analyze, but since we're evaluating these players in a vacuum — away from their play callers — we have to try.
On advanced metrics alone, Brock Purdy deserves to be ranked at least 10 spots higher. Heck, many metrics would suggest Purdy should be No. 1. That's where he ranked in EPA, CPOE, YPA, QBR, Success Rate, pick a metric and Purdy probably led it last season. Turns out life is pretty good playing with the best weapons in the league, a Hall of Fame tackle, and the league's best play caller.
Purdy fails the eye test at times, and it sure seems like he gets away with a ton of sailed throws, but he's also capable of creating off script in a way previous Shanahan QBs were not. That makes Purdy unreliable, and his metrics reflect that. He had a 99.9 PFF grade on deep balls this past season but 58 the previous year, and unlike a couple other guys in this tier, he graded out poorly when getting the ball out quickly but better when he had the ball longer. Perhaps Purdy is less of a Shanny QB than it seems, but it's that unpredictable upside that might be needed to get Shanahan that elusive ring. Those two need each other.
Jared Goff is an especially difficult read since he's spent almost his entire career playing for either Sean McVay or Ben Johnson — and he went 0-7 and 3-10-1 in the two years he wasn't in one of those systems. Of course, Goff has also won at an 11.2-win rate in the other seasons, he doesn't make many mistakes, and he's taken some of those teams deep into the playoffs with a respectable 4-4 career postseason record.
The problem is that Goff's teams only ever win the big games in spite, not because of, him. He still struggles outside structure or under pressure, and he still struggles in the outdoor weather he's sure to face on any playoff run. Regular season Goff in an elite system has proven quite capable — but even there, his coaches still try to hide him in the season's biggest moments.
Goff is playing in the best QB situation in the league, with the No. 1 offensive line, good weapons, and elite play calling. He's done well there, but in my estimation, the guys above him on the list would do even better.
Tua Tagovailoa is a lesser version of Brock Purdy in that his metrics are all around top five, and he too had a brief flirtation with the MVP odds before falling short. But Tua's foibles are even more apparent. He really struggles when thrown off rhythm or unable to make his first read, and he remains far too reliant on what the play should be after the snap instead of what's actually happening.
When the pocket is clean and Mike McDaniel is scheming up the right play to those speedy WRs, Tagovailoa can get the ball out quickly and accurately, playing point guard for his team. Anything else is trouble though, and that only takes you so far before bad weather or a tough opponent takes you down.
And then there's Derek Carr, who is the absolute antithesis to this tier, bouncing from one system to the next without any real consistency around him and seemingly never in the right spot.
Carr isn't a great NFL quarterback, but he's not bad either! He might be the most average starting quarterback in the NFL — and unfortunately, that's a valuable floor but just only so valuable in the end. Carr never misses games and he's pretty accurate but struggles to read the middle of the field and leaves too many plays on the field. But couldn't Carr play like Jared Goff if he ever got that situation in Detroit? Could he be Purdy in San Francisco? I think he'd look pretty similar, with the same improved numbers but the same ultimate limitations.
Derek Carr is the quarterback everyone thinks Kirk Cousins is. He is NFL Goldilocks. He's fine.
Tier 8 — The Game Managers
22. Russell Wilson (17)
23. Baker Mayfield (31)
24. Sam Darnold (NR)
These are the guys that you want handing the ball off, making quick, easy throws, and leaving the defense and run game to win the day.
Can Russell Wilson even do that anymore?
Pittsburgh appears about to find out, but Wilson is 17-27 the last three seasons after a 98-45 start, with all of his strengths slowly fading away and all of his shortcomings even shorter. Both he and presumed backup Justin Fields hold the ball as long as anyone in the NFL before throwing, which could be a disaster behind a poor pass-blocking line, and Wilson's signature improvisational skills are fading now too.
Baker Mayfield was a bit better than this ranking a year ago but we'll see if he can do it without Dave Canales.
The numbers suggest he got the ball out faster and got to play with the best receivers of his career but probably just is what he is at this point. It turns out he was starting-caliber all along, just not a very good one.
