Titans vs. Bills NFL Odds, Picks, Predictions: How To Bet This Monday Night Football Spread
Getty Images. Pictured: Bills QB Josh Allen, Titans RB Derrick Henry
- Coming off a massive win, Bills stock could be at its peak -- and our expert thinks it's time to sell it.
- After analyzing the Titans vs. Bills odds and matchup, he makes the case for betting on Tennessee to cover.
- Read his full Monday Night Football preview below, complete with his spread pick for this NFL Week 6 matchup.
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For the second straight weekend, the Bills will be out for revenge in primetime on the road against another AFC contender — last season, the Titans blew out the Bills in Nashville on a Tuesday despite dealing with a number of COVID-related issues.
Heading into Week 6, these teams sat at the Nos. 3 and 4 spots in the AFC playoff race, so this game could have massive seeding implications later in the season. Especially when you consider Tennessee’s easy division and Buffalo’s easy remaining schedule, the highly-coveted No. 1 seed is a realistic goal for each.
Dominant Defense Makes Bills Scary
Buffalo comes into this week boasting a 4-1 record. After a fluky season-opening loss to Pittsburgh, the Bills have won four straight by a combined score of 156-41 for an average margin of victory of more than 28 points per game.
I won’t dive as deep into the Bills as I did last week for the Chiefs preview, so check that out if you want a very detailed look at this roster. Bottom line: The Bills are elite — from their coaching staff to their roster to their play-calling.
Their offense is aggressive and relentless with playmakers all over the field. Meanwhile, the defense has been an ascending unit since they made a few key schematic changes during their 2020 bye. It features a pair of rock-solid safeties, a shut-down cornerback and one of the best linebackers in the NFL.
Also, the defensive line — which was the primary weakness last season — has improved with the return of Star Lotulelei inside and the addition of a few promising defensive ends through the draft who have bolstered the pass-rushing prowess and depth.
No matter what statistic you look at, the Bills have had the best defense in the NFL this season. They lead the league in Expected Points Added (EPA) per play and success rate while also topping the DVOA leaderboard (which adjusts for opponent) overall, as well as against the run and pass, per Football Outsiders.
Pairing an elite defense with this explosive offense is a scary thought.
Titans Still Have Potent Offense
The Titans come into this game with a 3-2 record with wins over the Seahawks, Colts and Jaguars. The Titans’ two losses came against the still-undefeated Cardinals as well as the Jets, but I actually give the Titans slight passes on both.
The Arizona loss came in the season opener after Tennessee had recently been dealing with COVID issues and a lot of turnover on offense during the offseason, including a new play-caller after the departure of offensive coordinator Arthur Smith. And the overtime loss in New York came without their two best receivers, Julio Jones and A.J. Brown, both of whom should both be good to go without any limitations on Monday night.
Overall, the offense has performed at about league average, but I wouldn’t read too much into their statistical profile to date given some of the offseason changes and early injuries. This offense is still one of the most potent in the league.
Conversely, the defense is not. The Titans rank 22nd in EPA per play and 13th in success rate on that side of the ball, but the numbers look much worse when you adjust for their opponents.
It’s a bottom-five defense, in my opinion, with a ceiling of slightly below average.
Tennessee just lacks talent across the board. Plus, the Titans really struggle to generate pressure and in coverage — a troubling combination in today’s NFL. Against Buffalo, they will also likely be without Kristian Fulton, who has been their top performing cornerback this season, which may force rookie Caleb Farley into starting duties at one of the corner spots.
Bills vs. Titans Pick
I personally love this Bills team — Buffalo was my only Super Bowl future for a reason. However, after a blowout win on national television over the almighty Chiefs, Bills stock might be at its peak. And as a bettor, I wager on numbers, not teams.
There’s too much value on the home dog Titans to pass up here.
I like to back this Titans team as a dog. For what it’s worth, Mike Vrabel owns a sparkling 13-5 record against the spread (ATS) — a 72.2% success rate — as an underdog of three or more points, covering by an average of more than eight points per game.
The Titans have the offense to keep up with the Bills high-powered attack. King Derrick Henry should have a monster game on the ground against a Bills defense that remains vulnerable against the run, partly by design.
This Tennessee passing offense should continue to improve on a weekly basis with all of its primary parts back in the mix. With both superstar receivers now expected to be fully healthy, look for Tennessee to attack cornerback Levi Wallace. And if needed, Tannehill can sneak in the backdoor if necessary.
Josh Allen also has looked a bit off to start the year in the accuracy department — when receivers aren’t running wide open against Kansas City sieve defense.
A few errant throws in key situations and/or in the red zone could swing this outcome. When you adjust for opponent, this Buffalo offense has played at only a slightly above-average level, so it’s still working some things out. And while I love the Buffalo defense, it has faced three backup quarterbacks in its first five games, so the numbers are artificially high.
Try to see if you can find a +6 (even up to -115), but I still like the Titans down to +5 (shop for the best real-time line here). I was as high on the Bills as anybody coming into the season and still have them rated as the top team in the AFC, but inflation has hit the market, which means it’s time to sell.
Prior to the season, I called for Buffalo to pull off the upset in Kansas City and then lose in a letdown spot in Tennessee. The Bills just won their regular-season Super Bowl — a game they were waiting and preparing for since Stefon Diggs finally stopped watching the Chiefs celebrate after the AFC Championship Game. It wouldn’t shock me if they come out a little flat in their second straight road game after hearing how great they are for a week straight.
I’ll stick with my preseason prediction that Tennessee wins this game, so I don’t mind sprinkling a little on the moneyline as well. But I’m also sticking with my prediction that Allen will be hoisting the Lombardi Trophy in February.
Pick: Titans +5.5 (down to +5)