Betting on quarterback ineptitude is one of my NFL guilty pleasures. I especially like back-breaking interceptions that completely flip the momentum of the game.
That’s why I’m diving headfirst into the quarterback interception market to identify key spots each week to cash in on quarterback miscues.
Here are my two favorite NFL interception props for Week 15.
NFL Interception Props for Week 15
Drake Maye to Throw an Interception (+110)
The rise of Patriots QB Drake Maye has been a fun ride this season. He’s near the top of NFL MVP odds and helped bring the Pats back to respectability after a few losing seasons.
However, he’s facing the Bills in a rematch at home and after pulling off the upset earlier this season, I think Maye could turn it over and throw an interception in this matchup.
Maye has six interceptions this season, with four coming in home games. The thing about Maye is he hasn’t really had to go up against a tough opponent in a while, so there might be some recency bias in keeping clean on the turnovers.
The Patriots' recent four-game sample featured the Bucs, Jets, Giants and Bengals — all four of those opponents have one thing in common: they’re weak defending the pass.
All four rank in the bottom 10 in defensive DVOA vs. the pass and even though Maye was able to slice them up, he still threw an interception in two of those matchups. When he faced teams in the upper half of pass-defense DVOA, like the Steelers and Falcons, he threw an interception.
Now, I’m not going to make the case that the Bills are a juggernaut defensively, but they have generated timely turnovers in some of these high-profile games, like when they forced two interceptions off Joe Burrow last week or to close the game vs Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.
The Bills' defensive line can get pressure (top 11) while ranking bottom-10 in blitz rate, so they can sit back in coverage and wait for the mistake. Maye has 13 turnover-worthy plays this season, with 11 of them coming from when he isn’t blitzed. I still think sportsbooks are pricing his INT prop like he’s playing the Jets.
Bo Nix to Throw an Interception (+126)
Even though Bills-Patriots is a big matchup this week, Packers–Broncos is a hypothetical Super Bowl preview.
However, the one thing I can’t get out of my mind is that Broncos QB Bo Nix might be the weak link and turn the ball over with an interception.
Last week, I took Bears QB Caleb Williams to throw an interception against the Packers because his turnover-worthy-play rate increased when he saw pressure but wasn’t blitzed.
Well, the same checks out for Nix, who has 14 turnover-worthy plays this season, with 13 coming from non-blitz dropbacks. The Packers are the type of team that can get pressure (ranked ninth) while ranking bottom five vs the blitz.
The secondary can sit back and let DE Micah Parsons cause havoc, force the QB to have to make a quick throw and wait for the mistake.
Nix has had some ups and downs this season at home, with six of his nine interceptions coming at Mile High Stadium. Considering the stakes of this game and the Packers' ability to limit explosive plays, I expected Nix’s INT odds to be closer to -130, so I’ll take the value at a coin flip.