Sam Darnold is my pick for this year's Baker Mayfield.
Darnold's career numbers are pretty terrible across the board, but he's looked improved over the past two seasons and he'll play in a QB-friendly system with the best receiver in the NFL. Don't be surprised if Kevin O'Connell coaxes something approaching league-average QB play out of Darnold somehow.
Tier 9 — The Unknown Youngsters
26. Jayden Daniels (NR)
27. Bryce Young (19)
28. Will Levis (NR)
29. Bo Nix (NR)
We haven't seen much of the four guys in this tier, and it's unlikely they'll step in as good quarterbacks in 2024.
There's no question Jayden Daniels has that "it" factor as a runner, but he's going to need it behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league, and he needs to prove his slight frame can take an NFL beating. Daniels probably also won't get much help from OC Kliff Kingsbury's offense. At least Washington fans are used to seeing their signal caller get sacked.
Bryce Young was horrendous last season no matter how you measure it: under 60% completion rate, second to last among starters in EPA and Success Rate, a close-your-eyes-awful 5.5 YPA with a sack every nine dropbacks. Nothing from last season suggests Young is even an NFL quarterback.
Luckily, Bryce is still, well, Young. He's 23 and gets a fresh start with Dave Canales, who brought out the best in Baker Mayfield and Geno Smith the last two seasons, and he'll have better receivers this year so that should help too. Expect a much different version of last year's No. 1 pick this season.
We only got a handful of Will Levis games last fall, and they were a roller coaster. Levis chucked at every opportunity, leading the league with an outrageous 10.5 air yards per throw, per Next Gen Stats. His accuracy is far off, with a terrible 24.6% uncatchable rate dead last among returning starters.
It's clear Levis has the arm to hit the big throw, but there are way too many lows. Levis needs to prove he can hit a few singles and keep his offense on the field for more than just a couple big plays a game.
I thought Bo Nix was a third-round draft pick and a career backup. At age 24, he should be readier than a typical rookie, but he's unproven under pressure and severely lacks arm talent and zip. He's probably the best quarterback in this tier right now, but his upside might top out in that game managers tier a few spots up.
Tier 10 — The Place Holders
30. Daniel Jones (21)
31. Gardner Minshew (NR)
32. Jacoby Brissett (NR)
We've reached the bottom of the barrel, and that's where Daniel Jones belongs at this point.
Even the good version of Jones two years ago was fake. The turnovers dropped under Brian Daboll but that's mostly because Jones was playing QB with training wheels on. He has a consistently minuscule aDOT and terrible YPA, and he was at -2.6 air yards to the sticks last season with an abysmal 31.6% pressure to sack rate.
Jones adds value as a runner, but that's about his only plus skill as an NFL quarterback, and he's coming off a torn ACL so that may be hampered too. Expect to see Drew Lock at some point this season.
The mustachioed Gardner Minshew is a cult hero but probably not a starting quarterback. He's horrendous under pressure and doesn't offer much upside.
Minshew might be the Mendoza line of modern QBs — you gotta be better than him to start, and if you're not clearly better, you're probably gonna be holding the clipboard on the sidelines.
Jacoby Brissett brings up the rear. Brissett's strength is never turning the ball over. Everything else about his game has a low, capped ceiling, but Brissett is not going to throw picks. He's not going to do a whole lot of anything, to be honest.
That makes Brissett exactly what you want in a backup who can manage things for a couple games when your starter goes down but unfortunately not much more than that.
Like the other guys in this list, he's just holding down a spot until the next guy's ready — Drake Maye in this case.
5 Key Takeaways for Bettors
1. The AFC looks like an absolute bloodbath once again.
The top four quarterbacks in my rankings all reside in the AFC, and so do seven of the top nine. In case you forgot, only seven teams make the playoffs from each conference — and that seven doesn't even include Miami or Cleveland from last year's postseason or young QBs like Trevor Lawrence and Anthony Richardson.
If you don't have at least a good quarterback in the AFC, you might very well be drawing dead. There's just far too much competition. That's bad news for Pittsburgh and maybe Cleveland.
