For NFL Week 15, I'm on my two favorite sides for Bills vs Patriots and Chargers vs Chiefs. For the first time ever, you may actually like these. I usually back some of the worst quarterbacks in the league, but I am rolling with two of the best this Sunday.
You can find those NFL predictions and analysis for each game below.
Let's get into my NFL Week 15 picks and predictions for Sunday, December 14.
NFL Week 15 Picks & Predictions
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1 p.m. | |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Bills vs. Patriots
If I need a quarterback to just win a game, Josh Allen is probably my choice at this very moment. Historically, that's been a very good bet, as Allen has gone 30-14-2 ATS as an underdog or favorite of less than three points in his career.
Only Tom Brady and Drew Brees have turned a higher profit for bettors. Allen has also gone 18-8-2 ATS on the road in that role and owns a 19-7 ATS (73.1%) record when the spread is under three in either direction.
The Patriots do get the benefit of a bye week and Mike Vrabel has historically performed well following a week off (6-0 ATS), but overall, home teams have been overvalued following a bye week over the past 10 years with a 42% cover rate, including just 40% intra-division where home-field advantage is typically about 50% less.
It's going to be very cold and there might even be some snow. Neither will be an issue for Buffalo and I'd actually prefer some nasty conditions when it comes to backing Allen over Drake Maye.
Winners of 10 straight, New England has had an amazing season so far. However, one can't talk about the 2025 Patriots without mentioning their schedule, which has been the league's easiest no matter how you slice it. Just take a look at the quarterbacks they have defeated besides Allen:
- Jaxson Dart
- Bryce Young
- Joe Flacco
- Justin Fields
- Michael Penix
- Baker Mayfield
- Dillon Gabriel
- Tua Tagovailoa
- Cam Ward
Seven of those 9 are either rookies or no longer starting. The Patriots have also benefited from plenty of luck en route to an 11-2 start. I could talk about the special teams blow ups by the Panthers and Giants (or the missed Falcons XP in a one-point loss), but let's take a look at just fourth down splits.
The New England offense ranks No. 1 in the league on fourth down conversion attempts (14-18), while the defense ranks No. 3 (opponents have gone just 7-22). The Pats have also lost only 7 of 15 fumbles, while recovering 66.7% of their opponent's.
Don't be surprised if the Bills get a few bounces to go their way, which didn't happen in the first meeting where Buffalo lost on a last-second field goal despite 11 penalties and three turnovers.
Drake Maye has been fantastic for almost the entirety of 2025, but he has gotten away with a few throws. On the season, he has 23 touchdowns to just six interceptions, but owns a 22-13 BTT-TWP ratio. In comparison, Allen is at 22-10 and 18-11.
Do I still expect Maye to move the ball against Buffalo's zone-heavy defense? Absolutely. However, the Bills can play their bend-but-don't break style here against a Patriots offense that has major issues finishing drives off with touchdowns in the red zone (24th in red zone TD%) once the field condenses.
New England will also have to play this time around without starting left tackle Will Campbell. That means Vederian Lowe (who is nearly unplayable) will be protecting Drake Maye's blindside on Sunday. That could lead to some key drive-killing sacks against a Buffalo defense that can still get pressure with its defensive line, especially with Bosa expected back in the lineup.
On the other hand, Buffalo ranks in the top-10 in red zone TD% and will face a Patriots defense that ranks dead last in that department despite facing the easiest schedule of opposing offenses. That is where this game may be decided. The Bills will also benefit from having both of its tackles back in the lineup with Spencer Brown set to return on Sunday.
Additionally, the Patriots run defense has fallen off of late since the loss of Milton Williams in the interior. Since Week 11, they rank 31st in Rush Success Rate, which is potentially very problematic against a Bills run-heavy offense.
Go win the game, Josh.
Chargers vs. Chiefs
For the first time in a while, I believe we can back the Chiefs at a reasonable price in a must-win game following five straight non-covers. While Kansas City sits at 6-7 on the season, it still remains one of the three best in the league from a power ratings standpoint.
It's just been extremely unlucky in close games (1-6 in one possession games) against a fairly difficult schedule. Despite that close game misfortune and much tougher schedule, the Chiefs still lead the Chargers by 35 in point differential on the year.
And while the Chiefs' playoff chances are on life support, I don't think they are completely dead just yet. If we assume the Colts are dead due to their schedule and current quarterback situation, the final AFC wild card will likely come down to these two teams.
The Chargers currently hold a three-game lead over the Chiefs, but KC can cut that to two with a victory this week. That's still a sizable gap with only three weeks left in the regular season, but the Chargers have a brutal final stretch with road games against the Broncos and Cowboys plus a home date with the Texans.
That's especially difficult given the current state of their offensive line. It's certainly possible LA finishes 1-2 or even 0-3. Let's call it 1-2 (1-3 including a loss this weekend) with one of the losses coming at Denver.
In that scenario, the Chiefs would need to win out against a relatively easy schedule (Denver, at Tennessee, at Vegas) to finish 10-7 in which case they would win the tiebreaker.
While I'm okay backing the Chiefs at this price, this is as much of a fade of a completely broken Chargers offense that is incapable of running a functional operation behind a decrepit offensive line that has suffered too many key injuries to recover from.
Last week, the Eagles generated nearly a 70% pressure rate (highest of any team this season) to go along with seven sacks and did so without stud Jalen Carter drawing attention in the middle.
Even with Carter in the lineup, the Eagles don't generate as high of a pressure rate as the KC defense. That spells major trouble for Justin Herbert, who will still be dealing with a hand injury (in freezing cold temperatures).
Just think about that game last week. The Eagles turned the ball over five times and still had a chance to win at the end of overtime. The broken Philadelphia offense had a 90 net yards advantage and finished with a whopping 5.5-3.9 yards per play edge.
To illustrate how poor this LA offense has been since the offensive line injuries hit, it ranks 23rd in EPA per Play and 21st in Success Rate since Week 4. For reference, the KC offense ranks in the top-5 in both respective categories.
Things have looked even worse on the road for the Chargers where you don't want to have a dysfunctional offensive line. Over that span, here's what they have done on the road:
It doesn't help that the Chargers will have to travel on a short week following an overtime game as an indoor team to an outdoor stadium in frigid temperatures.
From a matchup perspective, the Chargers play zone at one of the highest rates in the league. While they did mix in a few more man looks last week, I still expect their bread and butter on a majority of snaps, which plays right into the hands of Patrick Mahomes and the current state of this Chiefs offense, which has a success rate of more than 10 percentage points better against zone in addition to a 75% higher EPA per Play.
While Kansas City is also dealing with offensive line injuries, I did like what I saw from Esa Pole at left tackle against the Texans. Plus, it's not like the Chargers defense generates pressure at an elite level (24th).
Give me the Chiefs at home in a plus-matchup and spot against a Chargers offense that likely won't be able to overcome the current state of its offensive line on the road.
