I went 2-1 on props in NFL Week 14 and am now 32-14 (69.6%) for the season, so let's keep rolling! I've compiled a list of player prop picks for NFL Week 15.
Let's get into my NFL player props for Week 15, including picks for Jets vs Jaguars, Cardinals vs Texans, Bills vs Patriots, and Saints vs Panthers.
NFL Player Props — Week 15
- Breece Hall Longest Rush Under 14.5 Yards (-125, DraftKings)
- Jaylin Noel Receiving Yards Over 7.5 (-110, bet365) / Receptions Over 1.5 (+180, bet365)
- Dawson Knox Under 1.5 Receptions (+120 at bet365, +118 at FanDuel)
- Tyler Shough under 22.5 rush yds (-115 at bet365)
Jets vs Jaguars Player Props: Breece Hall Longest Rush
Going back to the Breece Hall longest rush under worked well when Justin Fields isn't QB. This week, rookie Brady Cook gets his first career NFL start.
With Fields as the starting quarterback, Hall cleared this number in five of nine games, but he's only cleared this one time in games four games where Fields wasn't the starting QB.
And it gets even starker when you look at the distributions.
Just one of Hall's 55 rush attempts (1.8%) from at least 15 yards from the end zone has gone for 15+ yards when it's anyone other than Fields under center, compared to 14 out of 132 rush attempts (10.6%) with Fields under center.
The Jets face the Jaguars, who have allowed just five runs of 15+ yards all season that didn't come from QB scrambles, tied for the lowest in the NFL with the Seahawks and Rams.
I'm generously projecting him to stay under this 60.5% of the time, but reality is probably even lower than that.
Pick: Breece Hall Longest Rush Under 14.5 Yards (-125, DraftKings)
Cardinals vs Texans Player Props: Jaylin Noel Receiving Yards
Noel has averaged a 37.6% route share over the last five weeks with all the Texans WRs healthy. However, that's ticked up over the past two weeks to 43.2% and 45.7%, so he may be in line to keep a higher workload.
Even without that the underlying factors are good here for Noel.
First, the Cardinals generate a pressure rate over expected (PrROE) at the 4th lowest rate in the league, so Texans QB C.J. Stroud shouldn't face too much pressure. His completion rate skyrockets to just above 70% from just below 50% when pressured.
Fortunately for Noel, in this five-game stretch, only he and Xavier Hutchinson see their targets per route more than double when Stroud has a clean pocket.
However, unlike Hutchinson, Noel has a positive coverage matchup, racking up almost double the efficiency against Cover 4, which the Cardinals use at the highest rate in the NFL, while Hutchinson mostly does his damage against man coverage, which Arizona uses only 20% of the time (11th lowest).
I also like over 1.5 receptions at +180 at Bet365 or +170 at Hard Rock, but those appear to be the only options as MGM is at just +130 and isn't really any value at that price, so if you don't have 365 or Hard Rock, just roll with the yardage, which is also available at MGM.
If you have yardage only, 1 unit is fine, split your unit between the two at 0.6 on the yards and 0.4 on the receptions.
Picks: Jaylin Noel Receiving Yards Over 7.5 (-110, bet365) / Receptions Over 1.5 (+180, bet365)
Bills vs Patriots Player Props: Dawson Knox Receptions
In two years with Dalton Kincaid as first-look TE, Knox has averaged just 1.45 receptions in games Kincaid played. And the matchup isn't ideal here either, even though Knox had two grabs against the Patriots in their first meeting this year in which Kincaid also played.
In that first meeting, the Patriots played just 5% Cover 2, but since Week 7 they have been the team that plays the second-most Cover 2 in the league at 28.4%.
Bills QB Josh Allen's worst efficiency has been against Cover 2, so the Patriots would be wise to deploy it at a high rate as they have done in the second half of the year.
That's also bad for Knox, as he's had just three targets against Cover 2 since the start of 2024, which encompasses 61 total routes.
I'm projecting Knox right at 1.5 receptions, but that means he's favored to stay under as that's an average projection and not a median.
Sometimes he'll have three or even four grabs, but that's more than offset by the number of times he catches 0 or 1 balls.
At 55.8% to stay under, that's a 10% edge at +118 odds.
Pick: Dawson Knox Under 1.5 Receptions (+120)
Panthers vs Saints Player Props: Tyler Shough Rushing Yards
I'm showing way under this as this line is severely inflated from a 55 yard performance against Tampa Bay who allows a top-two QB adjusted scramble rate in the NFL.
Shough goes from that to a bottom-four matchup for scrambles, with the Panthers allowing both the fourth-lowest raw QB scramble rate and the fourth-lowest QB-adjusted scramble rate.
A lot of that stems from the Panthers lack of pressure (31st in PrROE) and their high use of Cover 3 (2nd most), which keeps an extra man in the box in zone coverage facing the QB.
When QBs do scramble against Carolina, it comes with the fourth-lowest yards per carry in the league.
I'm projecting Shough for 18 with a median closer to 14.5 so there's value at every book out there..
Pick: Tyler Shough Under 22.5 Rush Yards (-115)
Dr Nick's Week 15 Prop Bets
- Breece Hall Longest Rush Under 14.5 Yards (-125, DraftKings)
- Jaylin Noel Receiving Yards Over 7.5 (-110, bet365) / Receptions Over 1.5 (+180, bet365)
- Dawson Knox Under 1.5 Receptions (+120 at bet365, +118 at FanDuel)
- Tyler Shough under 22.5 rush yds (-115 at bet365)