It's also a reminder that the AFC playoffs are going to be insane. An AFC team will likely have to beat three top-10 QBs just to get to the Super Bowl. Think twice before investing too heavily in AFC futures.
Of course, on the other hand…
2. The NFC looks far more wide open and ripe for a surprise team or two to make a run.
Who's the best quarterback in the NFC this season?
It was Dak Prescott last fall, though Jordan Love made a big push late. It could be Jalen Hurts or Matthew Stafford.
But if everything goes right, isn't it possible three months from now that the best NFC QB is Kyler Murray? He's as talented as any option with good young receivers and a great OC in Drew Petzing. Or how about Geno Smith taking another step forward under OC Ryan Grubb with that electric trio of weapons?
Arizona or Seattle futures could be intriguing if you believe. So too for a long shot like Carolina or Washington if Bryce Young or Jayden Daniels click right away, and Caleb Williams could have Chicago buzzing if he's great immediately. If there's a name on that list you like, you should consider betting them to win the division or even the NFC.
Just last year, we said the same thing and the No. 27 QB on the list, Jordan Love, made a big push while No. 14 — Jared Goff, the same ranking as Geno Smith this year — came a few plays away while No. 24 Brock Purdy won the NFC. Who will step forward in the NFC this season?
3. If you're looking for volatile teams with long tails in either direction, look at Cleveland, Indianapolis, and Chicago.
Deshaun Watson, Anthony Richardson, and Caleb Williams are the three QBs from our wild cards tier, just taking an upside swing on talent and hoping it hits.
Last year's rankings had a similar tier in that range, and Justin Fields and Bryce Young were busts. But C.J. Stroud won Rookie of the Year and led the Texans all the way to the playoffs and even won a game.
Watson and Richardson both step into top-seven quarterback situations by my rankings, and Williams inherits top-five weapons. If any one of these guys is immediately great, their teams are good enough around them to be great right away too.
Stay away from median outcomes on the Browns, Colts, and Bears. If you're out, fade hard. And if you're in, don't be afraid to dream big.
4. Beware placing that future on San Francisco, Detroit, or Miami.
The 49ers and Lions are the biggest NFC favorites and two of the top four Super bowl favorites, and the Dolphins aren't too far behind. Look at the coaches and rosters on those teams and it's pretty easy to see why.
Even the best coaching schemes can only prop up a quarterback for so long. As we saw in last year's playoffs, eventually Purdy, Goff, and Tagovailoa had to go make plays on their own and try to win a game for their team, and all three proved incapable of doing so on the biggest stage.
That doesn't mean these teams can't win it all, but it does mean you're bound to have a sick feeling in your stomach as a bettor sometime this season with your ticket in the hands of a QB you don't believe in.
Just know that if one of those teams does win the Super Bowl this year, it will likely come in spite of their quarterback — not because of him. Be careful.
5. Aaron Rodgers might be the biggest single swing player in the entire NFL in 2024.
Can Aaron Rodgers still be a top-five quarterback at age 40 coming off a torn Achilles on a team he's literally never even completed a pass for?
That's a steep ask, but Rodgers has been so good for so long that it's hard to count him out.
And here's the thing — if Rodgers is even close to a top-five quarterback still, you might be severely underrating just how good the Jets can be this season.
We already know the defense is great, and that was despite the worst offense in the league by DVOA — a difficult feat. That offense featured the worst QB play in the league and a bottom five offensive line too.
This year's offensive line leaps from bottom five to top 10 or better, and if QB leaps from dead last to anything close to top five too, that is a massive, crazy swing in New York's favor.
With last year's QB and O-line play, I make the Jets a bottom five offense and bottom 10 team overall. If Rodgers and the line are exactly league average, the Jets are exactly league-average too. But if the line is as good as it looks, the Jets are up to No. 12 in my matrix, and if Rodgers is still fringe-top-five too, the Jets should be a top 10 offense and one of the best teams in the AFC.
Aaron Rodgers is the biggest swing player in the NFL this season. Rodgers is +2500 to win MVP and the Jets are +1000 to win the AFC — and those odds are still both too long.
